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Went to a business breakfast this morning with a guy from the Bank of England as speaker.

 

Other than confirming my thoughts that the only difference between an economic guru with a flair for graphs and charts, and a groundworker from Leigh is his guesses are based marginally more on stats than gut instinct, they haven't a fucking clue what to expect. Interest rates could go up. They also could go down. Well fuck me that's cleared that one up.

 

His wonderful array of stats and projections were a million miles away from the doomsday predictions we had from the clever folk pro-Brexit. He admitted the growth had been good (could have been better) and that the low pound actually helps uk exports and investment. So whilst a pint of Spanish piss might be 40p dearer than last year on the whole the sky is far from falling in.

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Went to a business breakfast this morning with a guy from the Bank of England as speaker.

 

Other than confirming my thoughts that the only difference between an economic guru with a flair for graphs and charts, and a groundworker from Leigh is his guesses are based marginally more on stats than gut instinct, they haven't a fucking clue what to expect. Interest rates could go up. They also could go down. Well fuck me that's cleared that one up.

 

His wonderful array of stats and projections were a million miles away from the doomsday predictions we had from the clever folk pro-Brexit. He admitted the growth had been good (could have been better) and that the low pound actually helps uk exports and investment. So whilst a pint of Spanish piss might be 40p dearer than last year on the whole the sky is far from falling in.

 

Which ties in with what the bloke from HSBC told me the other week.

 

Here's a mad thought 

 

Maybe Brexit means fuck all to the global finance machine and we are massively overstating our position and importance within the economic playbook worldwide.

 

I mean, it's not like the media these days have a tendency to over react now, is it?

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Which ties in with what the bloke from HSBC told me the other week.

 

Here's a mad thought 

 

Maybe Brexit means fuck all to the global finance machine and we are massively overstating our position and importance within the economic playbook worldwide.

 

I mean, it's not like the media these days have a tendency to over react now, is it?

 

The Big Bang in 1986 kind of worked, but certainly not as expected.

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Which ties in with what the bloke from HSBC told me the other week.

 

Here's a mad thought

 

Maybe Brexit means fuck all to the global finance machine and we are massively overstating our position and importance within the economic playbook worldwide.

 

I mean, it's not like the media these days have a tendency to over react now, is it?

The main issue for me is that at the first sign of any trouble like a bank or large company hitting the wall every fucker will shit their pants like they did last time and pull contracts, loans and mortgages and stop paying the window cleaner, irrespective of what is actually going on out there In the big bad world.

 

Our people don't have the common sense to appreciate changes in economy for good or bad. Folk just become selfish, shit their pants and moan they're skint. That's when it all fucks up.

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In theory that should have happened when doomsday was predicted but domestic spend hasn't changed.

 

It's almost like Mr and Mrs normal couldn't give a fuck and carried on regardless.

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In theory that should have happened when doomsday was predicted but domestic spend hasn't changed.

 

It's almost like Mr and Mrs normal couldn't give a fuck and carried on regardless.

 

You seem to keep forgetting that WE'RE STILL IN THE EU.

 

Against all medical advice, I have decided to shoot myself in the head. I haven't done it yet, but I'm still alive, so those medical "experts" must be wrong.

Edited by Cheese

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You seem to keep forgetting that WE'RE STILL IN THE EU. Maybe you should bare that in mind whilst claiming that Brexit is going so swimmingly.

 

bear

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They want fifty billion quid off us, tell them to get fucked.

 

If we deduct a fraction of the amount France didn't pay as agreed for Calais, when it was ceded (as part of a peace treaty between France, Netherlands and Spain for a war in which England was not involved), plus compound interest at Court rates for 420 years, it will be palatable.

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bear

 

How did you know? Have you spotted me on Grinder?

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Saying that, I'm not a violent man, but if David Davis told me to get fucked I'd jump on him and get him in a headlock drop then give him a reet good few digs about his head and body and other humiliation tactics until he started crying or the police arrived...

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You seem to keep forgetting that WE'RE STILL IN THE EU.

 

Against all medical advice, I have decided to shoot myself in the head. I haven't done it yet, but I'm still alive, so those medical "experts" must be wrong.

If I really could be arsed I'd go into more detail about what the banks position was, is, and predicted but neing a fucking awkward cunt it'd be wasted on you.

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If we deduct a fraction of the amount France didn't pay as agreed for Calais, when it was ceded (as part of a peace treaty between France, Netherlands and Spain for a war in which England was not involved), plus compound interest at Court rates for 420 years, it will be palatable.

They never paid us for producing 'Allo Allo' either, which reportedly boosted their tourism industry by an estimated £8.7 bn per annum between 1986-1990.

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If I really could be arsed I'd go into more detail about what the banks position was, is, and predicted but neing a fucking awkward cunt it'd be wasted on you.

 

No worries.

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In theory that should have happened when doomsday was predicted but domestic spend hasn't changed.

 

It's almost like Mr and Mrs normal couldn't give a fuck and carried on regardless.

The price of a pint on holiday is the least of anyone's worries when it comes to the weak pound

 

Its starting to come through at the tills with everything bought in $ from Petrol, Gas, Electricity & food

 

Mr & Mrs normal don't give a fuck yet as they generally don't know the price of these things they just pay when they get to the till or the direct debit goes out

 

Inflation is going up at a fair rate, currently at 2% now which is broadly on target but it's the rate that it's accelerating which causes concern, it was at 0% not long a go. Where it stops nobody knows but if it continues to kick up further to say 4-5% then that has a negative effect on the economy

 

Mr and Mrs normal are left with less in the bank at the end of the month than they expected, a few months go by and the issue is magnified which usually means they need to look at spending habits. Potentially put back the new car, work on the house, holiday etc

 

Whilst 4-5% doesn't sound a lot it's enough to tip GDP growth negative

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I'd send any from Tony Blair, Richard Branston or our very own Cheese to deliver the letter

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I'd send any from Tony Blair, Richard Branston or our very own Cheese to deliver the letter

 

 

Subliminal undertones there. Don't think I didn't pick up on the cheese and pickle subtlety there.

 

Which side are you on? The UK will never be in a pickle  ;)

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Are bananas riced in dollars, wouldn't want them getting too expensive at this important time.

 

Indeed, although they did say the other day that negotiations could extend beyond the 2 years  -  I have a horrible feeling that we'll still be fucking around in a few years time, and that Cheese's bumhole will remain 'nana free

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Indeed, although they did say the other day that negotiations could extend beyond the 2 years - I have a horrible feeling that we'll still be fucking around in a few years time, and that Cheese's bumhole will remain 'nana free

I expect he'll have been practicing

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The price of a pint on holiday is the least of anyone's worries when it comes to the weak pound

 

Its starting to come through at the tills with everything bought in $ from Petrol, Gas, Electricity & food

 

Mr & Mrs normal don't give a fuck yet as they generally don't know the price of these things they just pay when they get to the till or the direct debit goes out

 

Inflation is going up at a fair rate, currently at 2% now which is broadly on target but it's the rate that it's accelerating which causes concern, it was at 0% not long a go. Where it stops nobody knows but if it continues to kick up further to say 4-5% then that has a negative effect on the economy

 

Mr and Mrs normal are left with less in the bank at the end of the month than they expected, a few months go by and the issue is magnified which usually means they need to look at spending habits. Potentially put back the new car, work on the house, holiday etc

 

Whilst 4-5% doesn't sound a lot it's enough to tip GDP growth negative

 

Inflation is measured as growth in a specific range of products over a 12 month period.

Raging inflation, such as was experienced in the 1970s, comes only when specific factors are at play.

The reason, at that time, was outrageous demands by Trade Unions made against very weak governments of both major parties..

It almost killed the car industry, and condemned mining and heavy industry to a terminal decline.

Raging inflation is dangerous, but one-off increases will not cause inflation to rise beyond 12 months.

Loss of belief is the only reason it could begin again now (remoaners please note).

Inflation at 0% is not a virtue, and neither are interest rates at very low rates.

The target of 2% inflation is ill-founded - it can be made to sound good, but it is wrong in principle.

As long as inflation is within a range of 3% to 5% (so effectively targeted as 4%) then I am happy.

Most private sector defined benefit pension schemes protect pensions against inflation up to 5%.

[i am in the fortunate position that mine, providing almost 75% of my total income, is protected up to 7.5%, and my SERPS optout annuity increases at 8.5% every year irrespective of inflation.]

I didn't see any media comment about the change in the measuring of inflation which the Office for National Statistics introduced last month. Housing costs, which Osborne cut out by switching from RPI to CPI in 2010, have been reintroduced by switching to CPIH, which includes notional rent cost of housing. They mentioned this in their monthly announcement, but did so when the two indices coincided.

Edited by MalcolmW

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Whilst I agree to a certain extent that 3-5% shouldn't be an issue I think it would cause us many problems in the short / medium term

 

Primarily what happens with interest rates, surely they would have to follow at least some of the way with inflation so savers are not losing money in real terms year on year

 

What then would higher interest rates do to the economy, primarily the mortgage market. Last time interest rates got that high the banking system collapsed. Whilst I'd like to think those lessons have been learnt I'd not like to see us test it any time soon

 

If rates do go up by 2-3% then this will increase mortgage payments, on top of higher costs of goods from a weak pound, squeezing household incomes further reducing consumption, production and jobs

 

Perhaps they just screw savers even more leaving interest rates lower than inflation by 3-5%

 

Interest rates aside wages would also need to start increasing in line with inflation of 3-5% that puts further strain on businesses who then need to pass the additional wage costs at the tills

 

I don't think it's as easy as saying inflation can be at 3-5% and everything will be fine, there are many consequences of a move like that

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Tusk comments we miss you already, no surprise you have a big financial hole to fill, finally some reasonably sensible comments from the EU I feel they are now coming round to the fact that a sensible deal needs to be struck and finally some respect for the UK we have not had much respect for the last 30 years I can remember. A Historic and a happy day for me. 

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Hopefully we can now crack on with it, I've no doubt that both sides (UK and EU) will at times be complete arseholes during these negotiations, hopefully common sense can and will prevail though, and we can get back to some sort of normality.

 

Hopefully one of the first things that can be agreed is that EU nationals currently here, and UK nationals over on the continent can happily stay put  -  that would be a decent start, and hopefully allow for things to move forward in a positive way

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Whilst I agree to a certain extent that 3-5% shouldn't be an issue I think it would cause us many problems in the short / medium term

 

Primarily what happens with interest rates, surely they would have to follow at least some of the way with inflation so savers are not losing money in real terms year on year

 

What then would higher interest rates do to the economy, primarily the mortgage market. Last time interest rates got that high the banking system collapsed. Whilst I'd like to think those lessons have been learnt I'd not like to see us test it any time soon

 

If rates do go up by 2-3% then this will increase mortgage payments, on top of higher costs of goods from a weak pound, squeezing household incomes further reducing consumption, production and jobs

 

Perhaps they just screw savers even more leaving interest rates lower than inflation by 3-5%

 

Interest rates aside wages would also need to start increasing in line with inflation of 3-5% that puts further strain on businesses who then need to pass the additional wage costs at the tills

 

I don't think it's as easy as saying inflation can be at 3-5% and everything will be fine, there are many consequences of a move like that

 

I am not saying it will be fine, simply that it can be fine.

Obviously raging inflation will pass 3 and 5 if it is on its way to double figures.

I am not interested in savers' rates, but do see a start to increasing mortgage rates gently as necessary.

The banking system collapsed because no-one involved properly understood the products they were marketing.

Mortgages, especially in the USA but also here, were granted to punters who obviously could not cope with an increase in rates.

The bundling of them to mitigate risk was almost totally ineffective, and in the end no bank would loan money to another, because none knew which were actually safe, which they all claimed until the apocalypse.

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