Traf Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 OK, here goes... Racing trainers are pretty much set in their ways and rarely vary their training tactics from one year to the next. It's also impossible to keep thier horses in top condition all year round and their yard will be "in form" at a specific time of year in correspondence with their training methods. Jeremy Gask's horses tend to go very well in January, In January alone (2009-13) All races 13 winners from 65 races = 20% strike rate and 16pts profit ie at £10/race: £650 total stakes, £810 returned = £160 profit (24.6% profit) 26/65 were successful as E/W bets = 40% Strike rate. These produced 24pts profit (18.5% profit) If you only backed these horses when they ran at odds between 13/8 and 12/1: 12/43 winners = 27.9% and 36.5pts (84.9%) profit 21/43 E/W success = 48.8% and 46.6pts (54.2%) profit Handicap races only 12/54 = 22.2% and 25.5pts (47.22%) profit 22/54 E/W success = 40.7% and 36pts (33.33%) profit Handicaps at odds of 13/8 to 12/1 12/37 = 32.4% and 42.5pts (114.9%) profit 19/37 E/W success = 51.4% and 52.1pts (70.4%) profit Therefore, you shoud back all Jeremy Gask's horses when running in handicap races in January when their Starting Price is between 13/8 and 12/1 Of course you don't know the SP before the race starts, but you can generally make a good guess whther it'll fall in the required odds parameters. 3/1 winner in the 2.00 Lingfield today. Was widely available at 6/1 this morning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Two Jeremy Gask winners from six runners fitting the recommended criteria so far in January (SPs 3/1 and 9/1). Gask's next handicap runner is Foxtrot India in the 3.10 at Lingfield on Wednesday, though it would be a big surprise if he was priced up within the suggested range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Foxtrot India backed down to 12/1 from upwards of 20/1 this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Foxtrot India backed down to 12/1 from upwards of 20/1 this morning. I can't see it winning though. Hopefully it'll be over 12/1 later and I won't have to back it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Sixth of seven, beaten around seven lengths. Went off at 5/1! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 It was never a 5/1 horse. I had it as 18/1 or higher! Both racing post and sporting life had it in the 20's, I'd marked in as coming last to be honest, so where that price came from, I don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It was never a 5/1 horse. I had it as 18/1 or higher! Both racing post and sporting life had it in the 20's, I'd marked in as coming last to be honest, so where that price came from, I don't know. Lingfield betting ring lurking on here? Forecast at 25/1 and has barely beaten another horse home since showing promise in a couple of races as a 2yo. Headgear does sometimes make a difference, granted, but it wasn't a magic hood! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Toga Tiger has just gone in for Gask at 4/1 at Kempton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magic legs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I think Fortuna Dusseldorf are a decent bet at 5/4 to bt Augsburg, who have 3pts and 6 goals from 8 away games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Jeremy Gask runs two at Wolverhampton today - Exkaliber in the 3.40 and Precision Five in the 5.10. The latter will be a shortish price having won twice at Lingfield and placed twice at Wolves in her last five runs (4th of 14 round Kempton in the other). Exkaliber’s form doesn’t read nearly so well but his last run, behind some fair horses in this grade at Lingfield, would give him a chance here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Enzo, You like this Gask angle, don't you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm interested in how it plays out, aye. The numbers you put up suggested it was worth a look, and anyone following it would have turned a fair profit thus far. There's more value in following trends for 'unfashionable' trainers, obviously. "Paul Nicholls does well during December with horses priced between 4/7 and 6/4" might not have been so intriguing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm interested in how it plays out, aye. The numbers you put up suggested it was worth a look, and anyone following it would have turned a fair profit thus far. There's more value in following trends for 'unfashionable' trainers, obviously. "Paul Nicholls does well during December with horses priced between 4/7 and 6/4" might not have been so intriguing! Yes, Gask is 3/8 in these conditions this month showing a profit of 11pts at SP and a profit of 16.6pts at betfair SP. So, the angle has worked well. However, Mark Johnston's horses won 30/73 in the previous 4 Januarys when in handicaps under 12/1 for a 40pt profit and he's 0/9 this month! Just somethnig to bear in mind, when I give you one to follow in February! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Went off Gask a bit yesterday! He runs Prince of Burma in the 3.30 at Lingfield today, with Hayley Turner booked for her first ride since November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Creek Falcon in the 5.00 at Wolverhampton on Friday David O'Meara seemed cautiously optimistic this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zurichwhite Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Went off Gask a bit yesterday! He runs Prince of Burma in the 3.30 at Lingfield today, with Hayley Turner booked for her first ride since November. His horses seem to be punted down to prohibitive prices at the moment. This one was backed and lost though Turner rode it like a dog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Just one today. Anyone following might hope Berberana goes off bigger than the recommended 12/1 limit - she's the rank outsider in a field of five for the 3.45 at Lingfield. Three winners from eleven for an 8pt profit so far this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 His horses seem to be punted down to prohibitive prices at the moment. This one was backed and lost though Turner rode it like a dog. Today's opened at 10/1 and went off at 5/1 before coming home in her own sweet time. Traf, I know the market isn't much of a guide at midweek all-weather tracks, but how many folk have you told about this long-winded way of finishing up with what you set off with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's fairly common knowledge, but not enough to make it half in price. The fav was very weak and drifted from 4/6 to 5/4, which is almost a doubling in price, but there was a non-runner at 11/2. So even under normal circumstances it would have come into at least 6/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 She opened on course at 10s, though. Was there a withdrawal? I thought 10s was short enough, even in a four-runner race! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Looking at the betting patterns, the Gask horse was still 10/1 less than 10 mins before the off. The favourite drfited badly in price and the late money went on Gask's horse. That money won't be from Geegeez readers, they'd have been on earlier and for small-ish stakes. I wouldn't be surprised if the drop in odds just resulted from 2 or 3 decen sized bets rather than a sustained push. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Oh, and I wouldn't be in any great rush to back Gabbiano in the 3.05 today either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enzo gambaro Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 (edited) Aye. He's come in two points since I last looked half an hour ago, mind! I'm quite interested in Milton Bradley's at a big price. Edited January 25, 2013 by enzo gambaro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Tate Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 So Heffernan makes seven jockeys done for corruption in two years and according to yer man on The Morning Line several of these have been straight up deliberately losing jobs. Low grade all weather racing is targeted, question must be asked because I can't believe any fucker is paying money to attend Wolves and Lingfield four times a week, perhaps these meetings are more trouble than they're worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Tate Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 While I'm here, going Rive de Sivola and Mr Watson today at Cheltenham (how often does McCoy carry 10st 3?), will probably go Grands Cru as well if the price drifts a wee bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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