L/H White Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 the 3rd major of the year starts Thursday PP, Billy's & 365 all gone 7 places for now I'm on Rickie Fowler at 40/1 Will have a couple more before Thursday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Betfair sportsbook have gone 8 places. A few long shots Robert Karlsson 100/1 Shane Lowry 140/1 Jamie Donaldson 80/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L/H White Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 Donaldson performed very well in the masters I think I'm gonna back Jiminez also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jules_darby Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I was around the corner from Hoylake yesterday with my Father in Law His golf club marshal one of the holes when the open is there and as such he says Hoylake is in very good nick (as you'd expect) and if the wind doesn't blow, there'll be very good scores At Hoylake there's always a premium for being on the short stuff off the tee; Tiger practiced yesterday without a Driver. Also when he won @ Hoylake he only used it once. He's very rusty though. For that accuracy, you can imagine Westwood looking good off the tee again, but can he putt well enough? Not for me.... Rose is obviously in great form, but I'm not sure he can pull it off either. Going to review a bit more and decide Wednesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I was around the corner from Hoylake yesterday with my Father in Law His golf club marshal one of the holes when the open is there and as such he says Hoylake is in very good nick (as you'd expect) and if the wind doesn't blow, there'll be very good scores At Hoylake there's always a premium for being on the short stuff off the tee; Tiger practiced yesterday without a Driver. Also when he won @ Hoylake he only used it once. He's very rusty though. For that accuracy, you can imagine Westwood looking good off the tee again, but can he putt well enough? Not for me.... Rose is obviously in great form, but I'm not sure he can pull it off either. Going to review a bit more and decide Wednesday Hitting his 3 iron 270 up at the Scottish open. Didn't miss many fairways either. He is swinging very solid at the moment. Same tactics that he used to win at Merion would work a treat here. I expect most players will be hitting a lot off irons off the tee. They all have a plan nowadays, there wont be many blatting driver off every tee. If theres no wind its literally wide open and anybody could win as it will just be a shootout. Cant see it being as calm as last time looking at early forecast though so somebody with a low ball flight and links style experience will win imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jules_darby Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Hitting his 3 iron 270 up at the Scottish open. Didn't miss many fairways either. He is swinging very solid at the moment. Same tactics that he used to win at Merion would work a treat here. I expect most players will be hitting a lot off irons off the tee. They all have a plan nowadays, there wont be many blatting driver off every tee. If theres no wind its literally wide open and anybody could win as it will just be a shootout. Cant see it being as calm as last time looking at early forecast though so somebody with a low ball flight and links style experience will win imo. Yep; agree with all of that It was very windy over there yesterday but who knows I didn't see any of the Scottish Open; is Aberdeen as tight as Hoylake? FWIW: I think Hoylake is a pretty boring course and I hope the wind does get up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Yep; agree with all of that It was very windy over there yesterday but who knows I didn't see any of the Scottish Open; is Aberdeen as tight as Hoylake? FWIW: I think Hoylake is a pretty boring course and I hope the wind does get up Yeah it was tight enough and wind made it pretty tricky for the first 3 days. Perfect preparation for Hoylake. From what I heard the rough is much thicker at Hoylake so those that do miss fairways will be penalised even more than the week just gone. The last round was easy for them though with no wind and overnight rain softening the course. Will be the same story at Hoylake if theres no wind. Its not the best open rota course but I still think it will hurt a few Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L/H White Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Betfred have gone 8 places until midnight tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalfordOriginal Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Betfred have gone 8 places until midnight tomorrow What does it pay at for an 8th place? If you backed a 10/1 player? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jules_darby Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Tyls Bernard Gallagher on the wireless this morning saying that to be competitive they're going to have to get the driver out on the tee more this year. The course is only 150 yards longer than in 2008 so not sure I get why exactly, but he certainly knows more than me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Tyls Bernard Gallagher on the wireless this morning saying that to be competitive they're going to have to get the driver out on the tee more this year. The course is only 150 yards longer than in 2008 so not sure I get why exactly, but he certainly knows more than me. The course back then was baked as we had a really hot summer so the players could hit irons off the tee and the ball would roll 40-50 yards after landing. Apparently this time the fairways have got a bit more juice so the ball is not running as much. Heard a few interviews with players saying its quite lush on the fairways so it seems true. I think they were a bit pissed off Tiger won it last time playing anti-golf as well imo. The greens will still be hard though so the players who can whip the driver out and keep it in play will have a massive advantage when hitting into the greens with a short iron rather than a long one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 What does it pay at for an 8th place? If you backed a 10/1 player? Its 1/4 of the odds for a place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jules_darby Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 The course back then was baked as we had a really hot summer so the players could hit irons off the tee and the ball would roll 40-50 yards after landing. Apparently this time the fairways have got a bit more juice so the ball is not running as much. Heard a few interviews with players saying its quite lush on the fairways so it seems true. I think they were a bit pissed off Tiger won it last time playing anti-golf as well imo. The greens will still be hard though so the players who can whip the driver out and keep it in play will have a massive advantage when hitting into the greens with a short iron rather than a long one. Ah yeah it was scorchio wasn't it I get the point about hitting a shorter iron in, but that';s hardly unique to this course / these conditions Also, never heard course management described as anti golf before! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 (edited) Ah yeah it was scorchio wasn't it I get the point about hitting a shorter iron in, but that';s hardly unique to this course / these conditions Also, never heard course management described as anti golf before! Its not unique to this type of course no but the advantage is still there if you can knock it closer off the tee. The difference in putts made by a professional golfer from say 5-10ft compared to 10-15ft is pretty big for a game that comes down to fine margins. I think its something like 30% more likely to hole the putt so over 72 holes that can make a big difference to the score. The guys hitting shorter irons in are likely to take advantage as they will knock it closer more often if they can balance hitting driver with not carving it into the bundu. Tiger cant hit a driver for shit so I don't think we will see his much again if at all. Theres nothing wrong with what Tiger did but I think organisers set courses up so players have to at some point at least take a risk and take the course on. He made a mockery of it last time imo so this time they will set it up where course management is still key but "bitching out" with irons off every tee will put you at a big disadvantage. There was also zero wind last time but that is extremely unlikely to be the case again. Hitting an iron into wind on a long par 4 isn't gonna cut the mustard for example :-) Edited July 16, 2014 by tylswhite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jules_darby Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Its not unique to this type of course no but the advantage is still there if you can knock it closer off the tee. The difference in putts made by a professional golfer from say 5-10ft compared to 10-15ft is pretty big for a game that comes down to fine margins. I think its something like 30% more likely to hole the putt so over 72 holes that can make a big difference to the score. The guys hitting shorter irons in are likely to take advantage as they will knock it closer more often if they can balance hitting driver with not carving it into the bundu. Tiger cant hit a driver for shit so I don't think we will see his much again if at all. Theres nothing wrong with what Tiger did but I think organisers set courses up so players have to at some point at least take a risk and take the course on. He made a mockery of it last time imo so this time they will set it up where course management is still key but "bitching out" with irons off every tee will put you at a big disadvantage. There was also zero wind last time but that is extremely unlikely to be the case again. Hitting an iron into wind on a long par 4 isn't gonna cut the mustard for example :-) Of course the advantage is there; it's always about risk versus reward in golf; the wind makes huge difference In fact apparently Tiger got his Driver out a couple of times yesterday in practice and also mentioned that the greens were taking pitch marks, so that's massively different We'd all rather see 320+ yard drives going all over the show than 3 irons 230 yards off the tee but I've still never heard anyone term Tiger's win as anti-golf; Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Of course the advantage is there; it's always about risk versus reward in golf; the wind makes huge difference In fact apparently Tiger got his Driver out a couple of times yesterday in practice and also mentioned that the greens were taking pitch marks, so that's massively different We'd all rather see 320+ yard drives going all over the show than 3 irons 230 yards off the tee but I've still never heard anyone term Tiger's win as anti-golf; Organisers can be quite cunning in the lead up to a big tournament. Chances are they will stop watering the greens sometime soon and they could be very different. I will be astounded if the players are leaving pitch marks tomorrow because if the greens are soft it will be a birdie fest. That's why some players don't bother practicing at the course all that much. Bubba has been over at Wallasey golf club playing this week a couple of times as an example. Variety is the spice of life and using every club in the bag is usually a good example of a testing course imo. Tiger last time found an easier way to win and hats off to him but it made for incredibly dull viewing. To win "the open" you should be tested to the limit imo. if Tiger gets the driver out a couple of times per round this week it will cost him shots, he just cant control it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jules_darby Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Organisers can be quite cunning in the lead up to a big tournament. Chances are they will stop watering the greens sometime soon and they could be very different. I will be astounded if the players are leaving pitch marks tomorrow because if the greens are soft it will be a birdie fest. That's why some players don't bother practicing at the course all that much. Bubba has been over at Wallasey golf club playing this week a couple of times as an example. Variety is the spice of life and using every club in the bag is usually a good example of a testing course imo. Tiger last time found an easier way to win and hats off to him but it made for incredibly dull viewing. To win "the open" you should be tested to the limit imo. if Tiger gets the driver out a couple of times per round this week it will cost him shots, he just cant control it. Bubba isn't the only one that's played Wallassey - it's not unusual at all for players to come over and play at other local courses. I've played Wallasey myself and it's a good links However, fore the majority they don't do that "instead" of practicing on the Championship course; it's in addition and often for social or charity reasons. If you go to a major championship the practice rounds are fascinating - they often play the course to how they believe it will be set; not to how it is on that particular day... Of course they will set the course according to how they want it to play and what sort of scores they want to see; I expect the stimp to be high but not ridiculous....last time it was 10-13.5; my club for example was 12 last weekend... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylswhite Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Bubba isn't the only one that's played Wallassey - it's not unusual at all for players to come over and play at other local courses. I've played Wallasey myself and it's a good links However, fore the majority they don't do that "instead" of practicing on the Championship course; it's in addition and often for social or charity reasons. If you go to a major championship the practice rounds are fascinating - they often play the course to how they believe it will be set; not to how it is on that particular day... Of course they will set the course according to how they want it to play and what sort of scores they want to see; I expect the stimp to be high but not ridiculous....last time it was 10-13.5; my club for example was 12 last weekend... Yeah I know, theres a few been there this week a mate of mine is a member there and theres been a few snippets on twitter. Bjorn and a few others were at Caldy the other day as well for some Callaway event I think. I didn't say they did it "instead" but they do choose to play other places when they could be practicing every day on the course that the championship is held on if they wanted to. Most of them just play practice rounds to get a feel for the place as on the day the conditions could be anything with the wind and setup. Hoylake gets plenty of wind as well usually so that will play a big part this time (I hope). The greens will be hard to hold with long irons even for these guys. They will be trying to tempt them into using driver at least a few times. Most clubs were pretty baked on Saturday and greens hard and running fast I reckon. Sunday was a different story though after the mass downpour in the night. It is like the grand national of golf though, picking a winner is like trying to guess Dougies starting 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jules_darby Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Yep, very hard to pick 'em; though as with every year I will attempt in vain this evening, giving them the final nail in their Open coffin! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarian1979 Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Dufner (main bet), mcdowell, stenson, furyk Going on Sunday. Playing with mates saturday at Woolton, few beers saturday night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freds dad Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Yep, very hard to pick 'em; though as with every year I will attempt in vain this evening, giving them the final nail in their Open coffin! Let us know where your money goes and I can place mine elsewhere. Are you planning to go? I'm there on Saturday but keeping an eye on the weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jules_darby Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 I had corporate hospitality on Sunday, but have (yet another) knee operation that has been arranged badly for Saturday so unfortunately not To be honest, Sunday is my least favourite day to go - rather be @ home in front of the TV to watch the scores Was hoping to get up yesterday or today for practice but have too many meetings Boooooooooooooooo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter RONNIE PHILLIPS Posted July 16, 2014 Site Supporter Share Posted July 16, 2014 Gone for Rose, Spieth, Day & Jiminez so avoid them like the plague!! That said after a long barren run I've picked up a few Bob on the last couple of majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magic legs Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 McDowell for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ex_midlandwhite Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Good read this thread, good analysis Jules and Tyls. Each way bet on Westwood for me, heart over head this time. Maybe a couple of bets on Stenson and Kaymer too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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