Melbourne Cup 2016

[bolty58]

Apologies - I should have told you about my Melbourne Cup fancy before it won the Caulfield Cup last Saturday at tumbled in to 6.00. I have been backing Jameka on Betfair for the Melbourne Cup since June and have average odds of just over 26.00.

 

It's been penalised 1,5kgs for the big one after winning the $3M event last Saturday. Even though 53,5kgs would be a weight carrying record for a 4yo mare in a Melbourne Cup (the last 4yo mare to do it was Light Fingers in 1965 and she carried 52.5kgs), she is a brute and I have no doubt she can carry the weight to victory. She was startling in the Caulfield Cup and went past Scottish like he was nailed to the fence:-

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm2xGjmhtY4

 

If you like something a bit longer than 6.00, another local called Almoonqith has all the right credentials and is just hitting it straps now at the perfect time. It runs fourth in the clip above and is only just reaching full fitness. A lot of improvement to come there.

 

The internationals are always a threat and I note that Qewy for Charlie Appleby won one of the lead ups (Geelong Cup) in the Godolphin colours earlier today ridden by Kerrin McEvoy. This was the same route Media Puzzle took for its Melbourne Cup win for Dermot Weld.

 

Can't see anything catching Jameka mind but I have been wrong before!

Edited October 19, 2016 by bolty58

[bolty58]

Charlie Appleby is making a name for himself down here. The locals are already lamenting the absence of Red Cadeaux this year and seem to be looking for something else adorably British to lock on to.

 

Appleby won the Bendigo Cup today with Francis of Assisi. His Geelong Cup winner, Qewy is already in the Melbourne Cup and the third placegetter Oceanographer, also trained by Appleby, is highly fancied to win Saturdays 2500m Group 3 Lexus Stakes on Saturday to also make it into the final Melbourne Cup field. Kerrin McEvoy will ride Oceanographer on Saturday then decide which one he will rode in the big one assuming Oceanographer wins.

 

I remain confident that Jameka will run an enormous race and my net 26.00 win bet is now looking top value with the favourite up until yesterday, Hartnell, being declared a non starter.

 

You probably know Scottish up there? he has been scratched from the Melbourne Cup too.

[stevieb]

Just had a dabble at 7.2 on betfair.

[bolty58]

Best of luck Stevie!

[enzo gambaro]

I like Big Orange.  Ran fifth last year from a stinky draw and the form of his Goodwood Cup win has been franked by the third, Sheikhzayedroad, who has since won the Doncaster Cup and the two-miler on Champions Day.  He's got some weight to lug round but he can carry it and he looks a big price to me at 18.0.  He could do without being drawn in the car park again, obviously. 

[bolty58]

Trainer of Big Orange very pleased with the big lads condition.

 

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/127996/A-more-mature-Big-Orange-in-2016-Melbourne-Cup

 

http://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/big-orange-spot-on-for-melbourne-cup-says-trainer-michael-bell/news-story/ac238e369bc389a4a145c12a245aeb79

 

Joint top weight though - history says not an easy task.

 

Happy to stick with Jameka though. Punters often ignore the obvious and her win in the Caulfield Cup was one of the biggest "get on me for the Melbourne Cup" statements I have seen since Fiorente.

[Traf]

I like Big Orange.  Ran fifth last year from a stinky draw and the form of his Goodwood Cup win has been franked by the third, Sheikhzayedroad, who has since won the Doncaster Cup and the two-miler on Champions Day.  He's got some weight to lug round but he can carry it and he looks a big price to me at 18.0.  He could do without being drawn in the car park again, obviously. 

 

The Sheikh was very impressive on Champions Day.

[L/H White]

when is the race

[Traf]

Tuesday 1st November

[bolty58]

Tuesday 1st November

 

 

12 noon Perth time. Have you changed your clocks yet up there? If so, it will be 4am in Bolton, if not, 5am.

[Sweep]

12 noon Perth time. Have you changed your clocks yet up there? If so, it will be 4am in Bolton, if not, 5am.

Clocks change this weekend

[bolty58]

Besides Almoonqith, the other one I like at decent odds is Almandin.

 

For no other reason than it is owned by Lloyd Williams who owns the Crown Casino in both Melbourne and Perth and has an amazing knack of knocking off these big races fairly frequently.

 

It won its lead up race by panels of fencing and you must always factor in Williams' owned horses into your calculations.

 

Almoonqith and Almandin will only be saver bets for me. The big result will (obviously) be Jameka.

[bolty58]

Mr. Charlie Appleby made them sit up and take notice again yesterday during Derby day at Flemington. Qualified his one remaining horse for the big one on Tuesday by winning the traditional lead up race (Lexus Stakes over 2500 metres) in spectacular fashion yesterday.

 

 

 

Bookies rolled it in from 26.00 to 7.00 second favourite immediately. Personally, have my doubts about it backing up in 3 days after a run like that but was on it yesterday.

 

The Irish lads with Wicklow Brave and Heartbreak City are full of confidence after shit barrier draws. 

 

I'll stick with Jameka thanks very much but Almandin is looking more and more the main danger to me.

[medwaywhite]

Going to do bondi beach and exospheric both e/w. Fingers crossed

[bolty58]

Good luck mate. Exospheric was a good run in the Caulfield Cup - a traditional guide to the Melbourne Cup winner (often comes from first 4 placings in Caulfield Cup).

[medwaywhite]

Hi bolty58. Is the Melbourne cup always on the 1st Nov or does it change ,what date will it be on next year ?

[enzo gambaro]

Hi bolty58. Is the Melbourne cup always on the 1st Nov or does it change ,what date will it be on next year ?

First Tuesday in November.

[medwaywhite]

So that will be the 7th we will have left Melbourne and in Sydney by then gutted

[Widnes Two Hats]

Jameka is currently 10.0 with Betway

 

Would be rude not to have a cheeky £20 on it

[Traf]

It's not a race I've got heavily involved in, but I've had a few pesos on Qewy at 25/1 e/w with SkyBet who are paying 6 places.

[bolty58]

It's not a race I've got heavily involved in, but I've had a few pesos on Qewy at 25/1 e/w with SkyBet who are paying 6 places.

 

 

A wise bet sir. Won the Geelong Cup with ease and definitely overs at 26.00 in my opinion.

[bolty58]

So that will be the 7th we will have left Melbourne and in Sydney by then gutted

 

 

A massive day everywhere in Australia mate - if you want the racecourse experience, get yourself out to Royal Randwick. Might be 50K on. Will be over 100K at Flemington.

 

As pointed out by Enzo - always the first Tuesday in November. There's even a famous poem by one 'Banjo Paterson' about itr:-

 

(1886)

Bring me a quart of colonial beer

And some doughy damper to make good cheer,

I must make a heavy dinner;

Heavily dine and heavily sup,

Of indigestible things fill up,

Next month they run the Melbourne Cup,

And I have to dream the winner.

Stoke it in, boys! the half-cooked ham,

The rich ragout and the charming cham.,

I've got to mix my liquor;

Give me a gander's gaunt hind leg,

Hard and tough as a wooden peg,

And I'll keep it down with a hard-boiled egg,

'Twill make me dream the quicker.

Now I am full of fearful feed,

Now I may dream a race indeed,

In my restless, troubled slumber;

While the night-mares race through my heated brain

And their devil-riders spur amain,

The tip for the Cup will reward my pain,

And I'll spot the winning number.

*****

Thousands and thousands and thousands more,

Like sands on the white Pacific shore,

The crowding people cluster;

For evermore it's the story old,

While races are bought and backers are sold,

Drawn by the greed of the gain of gold,

In their thousands still they muster.

And the bookies' cries grow fierce and hot,

“I'll lay the Cup! The double, if not!”

“Five monkeys, Little John, sir!”

“Here's fives bar one, I lay, I lay!”

And so they shout through the livelong day,

And stick to the game that is sure to pay,

While fools put money on, sir!

And now in my dream I seem to go

And bet with a “book” that I seem to know —

A Hebrew money-lender;

A million to five is the price I get —

Not bad! but before I book the bet

The horse's name I clean forget,

Its number and even gender.

Now for the start, and here they come,

And the hoof-strokes roar like a mighty drum

Beat by a hand unsteady;

They come like a rushing, roaring flood,

Hurrah for the speed of the Chester blood;

For Acme is making the pace so good

There are some of 'em done already.

But round the back she begins to tire,

And a mighty shout goes up “Crossfire!”

The magpie jacket's leading;

And Crossfire challenges, fierce and bold,

And the lead she'll have and the lead she'll hold,

But at length gives way to the black and gold,

Which away to the front is speeding.

Carry them on and keep it up —

A flying race is the Melbourne Cup,

You must race and stay to win it;

And old Commotion, Victoria's pride,

Now takes the lead with his raking stride,

And a mighty roar goes far and wide —

“There's only Commotion in it!”

But one draws out from the beaten ruck

And up on the rails by a piece of luck

He comes in a style that's clever;

“It's Trident! Trident! Hurrah for Hales!”

“Go at 'em now while their courage fails;”

“Trident! Trident! for New South Wales!”

“The blue and white for ever!”

Under the whip! with the ears flat back,

Under the whip! though the sinews crack,

No sign of the base white feather;

Stick to it now for your breeding's sake,

Stick to it now though your hearts should break,

While the yells and roars make the grand-stand shake,

They come down the straight together.

Trident slowly forges ahead,

The fierce whips cut and the spurs are red,

The pace is undiminished;

Now for the Panics that never fail!

But many a backer's face grows pale

As old Commotion swings his tail

And swerves — and the Cup is finished.

*****

And now in my dream it all comes back:

I bet my coin on the Sydney crack,

A million I've won, no question!

“Give me my money, you hooked-nosed hog!

Give me my money, bookmaking dog!”

But he disappeared in a kind of fog,

And I woke with “the indigestion”.

Edited November 1, 2016 by bolty58

[zurichwhite]

Hope you got your saver on Almandin Bolty?

[QFPants]

It's not a race I've got heavily involved in, but I've had a few pesos on Qewy at 25/1 e/w with SkyBet who are paying 6 places.

Nice work Traf!

[stevieb]

Booo Bolty OUT!