Maggie Tate Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Complete blank today. Still, nice track, good day out. Winning money is just a bonus that didn't happen today! Brecan Boy turned over a 2/9 favourite in the first, my 6/1 pick in the 4.50 led for the entirity of the 2m 5f, was hampered by an unseated horse approaching the last and was beaten by a nasal hair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 Monday's Stat of the Day: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-day-26th-march-2012/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 And a roundup of where it's up to: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-day-update-19th-25th-march-2012/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members bolty58 Posted March 26, 2012 Members Share Posted March 26, 2012 I dips me lid Herr Trafster. $100 on Meridiem at $5.20. Many thanks mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 Monday's Stat of the Day: http://www.geegeez.c...6th-march-2012/ 7/2 winner today: betfair paid 5.43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Tate Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I got 4/1, many thanks Geegeez. With course record I think even 7/2 was generous. I shan't complain. Just bit by bit repair the Downpatrick damage... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 Good Arrows, 7/2 was more than generous. In fact the 11/4 on offer this morning was too long for a horse that has now not been outside of the top two in 6 races at Towcester. Watch for it reappearing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 Another course specialist for you today, but he's got a bit more to find than yesterday's, but the price will reflect that, if he gets home! http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-day-27th-march-2012/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Tate Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 How can an 11/1 shot in a field of that size be 2/1 to be placed?! Now I know how Betfair makes its money! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 5/2 place only at Ladbrokes. The reason betfair's place price is so low is because unlike a traditional E/W bet, there's no losing win element to your bet if it comes 3rd. ?10 E/w today at 11/1 pays back ?32 if it gets placed only ie ?12 profit on ?20 or 1.6/1 overall A ?20 place only bet will return more. Obviously if it wins, you lose out. I'd advise using Best Odds Guaranteed bookies for the E/W bets, but do separate win & place bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 How can an 11/1 shot in a field of that size be 2/1 to be placed?! Now I know how Betfair makes its money! Is it not a fifth of the odds in a 9-runner handicap? 2/1 is pretty good in that case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 It is 1/5 odds at bookies, but betfair's place price is 2/1. Take Ladbrokes 5/2 anyway! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 It is 1/5 odds at bookies, but betfair's place price is 2/1. Aye, I get that, but, given that the Betfair layer doesn't necessarily have the safety net of a losing 'win' bet to offset placed runners, I'd say that was a decent price rather than the swizz Maggie suggests. 5/2 with Ladbrokes is obviously better. What if there are two non-runners, though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 No, I agree with you. I tried to make out earlier that 2/1 was decent. If there's non-runners, you still get your 2/1 at betfair, too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 I was almost talking to myself about the non-runner thing! It's always irked me that Rule 4 applies when the terms change for the bookie, but that there's an assumption that I'd have made the same bet in, say, a 16-runner handicap as I would in a 15-runner handicap. Carry on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 The rule 4 deductions and the odds paid for a place are just two of the things that irritate me about betting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L/H White Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Another course specialist for you today, but he's got a bit more to find than yesterday's, but the price will reflect that, if he gets home! http://www.geegeez.c...7th-march-2012/ Lumped ?15 E/W. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breightmet Boy Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Lumped ?15 E/W. I've gone ?10 EW. I've also had a little cheeky ?2 on Tottenham HT Bolton FT at 66/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 So, no pressure on me today, then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breightmet Boy Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 So, no pressure on me today, then? It's the money I was gonna lend Spider for his sons shoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 No horse of mine will ever win if Spiders' lads shoes depend on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members bolty58 Posted March 27, 2012 Members Share Posted March 27, 2012 Bank currently 27.8% up on this weeks efforts Traf so, well done mate. Keep em coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 I've just had a nibble at the 4/1 (BOG) on offer from bet365 for Lady Mandy in the 6.10 Kempton on Wednesday evening. If anybody wants my reasons, I'll gladly explain in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Gretar Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Hope it's not a Manilow-esque reason, go forth Ms Traf, just had a score out of curiosity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Firstly: Stat of the Day: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-day-28th-march-2012/ Secondly the 6.10 Kempton race as above: The horse had 3 runs within a month last October/November, all over a very unsuitable 6 furlongs to get a handicap mark. The yard has then left the horse off the track for 20 weeks waiting for the right race. Lady Mandy is owned by Dr Marwan Koukash: a very shrewd operator and who names his better new horses after family members. His wife's name is Mandy and the horse is entered in 3 big Tattersalls sales races. This probably looks over optimistic for a 48-rated horse but a step up to 10 furlongs with hanagan on board should do the trick today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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