Politics

[Winchester White]

I have a sneaking suspicion that May might getbher deal through 3rd time lucky and we have a slight delay just to get the legislation through.

If she doesn't then surely the only alternative is a very long extension which the EU will enforce either another referendum and/or a general election?

[Salford Trotter]

1 minute ago, Winchester White said:

I have a sneaking suspicion that May might getbher deal through 3rd time lucky and we have a slight delay just to get the legislation through.

If she doesn't then surely the only alternative is a very long extension which the EU will enforce either another referendum and/or a general election?

She will get her deal through.... Just

[bwfcfan5]

Just now, Winchester White said:

I have a sneaking suspicion that May might getbher deal through 3rd time lucky and we have a slight delay just to get the legislation through.

If she doesn't then surely the only alternative is a very long extension which the EU will enforce either another referendum and/or a general election?

Its so precarious. If the ERG and DUP vote for a deal they've already rejected twice and publicly completely slammed some saying its a worse deal than remain - how do they justify that to their supporters - most of which are urging them to vote against it?

I think some will buckle - its a question of whether enough do. 

They all SHOULD, but trying to predict what they will do is hard. Some think it will sneak through others think it has absolutely no chance. 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

2 minutes ago, Salford Trotter said:

The contrary position is that leaving without a deal is made law, unlikely but possible. I just can't see parliament allowing us to leave without a deal or have they spent the last 2 or 3 days voting about nothing? 

That's in essence, the game now. Erg watching intently.

Is there enough time to change the law- by normal methods no, but nothing can be ruled out now.

Presumably that's why the government have gone for this short extension, in the hope they will take something rather than nothing.

Not sure they will though.

[bwfcfan5]

Just now, Tonge moor green jacket said:

That's in essence, the game now. Erg watching intently.

Is there enough time to change the law- by normal methods no, but nothing can be ruled out now.

Presumably that's why the government have gone for this short extension, in the hope they will take something rather than nothing.

Not sure they will though.

The extension period is not defined. IF the deal passes its 30th June.

IF the deal doesn't pass its a request for a "long extension" that may or may not be granted. The government are simply trying to prevent remain MPs think that there is an automatic extension should they keep voting the deal down. Its found a way to give into parliament but still run down the clock.

Ultimately some argue that the only way to get this through would be for May to answer what she does if nothing agreed and the EU refuse an extension. Would she go no deal? Thus forcing the remainers to seriously consider her deal to avoid that. Would she go revocation? Forcing the Brexiteers to realise this is their only chance. Because she still tries to threaten both sides with outcomes they don't want, both sides believe she is bluffing.....

[Mounts Kipper]

If the ERG and the DUP think they can push a no deal and WTO over the line I dont think they will back Mays deal. If that avenue is closed down (and it is going that way) then they will have to back it.   

Edited March 15, 2019 by Mounts Kipper

[Salford Trotter]

14 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

That's in essence, the game now. Erg watching intently.

Is there enough time to change the law- by normal methods no, but nothing can be ruled out now.

Presumably that's why the government have gone for this short extension, in the hope they will take something rather than nothing.

Not sure they will though.

Bercow said as much to MPs in response to JRM. Words to the effect of "if you want No Deal off the table then it has to be in the statute book". 

If there's a will there's a way

[Tonge moor green jacket]

Just now, Mounts Kipper said:

If the ERG and the DUP think they can push a no deal and WTO over the line I dont think they will back Mays deal.   

Certainly won't. Depends on how they see machinations in the house. That said, still not convinced they would go for it (in their entirety) and may "go down with the ship".

[Tonge moor green jacket]

1 minute ago, Salford Trotter said:

Bercow said as much to MPs in response to JRM. Words to the effect of "if you want No Deal off the table then it has to be in the statute book". 

If there's a will there's a way

Yep. A quite clear request for clarification and and an answer of "MPs, its over to you". Said in a Lloyd Grossman voice.

[Salford Trotter]

1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Yep. A quite clear request for clarification and and an answer of "MPs, its over to you". Said in a Lloyd Grossman voice.

🙂

[Tonge moor green jacket]

30 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

The extension period is not defined. IF the deal passes its 30th June.

IF the deal doesn't pass its a request for a "long extension" that may or may not be granted. The government are simply trying to prevent remain MPs think that there is an automatic extension should they keep voting the deal down. Its found a way to give into parliament but still run down the clock.

Ultimately some argue that the only way to get this through would be for May to answer what she does if nothing agreed and the EU refuse an extension. Would she go no deal? Thus forcing the remainers to seriously consider her deal to avoid that. Would she go revocation? Forcing the Brexiteers to realise this is their only chance. Because she still tries to threaten both sides with outcomes they don't want, both sides believe she is bluffing.....

I've just read the motion as laid down yesterday.

To my mind, it doesn't say categorically that if a deal is rejected by parliament, then an extension will be sought.

It only explains that an extension would potentially be more difficult and that elections would also need to be held.

Not very clear, perhaps deliberately so.

[bwfcfan5]

14 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I've just read the motion as laid down yesterday.

To my mind, it doesn't say categorically that if a deal is rejected by parliament, then an extension will be sought.

It only explains that an extension would potentially be more difficult and that elections would also need to be held.

Not very clear, perhaps deliberately so.

Yep that is a good point. I think suggestion is we'll ask but probably she hopes they will say no and then she can put the deal back. Given she won't allow indicative votes to determine how parliament wants to proceed till April I suspect that is the strategy. Problem is some are suggesting the EU are working their way up to offer a long delay in that scenario.....

[Sweep]

1 hour ago, Winchester White said:

I have a sneaking suspicion that May might get her deal through 3rd time lucky and we have a slight delay just to get the legislation through.

If she doesn't then surely the only alternative is a very long extension which the EU will enforce either another referendum and/or a general election?

She might, which would also be ridiculous, as that deal hasn't changed, and it's shit

 

if she gets it through, it's pretty much by dint of blackmail.......vote for this, or we're going over the edge chaps

[Tonge moor green jacket]

Right; in the interests of reducing dizziness from going round in circles, let's have a brief 'vote'.

Irrespective of feelings about the deal and it's effectiveness, given the circumstances, if you were an MP would you now vote it through?

[Sweep]

5 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Right; in the interests of reducing dizziness from going round in circles, let's have a brief 'vote'.

Irrespective of feelings about the deal and it's effectiveness, given the circumstances, if you were an MP would you now vote it through?

No, as I think the deal is worse than going WTO  - if we vote on May's deal, we're still overly tied to the EU, and aren't in a position to go and do whatever trade deals we want, with whoever we want - which was supposed to be the whole point of leaving. I'd rather stay as we are than take the current deal on offer.

[bwfcfan5]

10 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Right; in the interests of reducing dizziness from going round in circles, let's have a brief 'vote'.

Irrespective of feelings about the deal and it's effectiveness, given the circumstances, if you were an MP would you now vote it through?

Yes. I'd probably do so IF May promised she would resign in order to avoid her being involved in the next stage of negotiations. I wouldn't want to reward her for the fact she's negotiated a bad deal and run the clock down to try and force it through rather than listen to months and months of people showing her there are other options. But ultimately no its get a deal across the line - and this is the only one - or face chaos of one form or another. 

[Salford Trotter]

20 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Right; in the interests of reducing dizziness from going round in circles, let's have a brief 'vote'.

Irrespective of feelings about the deal and it's effectiveness, given the circumstances, if you were an MP would you now vote it through?

It's not Brexit for sure but if the only other option is WTO I believe I would have to. If I felt an extension would lead to a revoking of A50 then that would be my preferred route but that won't happen 

[Salford Trotter]

16 minutes ago, Sweep said:

No, as I think the deal is worse than going WTO  - if we vote on May's deal, we're still overly tied to the EU, and aren't in a position to go and do whatever trade deals we want, with whoever we want - which was supposed to be the whole point of leaving. I'd rather stay as we are than take the current deal on offer.

correct but staying in the EU currently isn't a realistic option 

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Right; in the interests of reducing dizziness from going round in circles, let's have a brief 'vote'.

Irrespective of feelings about the deal and it's effectiveness, given the circumstances, if you were an MP would you now vote it through?

No deal

Better than her bad deal

[Tonge moor green jacket]

1 minute ago, boltondiver said:

No deal

Better than her bad deal

I'm not sure the hoc won't come up with some legal process to block no deal. Cuntish maybe, but who knows.

If they do block it, would you stay in or take the deal.

[bwfcfan5]

3 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

No deal

Better than her bad deal

What if she said to you on Tuesday "vote for this deal or I will revoke Article 50"?

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I'm not sure the hoc won't come up with some legal process to block no deal. Cuntish maybe, but who knows.

If they do block it, would you stay in or take the deal.

Deal

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

What if she said to you on Tuesday "vote for this deal or I will revoke Article 50"?

I don’t think that can happen (see my post from earlier)

but, if blackmailed then deal, probably.

Thinking of the ERG, and if I were an MP you’d probably find me in that grouping, then they would see through it as empty blackmail and call her bluff.

Risky strategy, which I hope will work.

[bwfcfan5]

4 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

I don’t think that can happen (see my post from earlier)

but, if blackmailed then deal, probably.

Thinking of the ERG, and if I were an MP you’d probably find me in that grouping, then they would see through it as empty blackmail and call her bluff.

Risky strategy, which I hope will work.

The British government can unilaterally revoke A50.

See this as a scenario - May's deal goes down. The EU reject an extension. Parliament has already voted against no deal and government policy is also that we should not leave without a deal on 29th March (that was their motion).

So May concludes that only option is revocation of A50. She can do that without parliamentary approval - according to their own legal advice!

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

The British government can unilaterally revoke A50.

See this as a scenario - May's deal goes down. The EU reject an extension. Parliament has already voted against no deal and government policy is also that we should not leave without a deal on 29th March (that was their motion).

So May concludes that only option is revocation of A50. She can do that without parliamentary approval - according to their own legal advice!

The law as it stands says we leave 2 weeks today, with or without a deal.

Notwithstanding any discussions about labyrinthine process, I was asked what I would vote if I were an MP and I answered.