Today's Racing

[enzo gambaro]

Two at Carlisle today. Jennys Day off bottom weight in the 2.15, and Saroque in the 1.35 - should come on for the run last time and is down to a winning mark on ground that suits.

[enzo gambaro]

I fancy Ptit Zig to reverse recent form with the French runner on better ground in the Long Walk at Ascot (2.25). He'd have to improve a bit to beat Unowhatimeanharry but if first time blinkers have the desired effect he could go close at around 9/1.

 

Fourth Act has had two solid fourths this season and should be there or thereabouts off a light weight in the handicap chase at 3.00. He's fairly adaptable in terms of ground conditions and I think 3 miles is probably his optimum trip. He's 10/1.

 

JP McManus has chucked five runners at the 3.35 handicap hurdle but I'd take Geraghty to know what he's doing picking Modus, who's run very well in narrow defeats the last two times and looks a big price at 10/1.

 

Finally, I like Yala Enki at 6/1 off top weight in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock. He's unexposed and ran well first time out over hurdles at Haydock last month.

 

Oh, and there's a horse called Chesterfield in the last at Ascot - a double with Might Be Magic at Fairyhouse pays around 700/1!

Edited December 17, 2016 by enzo gambaro

[zurichwhite]

Good analysis Enzo, like Fourth Act myself e/w

Best of luck

[stevieb]

Yala enki won me a free bet on my profit maximiser, cheers Enzo

[enzo gambaro]

Fancy Yala Enki again today at Wetherby. Blaklion looked a bit more like in the Hennessy last time but Yala Enki looked a good horse at Haydock (when you could see him) and I don't think the 10lb rise will inconvenience him.

 

Sizing Tennessee is still unexposed and could run well at a decent price down in grade.

 

Frodon looked really good at Cheltenham the other week and is weighted to win the 2.05 at Kempton, though I think Minella Daddy is overpriced if he's recovered from a hard race last weekend.

 

The New One was impressive on his reappearance and can go in again in the Christmas Hurdle.

 

And Cue Card over Thistlecrack in the King George, which promises to be very interesting.

[stevieb]

Thistlecrack is boosted to 2/1 with Bet Victor for anyone interested.

[enzo gambaro]

Thistlecrack is boosted to 2/1 with Bet Victor for anyone interested.

That finished up looking a big price - fucking hell.

 

Taking the view that Double Shuffle's last race came a bit suit and giving him another chance in the 3.30.

 

Small each way punt on Houblon Des Obeaux in the Welsh National. He's gone well fresh before and the ground and trip shouldn't be an inconvenience if he's fit. Venetia'a horses could be in better form, though.

[stevieb]

That finished up looking a big price - fucking hell.

 

Taking the view that Double Shuffle's last race came a bit suit and giving him another chance in the 3.30.

 

Small each way punt on Houblon Des Obeaux in the Welsh National. He's gone well fresh before and the ground and trip shouldn't be an inconvenience if he's fit. Venetia'a horses could be in better form, though.

Limited to 20 quid but still a nice bit of profit.

 

Given Cue Card let down everyone on Birch's stag do it was worth a punt.

[medwaywhite]

That finished up looking a big price - fucking hell.

Taking the view that Double Shuffle's last race came a bit suit and giving him another chance in the 3.30.

Small each way punt on Houblon Des Obeaux in the Welsh National. He's gone well fresh before and the ground and trip shouldn't be an inconvenience if he's fit. Venetia'a horses could be in better form, though.

. Good shout 3rd 33/1

[stevieb]

Boom!

 

Missed your Welsh national one but managed to a few quid on Double Shuffle.

 

Cheers Enzo!

[enzo gambaro]

Just a couple today.

 

Valhalla has been running pretty well over hurdles this season without winning and is well worth a go on his first start over fences in the 12.40 at Newbury.

 

In the 1.15, Bob Tucker has come back down to within a pound of his last winning mark and looked a bit more like when chasing home Rocky Creek at Sandown last time,  The drop in trip will suit and a repeat of that effort would see him go close at around 12/1.

 

And I'm NEARLY interested in Lac Fontana coming back from a near two-year absence off a workable handicap mark and a decent first-time-out record. 

[enzo gambaro]

Think Bob Tucker hit every fence on the first circuit yesterday!

Clan Des Obeaux was impressive last time out but there might be some value in forgiving O O Seven's [NON RUNNER] run at Donny last time - he'd be nothing like 6/1 if you take that out and he might be worth another chance against the short-priced favourite in the 1.25 at Cheltenham.

Whataknight [NON RUNNER] is still fairly unexposed and makes plenty of appeal under top weight back over hurdles at 2.35, while Germany Calling can be frustrating but shouldn't be too far away in an open looking 1.40 at Musselburgh.

And I'm looking forward to Village Vic!

Edited January 1, 2017 by enzo gambaro

[enzo gambaro]

Backing Cogry in the 2.35 despite form figures of FBUF this season. Won't mind the ground and has come down the weights. Not one for the mortgage, obviously!

[enzo gambaro]

I like Morney Wing in the Sussex National at Plumpton this afternoon.  It's going to be a bit of a slog but he stays well and has plenty of form on soft ground.  He's got fair form in this kind of race and makes more appeal at around 12/1 than the favourite, who has gone up 9lb for his last win (second and third have beaten a combined 67 lengths in their subsequent outings).

[stevieb]

I like Morney Wing in the Sussex National at Plumpton this afternoon.  It's going to be a bit of a slog but he stays well and has plenty of form on soft ground.  He's got fair form in this kind of race and makes more appeal at around 12/1 than the favourite, who has gone up 9lb for his last win (second and third have beaten a combined 67 lengths in their subsequent outings).

 

Had a few quid e/w. 

 

Fingers crossed!

[medwaywhite]

I like Morney Wing in the Sussex National at Plumpton this afternoon.  It's going to be a bit of a slog but he stays well and has plenty of form on soft ground.  He's got fair form in this kind of race and makes more appeal at around 12/1 than the favourite, who has gone up 9lb for his last win (second and third have beaten a combined 67 lengths in their subsequent outings).

. Great tipping well done

[stevieb]

BOOM!

 

Cheers Enzo, I owe you a few pints.

[zurichwhite]

1.35 Newcastle- Touch of Paradise. Interesting newcomer trading at 3/1

[enzo gambaro]

If you put a line through his last run at Chepstow when the ground was a bit quick and the race was a good bit deeper, then you could give Fergal Mael Duin a solid shout in the 2.05 at Wincanton.  The drop back in trip shouldn't be a big issue and if he gets an easy lead his stamina in the soft ground could be key.  He's around a 9/1 chance.

 

If Fergal Mael Duin runs well then you'd have to give Aerial a chance in the 3.00 at Sandown. However, I'm going to have a go at Cloudy Too at around 10/1 - the ground holds no fears and Sue Smith's horses are running pretty well, and I fancy him to reverse form with Gas Line Boy over the longer trip now he's 11lb better off at the weights.

 

Finally, John Reel makes plenty of appeal at 6/1 in the 3.35.  He hasn't run over hurdles for three years (!) but has improved around 20lb on the flat in the meantime.  Today's mark is 2lbs lower than his last run over obstacles, so he could finish up looking a well handicapped horse - if he jumps!

[stevieb]

If you put a line through his last run at Chepstow when the ground was a bit quick and the race was a good bit deeper, then you could give Fergal Mael Duin a solid shout in the 2.05 at Wincanton.  The drop back in trip shouldn't be a big issue and if he gets an easy lead his stamina in the soft ground could be key.  He's around a 9/1 chance.

 

If Fergal Mael Duin runs well then you'd have to give Aerial a chance in the 3.00 at Sandown. However, I'm going to have a go at Cloudy Too at around 10/1 - the ground holds no fears and Sue Smith's horses are running pretty well, and I fancy him to reverse form with Gas Line Boy over the longer trip now he's 11lb better off at the weights.

 

Finally, John Reel makes plenty of appeal at 6/1 in the 3.35.  He hasn't run over hurdles for three years (!) but has improved around 20lb on the flat in the meantime.  Today's mark is 2lbs lower than his last run over obstacles, so he could finish up looking a well handicapped horse - if he jumps!

 

Couple of quid on em. Fingers crossed!

[enzo gambaro]

Couple of quid on em. Fingers crossed!

Rubbish!

 

I reckon the winner of that Wincanton race had just waited in the fog at the top of the home straight for a circuit before joining in as the rest of the field came in to view second time round.

[stevieb]

Rubbish!

 

I reckon the winner of that Wincanton race had just waited in the fog at the top of the home straight for a circuit before joining in as the rest of the field came in to view second time round.

I thought that too, or he'd skipped round a few fences.

[enzo gambaro]

Simon Dow sends Mr Scaramanga all the way from Epsom to Newcastle for a conditional race at 3.30.  He's up against some unexposed horses but he's the highest rated in a four-runner field and showed some solid form in some good races as a 2yo last season.  He could have gone for a similar (albeit more difficult) event at Kempton instead, so you'd have thought hopes of recouping the petrol money would be high.  He's 3/1 third favourite of four.

 

In the 2.10 at Taunton, I quite like the chances of Rebecca Curtis' Red Devil Lads (I know), who reverts to chasing after a couple of good runs over hurdles.  He was highly tried over fences last season when Curtis was having a horrible time of it, but, with the yard back in form, his current mark of 134 could prove a handy one.  Three of his four career wins have been over the bigger obstacles, too, though his form does suggest he'd prefer softer ground that he's likely to get today. Still, worth a small punt at 12/1, I reckon.   

[enzo gambaro]

Cogry has gone up six pounds for his win at Cheltenham on New Year's Day but the first two were ten lengths clear of the third that day and he's won on both chase and hurdles courses around Warwick before.  The ground will suit and he's still quite lightly raced over hurdles.  Worth a go at around 8/1.  I've had a saver on Fourth Act in the same race - he's run well in a couple of good chases this season and reverts to hurdling off a mark nine pounds lower, with an apprentice taking a further ten pounds off his back.  He's knocking about at around 14/1.

 

Our Kaempfer unseated last time out but had previously showed a good level of form, most recently behind Clan des Obeaux at Newbury.  There's a fair chance he'll make the running here and if he repeats that Newbury effort he might take some pegging back round Kempton.  I think he's overpriced at 8/1.

 

You could almost stick a pin in the 3.35 at Warwick, and it's pretty tempting to have another go on Houblon des Obeaux, who has actually been dropped a pound by the handicapper after a good effort to finish third behind Native River on his reappearance in the Welsh National last time out.  He's only around a 10/1 chance here, though, so I'm going with his stable mate, Rigadin de Beauchene, at the other end of the weights.  He's a 12 year old these days but he ran well for a long way first time out at Haydock in November and he was going well in this last season before a loose horse put paid to his chances.  He makes plenty of appeal carrying 10-3 at around 18/1.

[stevieb]

Nice tip for our kaempfer. Unfortunately I had laid it as one of my PM choices. Hope a few got on it earlier at 8/1