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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

Politics


miamiwhite

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1 hour ago, darwen_white said:

I'm a rational person, and have always wanted to leave without a deal. 

To talk about the EU getting the best deal and the UK getting the best deal and no one winning, to me, is irrational 

You are entitled to your opinion. But 99% of people campaigning to Leave were adamant that to do so would be a disaster.  

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2 minutes ago, Ani said:

You are entitled to your opinion. But 99% of people campaigning to Leave were adamant that to do so would be a disaster.  

99%?

Doubt it.

 

It wouldn't be a disaster

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17 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

99%?

Doubt it.

 

It wouldn't be a disaster

Economists have a no deal BREXIT taking about 3% off our GDP, similar to the Covid projection (net of the likely bounce in 2021), calling it a disaster or not is semantics I suppose but it isn’t good for the country that’s for sure 

However, if we can gain incremental trade deals with other countries to off set the decline with the EU then it’s a different story, likely to take years kind! 

Cutting the wheat from the chaff your looking at either China or the US, anything else is just meaningless in comparison to our relationship with Europe. Striking a deal with China is difficult at the best of times, throw in Hong Kong and it’s even further away. The US trade deal will be the key that makes or breaks BREXIT. But then again, it’s likely you will see an EU:US deal now Biden is in so even if we do get a trade deal with the Yanks, will it end up being truly incremental? 

Edited by birch-chorley
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26 minutes ago, Winchester White said:

You got a reputable economist who agrees with you? Please don't suggest Toby Young 😉

There are plenty

Here's some insight from the WTO.

Is "catasrophe" similar to "disaster"?

I think I've even quoted him before.

Roberto Azevedo, director-general of the WTO, said while WTO terms were “not a catastrophe”, they “will impose a number of adjustments and those can be painful, particularly for some sectors”.

Edited by boltondiver
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1 minute ago, boltondiver said:

There are plenty

Here's some insight from the WTO.

Is "catasrophe" similar to "disaster"?

I think I've een quoted him before.

Roberto Azevedo, director-general of the WTO, said while WTO terms were “not a catastrophe”, they “will impose a number of adjustments and those can be painful, particularly for some sectors”.

😁

I like your style.

So maybe not a catastrophe but painful, or in other words, fucking shit. Add in our brilliant Covid situation and it is just the guano frosting we need on an already well matured faeces fancy. Lovely.

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9 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Anyone?

There isn’t one yet.

Can you tell me if my delivery will turn up on the 4th Jan or am I likely to be invoicing 50% less than I did last January?

because if I don’t get an assurance by next week that the deliveries will land, I have to cancel a lot of production.

100 or so jobs depend on it, so I’m classing it is “fairly important “

Edited by Spider
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Just now, boltondiver said:

There isn't one as yet. Except the always-available WTO.

Thanks mate. Been busy today and just caught up on the thread and assumed a deal had been done and I had missed it. 
 

So what we are saying is the hysteria on here  is just the usual then I guess?

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Just now, Spider said:

Am I the only one bringing actual specific and factual evidence to this discussion about the consequences of a business being left in the dark?

Anyone else fancy tipping an actual situation into this?

Listen to David Davies. Like him or not, he's the only one who has been on the money since the out vote.

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Just now, Spider said:

There isn’t one yet.

Can you tell me if my delivery will turn up on the 4th Jan or am I likely to be invoicing 50% less than I did last January?

because if I don’t get an assurance by next week that the deliveries will land, I have to cancel a lot of production.

100 or so jobs depend on it, so I’m classing it is “fairly important “

Why are you asking me that? How would I know? I won’t be drawn to make daft predictions either when a number of variables are involved. 
 

I feel your pain. Genuinely. Ive got my second biggest client hanging back on a 25m order for next year. Because we have imposed a tariff that if we go wto they are liable for. They’ve just put the plans on hold as they won’t be liable for it. So it sucks. It really does spider. It’s not good enough that we are sat here without a final conclusion to this. I hope and believe one is round the corner. 
 

ask the usual suspects and you will get the answer.  But listen to them and I would get the bunker ready in the woods stockpiled with food and medicine. 
 

you draw your own opinion. You’re a bright enough chap 

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Just now, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Listen to David Davies. Like him or not, he's the only one who has been on the money since the out vote.

What does he say about my delivery on the 4th?

Is it happening?

Only, our people in the Czech Republic can’t say.

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Just now, Spider said:

What does he say about my delivery on the 4th?

Is it happening?

Only, our people in the Czech Republic can’t say.

Your delivery will be unaffected. Whether you choose to believe it, well that's up to you.

As he explained years ago, this is precisely why the eu behave as they do. However as he also explained the German car market is and has been in Merkel's ear for some time and the deal is likely to be done in Berlin and other major capitals, not in eu headquarters in Brussels.

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2 minutes ago, Winchester White said:

The official vote leave group said, and I quote:

"Not only can Britain leave the EU & have access to the single market, we'd actually get a better deal #VoteLeave"

Neither are now on the table, wonderful for those that depend on trade with our EU partners 

Especially those hundreds on thousands that lost their jobs in the weeks immediately after the vote.

Politicians in talking bullshit, bullshit, bullshit shocker.

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1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Especially those hundreds on thousands that lost their jobs in the weeks immediately after the vote.

Politicians in talking bullshit, bullshit, bullshit shocker.

Yep. The problem is, one is now reality.

It is a bit like being in opposition and the Government. Only one has to deliver what they promised. 

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  1.  
  2. Two thirds of British jobs in manufacturing are dependent on demand from Europe’

    Alan Johnson, a Remainer and the former shadow chancellor, claimed two thirds of manufacturing jobs were dependent on Europe after looking at outdated analysis that had been conducted by the Centre of Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

    The figure used by Mr Johnson compared the total number of manufacturing jobs, 2.55 million, with the 1.7 million jobs the CEBR had said were dependent on EU trade. 

    However, the two figures were not comparable and more recent analysis shows that the figure is more likely to be closer to 15 per cent.

  3.  

Shall we do this all night back and forth? As TMGJ says politicians in lying shocker. It’s fucking tedious this really fucking tedious. 

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