Today's Racing

[enzo gambaro]

You'd struggle to find too many reasons why Politologue won't win the 1.30 Novice Chase at Haydock but you'd not be getting much of a price. I think you could get a decent run for your money backing Colin Tizzard's Solatentif at a much bigger price. He ran a good race on his first start over fences - not too far behind a decent horse in Baron Alco - with the third from that race coming out to win at Ayr in the week. The ground should suit and the yard is going well, and any improvement from that first run over fences should see him outrun odds of 14/1.

 

I like Bristol de Mai in the Peter Marsh, too. He's closely matched with Definitly Red and Otago Trail but he jumps well and he's won in testing ground round Haydock before. He's around a 5/1 chance. Interesting that Sue Smith opts to run Vintage Clouds in this (from 6lb out of the handicap) rather than in the earlier novice chase. Her horses are running well, so she's either seen some improvement at home, or she's ruled out any chance of turning round the form with Politologue, who beat them 10 lengths off levels here in November. Vintage Clouds is only a 10/1 chance today but I just can't see it.

[stevieb]

Bristol de mai with a narrow victory in the 15.15    just the 22 lengths.

[enzo gambaro]

I do hope Brough Scott's unwelcome reappearance on ITV today was a one-off.

[enzo gambaro]

Some decent racing at Leopardstown today.  Willie Mullins runs four in the big handicap hurdle at 3.10, with Ruby opting to ride Allblak Des Places. He's lightly raced but has already showed a good level of form over track and trip last February, when he finished second behind Footpad, with Let's Dance and Ivanovich Gorbatov third and fourth.  Those three filled three of the first four places in the Triumph Hurdle five weeks later, while the fifth, Jer's Girl, finished her season winning the Champion Novice at Punchestown.  Heartbreak City was progressive last season and looks likely to go off favourite, but he's won a Ebor and been to Flemington and back for the Melbourne Cup since then, and I'm not in a rush to take 5/2 about his chances.  Allblak Des Places hadn't been seen since until a disappointing reappearance on Boxing Day, but he's entitled to come on plenty for that and a return to something like last season's form would see him go close. At 16/1, I reckon he's worth a bit each way.

 

Before that, there's a decent handicap chase at 2.40.  Clarcam's presence at the top of the weights has really stretched out the handicap and I like Jim Culloty's Lake Takapuna off 9st 11lb.  He's shown some good form in novice chases and won on his handicap debut here last time.  The third that day, Ball d'Arc, would almost certainly have beaten him but for being badly hampered at the last, but he made amends by winning well at Fairyhouse last week, so the form looks strong.  Lake Takapuna tends to race prominently and is likely to be taken on for the lead, but he's getting plenty of weight and might still take some stopping at 9/1. 

[zurichwhite]

Just checked the result of the 3.10, was it the case that 4 lengths separated the first ten? In a 2m hurdle

[enzo gambaro]

Just checked the result of the 3.10, was it the case that 4 lengths separated the first ten? In a 2m hurdle

Aye. Either the handicapper is ace or the grade isn't up to much! Hidden Cyclone ran a blinder off top weight and it's hard to think he's still improving at 12yo. The Martin runners all ran well, with Tudor City finishing with a rattle and Heartbreak City looking dangerous until running out of steam between the last two flights. Allblak Des Places ran like a 14/1 chance!

 

Lake Takapuna ran a good race and looked the likely winner jumping three out. He was up in trip and didn't get home, but he jumped and travelled well before his stamina gave out and he's definitely one to watch back in distance.

[enzo gambaro]

Politologue won a couple of novice chases earlier in the season before coming up against a good un in Waiting Patiently at Haydock last time. The pair were 20 lengths clear of the third that day and I fancy Politologue to regain the winning thread in the 4.15 at Kempton. Pain au Chocolate looks the main danger but has plenty to find at the weights in what, on the face of it, looks very much a two-horse race.

[QFPants]

Whoosh

Edited February 10, 2017 by QFPants

[enzo gambaro]

Two for me at decent prices in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury today.

 

Boite is still pretty unexposed over hurdles but has two wins and four placed efforts from his seven starts to date. He won well at Wetherby in December (though the form of that race couldn't be much weaker) before failing to get home when stepped up in trip at Newbury over Christmas. He should be a lot more competitive back over two miles today, the ground won't be a bother and he's plenty of experience in big fields on the flat. The likely decent gallop will suit and if the first time cheekpieces sharpen him up a bit he could run a big race at 33/1.

 

The other one worth a look in the race is Beltor. He was a decent novice a couple of seasons back, finishing sixth in the Triumph Hurdle before struggling a bit last season. He won on the flat at Kempton in early December and would have followed up over hurdles at Christmas if he hadn't made a bollocks of the final flight. He's another who'll be suited by a good gallop and he could be a big danger now he's come down the handicap. Worth a punt at 18/1.

[stevieb]

On beltor e/w with sky bet, extra place race.

[enzo gambaro]

I fucking love Cue Card but he might be worth taking on today. He's not raced over shorter than 3 miles in ten starts and he's not getting quicker as he gets older. Taquin du Seuil is only a year younger but does his best work at middle distances, and that might be enough to swing it in his favour. Not one for the mortgage, but I'd rather take the 7/1 about Taquin de Seuil than the 4/9 about Cue Card. That said, if Cue Card goes well he might be the value in a tight Gold Cup market - can't see past Native River for that at the minute.

 

Like Vicente each way at around 14/1 in the Grand National Trial at Haydock, and struggle to see past Go Conquer in the 2.25 at Ascot (7/2).

[Traf]

I fucking love Cue Card 

 

Oh, yes.

[enzo gambaro]

Oh, yes.

That was the only bit of the paragraph that made any sense in hindsight.

[Traf]

That was the only bit of the paragraph that made any sense in hindsight.

 

Anyone prepared to post selections in public knows they'll make an arse of themselves more often than not, mate.

 

Trust me, I do it for a living and keeping hold of subscribers during lean spells is tricky.

Thankfully, 2017 has been tremendous so far...

 

(it'll all turn to shit now, just watch!)

[enzo gambaro]

Elgin isn't a massive price for the 3.00 novice hurdle at Kempton today but I think he's a decent horse who will be shown to better effect on better ground. He gets that today and can go well at 7/2. I've taken 50/1 about him in the Supreme Novices (still available) and a good run could see him shorten up markedly.

 

Also a couple of favourites with big chances at decent prices - Double Shuffle (11/2) won well round Kempton last time and can follow up in the Betbright at 3.35 on ground that will suit. In the Eider up at Newcastle, Shotgun Paddy makes plenty of appeal at 15/2 for a race that's quite tightly framed at the top end of the weights, with not much making any appeal down the bottom. Mysteree looks the main danger.

Edited February 25, 2017 by enzo gambaro

[enzo gambaro]

Dresden looks a decent chance for Richard Johnson in the 3.15 at Newbury. He jumps well, is still fairly unexposed at the trip and comes into the race in decent form after getting beat a neck off top weight at Warwick last time. He's on a winning mark and looks a big price at 11/1.

[enzo gambaro]

Three fancies today in one of my favourite races - the annual Cheltenham recovery mission in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter.

 

Venetia Williams' horses are running well and she has a decent record in soft ground staying chases, so it's not difficult to see her top weight, Houblon Des Obeaux, running well here. His last four runs on soft ground have seen a win in the Denman Chase, a 3rd of 20 behind Native River in the Welsh National and a 4th of 20 over 3m 5f at Warwick in January. He's been dropped 8lb since that Warwick run so he could go close at 20/1.

 

All that said, jockey bookings suggest Emperor's Choice is the pick of Venetia's two runners. He goes well on soft ground too but he hasn't won since November 2015 and has been pulled up or tailed off in five of his six subsequent starts. He was a bit more like in the Eider last time but he's a fair bit to find with likely favourite Mysteree on that run and he's still only three pounds lower than his last winning mark. If you back him, you're placing a lot of faith in Liam Treadwell knowing what he's doing!

 

The other one I quite like at a big price is Blakemount. He's another soft ground horse from an in-form yard that does well with stayers. This is his first run over an extreme distance so you're taking a bit on trust, but Sue Smith knows what she's doing and the horse is still fairly unexposed at a trip having won on his first attempt beyond three miles at Carlisle in February. You can have him at 33/1.

[Traf]

HDO ran really well, I'd a couple of points E/W at 22/1, based on weight and his ability to stay all day

[stevieb]

https://twitter.com/Racing_UK/status/845322362866274306

 

TAXI!

[enzo gambaro]

Any of you Clowns got a view on Dear Sire in the 3.40 at Sedgefield?

 

His run behind Dubai Angel a couple of starts back reads well enough.

Edited March 29, 2017 by enzo gambaro

[Horwich]

I backed Crackdeloust yesterday at 11/4 to win that race

[Latham8WFC]

JustforJames at 14/1 ew

 

Finished 3rd behind Dubai Angel last time out and by a distance but has a 7lbs jockey claimer this time,

 

Has never finished outside the top 3 at Sedgefield in 4 starts.

 

Perhaps would prefer the going to be a little softer.

 

Enzo, Prefer Dear Sire to Crackdeloust, mainly due to the going conditions.

Edited March 29, 2017 by Latham8WFC

[L/H White]

JustforJames at 14/1 ew

 

Finished 3rd behind Dubai Angel last time out and by a distance but has a 7lbs jockey claimer this time,

 

Has never finished outside the top 3 at Sedgefield in 4 starts.

 

Perhaps would prefer the going to be a little softer.

 

Enzo, Prefer Dear Sire to Crackdeloust, mainly due to the going conditions.

Non runner

[clown]

Any of you Clowns got a view on Dear Sire in the 3.40 at Sedgefield?

 

His run behind Dubai Angel a couple of starts back reads well enough.

Sorry, missed this. Was A bit hot for DS, didn't back it. An 8th runner would have persuaded me. Went with hope not expectation.

[enzo gambaro]

Lord of the Rock looked a good horse when he won last season's Spring Mile before failing to live up to that promise in two subsequent starts. There were possible excuses, though (fast ground at York, crappy all weather at Newcastle), and if Michael Dods has him back to last year's form he could make a bold bid from the front at 28/1. I'll kick myself hard if Gabrial's Kaka wins.

 

The Lincoln looks typically wide open and I reckon it's worth taking a chance of Dolphin Vista at 14/1. He was progressive last season, winning a handicap off 95 at Beverley at end of August having started the season of a mark of 71. He's been gelded in the summer, Richard Fahey's horses are going well, and Paul Hanagan is a positive jockey booking. I've also backed Top Notch Tonto, just in case.