Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 But you had plenty of successful lays earlier in the day (is this the wrong forum to get into a discussion like this)? Either way, I'll say what I fancy tonight and you can match them up against your lay list Aye go on then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 8, 2008 Author Share Posted July 8, 2008 They're some pretty horrible races at both Southwell and Uttoxeter tonight. However, I shall be on PUNCHING in the 8:40 at Southwell (beaten by John Keats last time out at Doncaster who has since run a couple of good races in much better company than this. My worry would be whether he handles Southwell). Other fancy in the next race is AMWELL BRAVE (pretty mediocre horse but there's not much on his plate here). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 8, 2008 Share Posted July 8, 2008 Neither of those are on my bets for tonight. And you're right: it's shit racing tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 9, 2008 Author Share Posted July 9, 2008 Weather forecasters are derided as often as racing tipsters, but if they are right and the southern half of England has rain from dawn till dusk today the going on the opening day of Newmarket's July meeting is going to be extremely testing by the end of the afternoon. Horses with soft-ground form will certainly be the ones to concentrate on and that's what makes Goodbye Mr Bond (4.55) look such an excellent bet in the final race of the afternoon. Eric Alston's charge is in terrific form at present, having run the well-treated Wasan close last time after victory in a competitive handicap at York. He has the proven stamina to last home if the going gets tough and is still able to race off his last winning handicap mark. The Group 1 Falmouth Stakes is the quality race of the afternoon but there are doubts about all four at the head of the betting. Darjina is the clear form pick but reportedly had a dreadful journey over from France and may not even run if conditions deteriorate too much. Finsceal Beo has a marked dislike for soft conditions, Heaven Sent's connections have warned she is unlikely to be suited by too much rain and Infallible may find her stamina stretched at a mile in a mudbath. With that in mind, a chance is taken on Briseida (3.10) who has to improve on the level of form she showed when winning the German 1,000 Guineas but who will revel in the underfoot conditions if the forecast rain arrives. Kaldoun Kingdom (2.00) romped home by seven lengths at Ayr in the autumn on soft ground and rates a good bet at the morning odds of 16-1. His latest run over a trip too far on fast ground is safely ignored but his form prior to that ties in with a number of fancied horses in this valuable handicap and his trainer is already eyeing up the Ayr Gold Cup. The draw has been kind to him too as low numbers have a good record in this particular race and are likely to be at an even greater advantage on soft going. Tawaash could outclass them here and would be a strong fancy on fast ground. Similar comments apply to Tawaash's stablemate, Red Dune, who is likely to go off favourite in the opener. However, if the rain has got into the ground by the time the meeting starts then Badweia (1.30) would be preferred. She beat Muhajaar in convincing fashion in soft ground at Newbury and the runner-up went on to follow up at Haydock. Ron Cox's tip of the day Infallible 3.10 Newmarket John Gosden's filly very much caught the eye with her burst of speed when making a successful reappearance this term and can return to winning ways if handling the likely cut in the ground. The selection didn't get the run of the race in the 1,000 Guineas but still finished a close fourth and then ran an excellent second to Lush Lashes in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 I've not had a proper look myself yet, so I'll be back later. One for today, though: Ursus 4.05 Catterick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Right, the 1.30 I ended up laying Badweia at 8.8. 2008-07-09 13:39 5610450985 2008-07-09 13:30 GB Newm 9th Jul / 13:30 7f Hcap / Badweia Lay 8.80 10.50 Won 10.50 The2.00 is wide open, but I've gone for Victorian Bounty and Good Gorsoon (both eachway, of course!). Very tempted to lay Tawaash, but 13.0 is too high for me. In the 3.10 I'm with Heaven Sent and I'm quite likely to lay Infallible. Briseida looks a good shot for a place at 4.3 4.55 The fav Goodbye Mr Bond would appear to be the one to beat, but I've gone for a couple of eachway outsiders for a bit of value! Habshan and Billy Dane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 9, 2008 Share Posted July 9, 2008 I've not had a proper look myself yet, so I'll be back later. One for today, though: Ursus 4.05 Catterick. Utter dogshit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 14, 2008 Author Share Posted July 14, 2008 Personally, I'm on Gap Princess in the 3:30 at Catterick and Tawzeea in the 4:30. GAP PRINCESS is racing again today in the 3:40 at Ayr and should go well again with only a three pound rise to contend with. Trip and ground not a problem and Richard Fahey is firing out the winners at the moment. Otherwise, I fancy HOLIDAY COCKTAIL in the 3:10 to follow up last week's win at the main expense again of Annibale Caro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 14, 2008 Share Posted July 14, 2008 GAP PRINCESS is racing again today in the 3:40 at Ayr and should go well again with only a three pound rise to contend with. Trip and ground not a problem and Richard Fahey is firing out the winners at the moment. Otherwise, I fancy HOLIDAY COCKTAIL in the 3:10 to follow up last week's win at the main expense again of Annibale Caro. I agree! Holiday Cocktail and Annibale Caro meet on the same terms, AC is still giving HC 7lbs, I think, so yes they should finish the same way round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 14, 2008 Author Share Posted July 14, 2008 I agree! Surely a first? Guardian has one tip today: The sun may be blazing down outside but it's the height of summer when Newton Abbot make their dough and attract the holiday crowds to go jump racing. The West Country venue is racing on ground with cut on thanks to last week's heavy rain and has attracted good-sized fields for this afternoon's racing. J P McManus has a couple of well-fancied runners and Akram 4.20pm in particular takes the eye. The selection has returned in excellent form over hurdles following a brief foray on the Flat and his victory at Market Rasen last time suggests he is capable of winning more races at this level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 14, 2008 Share Posted July 14, 2008 You won't believe this. Take a seat. I've backed Akram too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 14, 2008 Share Posted July 14, 2008 Holiday Cocktail never really got going and then when it was time to make a move, the jockey got himself boxed in on the rails. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gumbo Posted July 14, 2008 Share Posted July 14, 2008 bloody nags lets hope the 3.40pm tip does better this could be dangerous, WW tips and a Coral right across the road from work! The sooner im back out of the office the better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 14, 2008 Share Posted July 14, 2008 No, the 3.40 one was worse. But good old faithful Dorn Dancer got placed yet again. 2 wins and 7 places from 11 starts this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_boy_84 Posted July 21, 2008 Author Share Posted July 21, 2008 The usual Monday fare is livened up by a competitive sprint handicap at Ayr, and Hamish McGonagall (4.30) can continue his progress through the ranks. A real five-furlongs specialist, Tim Easterby's gelding beat a couple of in-form rivals in grand style at Chester last time. He had run well against older handicappers at Newcastle before that and is improving sufficiently to defy a 5lb rise in the ratings. Provided the drop back to five furlongs doesn't find her out, Jaconet (5.30) should complete her hat-trick at Ayr. The dual 6f scorer won in a fast time here on her last start and the form has worked out well. Tim Walford is a trainer to keep an eye on. With limited resources he gets good results and at Beverley tonight he should go close with Banquet (8.30). Useless in his time at Mick Channon's, Banquet showed some form at Beverley last time, staying on to finish fourth over a mile and a half. He looks to have found his level in this dire contest, a two-miler for maidens. I don't agree with them with the sprint as Ayr: I think that 10/1 is a big price for Look Busy who should appreciate the drop down in class and the better ground than she got in a Group 3 at York a week last Friday. She won a listed contest at Ayr over this distance of the same mark a few weeks ago and, drawn well, should go close again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 It's a hell of a race for a run-of-the-mill Monday, that's for sure! For what it's worth (and based on Saturday's Haydock tips, that's not a fat lot), I can't see Look Busy winning. How's She Cuttin' only has a little over half a length to find on that Ayr race, and while she gave the winner 6lbs that day, she gets 12lbs at revised terms. Similarly, Aegean Dancer is weighted to turn round the form of their meeting at Beverley at the end of May, and Brian Smart's horses are going well at the moment. I also think Swift Princess could go well. Elsewhere, Brian Smart sends out a likely candidate in Ubenkor for the 2.30 at Ayr, while the in-form John Gosden (32% in the last 14 days) has an interesting runner in Citron Presse in the 4.15 at Yarmouth. The Lemon Drop Kid filly has had three starts over a mile in maiden company, but is stepped up to 11f for her handicap debut of a mark of 62. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 I've gone for Leonid Glow in the 2.30, Naughty Thoughts in the 4.15 and Inxile in the 4.30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest kempo Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Traf your old favourite John Keats is running at 4.00 Ayr. Wont be a good price though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Traf your old favourite John Keats is running at 4.00 Ayr. Wont be a good price though. It is, and so is Dorn Dancer. And they're both good prices and worth a bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 I've gone for Leonid Glow in the 2.30, Naughty Thoughts in the 4.15 and Inxile in the 4.30. Leonid Glow won by 4 lengths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest kempo Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 It is, and so is Dorn Dancer.And they're both good prices and worth a bet. Reverse forecast maybe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Reverse forecast maybe. I've had a dabble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 I've had a dabble. Paris Bell looks about ready to start winning again off a decent mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Dorn Dancer was held back too long this time and John Keats's pilot got himself boxed in with nowhere to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest kempo Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Dorn Dancer was held back too long this time and John Keats's pilot got himself boxed in with nowhere to go. Two down. A lot running at 4.30 though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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