Politics

[miamiwhite]

1 hour ago, Not in Crawley said:

The UK reliance on London is not healthy,after 20 years of boom in this city, things are changing and a healthier country doesn't have thus huge imbalance. More power and control to regions and away from London.

Totally agree on that.

And this what Labour now need to be pushing for.

[Escobarp]

16 hours ago, Winchester White said:

Some Scots love to pap on about oil, but they are missing the environmental point, gas and oil requirements are going to die away year on year from their/our European buyers.

We are all subsidised to some degree by the huge wealth of London to be frank, and news like this is worrying...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-11/new-york-wins-from-brexit-s-3-3-trillion-hit-to-u-k-swap-trade

Doesn’t affect me so doesn’t bother me. I’m busier than ever so it’s all good in my wee bubble. If a few overpaid bankers in London lose out so be it. 
 

and is this not a regurgitation of previous news with different numbers attached. We all know the financial services sector was going to be hit and was hit. But let’s trot it out again next month. Same time same place ? It’s a date 

And agree on the O&G from environmental point of view. But when questioned on this very point the SNP don’t like it and won’t talk about it. Most bats it’s their stick answer to how independence would work. Oil and gas. That’s it. That’s the whole story and whole dream they’ve all got. And try telling them any different. 

Edited May 12, 2021 by Escobarp

[Spider]

10 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Doesn’t affect me so doesn’t bother me. I’m busier than ever so it’s all good in my wee bubble. If a few overpaid bankers in London lose out so be it. 
 

and is this not a regurgitation of previous news with different numbers attached. We all know the financial services sector was going to be hit and was hit. But let’s trot it out again next month. Same time same place ? It’s a date 

And agree on the O&G from environmental point of view. But when questioned on this very point the SNP don’t like it and won’t talk about it. Most bats it’s their stick answer to how independence would work. Oil and gas. That’s it. That’s the whole story and whole dream they’ve all got. And try telling them any different. 

So a loss of trillions is only important for the day that news is announced?

You don’t think the impact will have consequences that may go beyond a single day?

I might ring my mortgage lender and say yeah, I borrowed that money but it was AGES ago, let’s just put it all behind us and move on. Boring now.

I think a trillion pound loss of business may just filter its way beyond the walls of the trading floors of London Town.

[Escobarp]

Just now, Spider said:

So a loss of trillions is only important for the day that news is announced?

You don’t think the impact will have consequences that may go beyond a single day?

I might ring my mortgage lender and say yeah, I borrowed that money but it was AGES ago, let’s just put it all behind us and move on. Boring now.

I think a trillion pound loss of business may just filter its way beyond the walls of the trading floors of London Town.

Like I’ve said. When it affects me personally I will give a shit. You live your life worrying about what you want and I will do the same how does that sound 

[Guest]

39 minutes ago, Spider said:

So a loss of trillions is only important for the day that news is announced?

You don’t think the impact will have consequences that may go beyond a single day?

I might ring my mortgage lender and say yeah, I borrowed that money but it was AGES ago, let’s just put it all behind us and move on. Boring now.

I think a trillion pound loss of business may just filter its way beyond the walls of the trading floors of London Town.

Need to look deeper

Not react to today’s (BBC) headlines!

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by boltondiver

[Spider]

2 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Need to look deeper

Not react to today’s (BBC) headlines!

 

I was reading the Bloomberg data

[kent_white]

2 hours ago, Not in Crawley said:

The UK reliance on London is not healthy,after 20 years of boom in this city, things are changing and a healthier country doesn't have thus huge imbalance. More power and control to regions and away from London.

Not by a race to the bottom though!

[kent_white]

4 minutes ago, Spider said:

I was reading the Bloomberg data

Fucking lefty rag anyway! 

And what has the financial services sector ever done for us? 

Take off your blinkers man. We'll make that back in not having to subsidise Scotland when the UK inevitably breaks up. 

It's win/win! 

Edited May 12, 2021 by kent_white

[Not in Crawley]

42 minutes ago, kent_white said:

Not by a race to the bottom though!

Oh no, of course not - I just think a re-prioritisation back onto local communities and away from westminster would reinvigorate politics again and there is such a dangerous imbalance between London and the South East and the rest of the country.

[Boby Brno]

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19297952.sir-james-dyson-lashes-shameful-bbc-broadcaster-issues-apology/

[kent_white]

29 minutes ago, Not in Crawley said:

Oh no, of course not - I just think a re-prioritisation back onto local communities and away from westminster would reinvigorate politics again and there is such a dangerous imbalance between London and the South East and the rest of the country.

You like to race to men's bottoms. That's what you like to do, you do! 

Edited May 12, 2021 by kent_white

[Tonge moor green jacket]

2 hours ago, Spider said:

So a loss of trillions is only important for the day that news is announced?

You don’t think the impact will have consequences that may go beyond a single day?

I might ring my mortgage lender and say yeah, I borrowed that money but it was AGES ago, let’s just put it all behind us and move on. Boring now.

I think a trillion pound loss of business may just filter its way beyond the walls of the trading floors of London Town.

What will the effects of this actually be?

Do you know- I certainly don't.

Going round looking for news articles that may suit your narrative doesn't prove your point one iota.

Like all of the visionaries said, it will take a number of years before we can start to see the net effect of it all.

If that sees more people earning a moderate wage in increased industrial activity, and a few less earning mega bucks in the city, then so be it. 

In the meantime, I have a good financial advisor and a reasonably performing pension- I trust the former to ensure that my money works for me whatever markets it is invested in.

As for the huge offices that may not be utilised as much any more because of covid- maybe the finance companies can downsize/share, and invest in the housing that is in such short supply down in London, and maybe shift some of the investments in coal to the benefit of everyone.

Opportunity abounds, unless you want to keep moaning of course.

[Sweep]

1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Like all of the visionaries said, it will take a number of years before we can start to see the net effect of it all.

 

I'm not sure that "all" the visionaries said we'd have to wait a number of years. At least JRM admitted it could take a few decades, people like them cunts Davis and Farage suggested that we'd see an almost immediate upturn/improvement on our situation (obviously only simpletons believed them)

The City was always going to suffer, as were Fishermen and Farmers, everybody who knows anything about business knew that. As has been said many times, winners and losers, those who have lost, it's just tough shit, they have to stop crying and get over it.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I'm not sure that "all" the visionaries said we'd have to wait a number of years. At least JRM admitted it could take a few decades, people like them cunts Davis and Farage suggested that we'd see an almost immediate upturn/improvement on our situation (obviously only simpletons believed them)

The City was always going to suffer, as were Fishermen and Farmers, everybody who knows anything about business knew that. As has been said many times, winners and losers, those who have lost, it's just tough shit, they have to stop crying and get over it.

He actually said

“The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years.”

[Tonge moor green jacket]

8 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I'm not sure that "all" the visionaries said we'd have to wait a number of years. At least JRM admitted it could take a few decades, people like them cunts Davis and Farage suggested that we'd see an almost immediate upturn/improvement on our situation (obviously only simpletons believed them)

The City was always going to suffer, as were Fishermen and Farmers, everybody who knows anything about business knew that. As has been said many times, winners and losers, those who have lost, it's just tough shit, they have to stop crying and get over it.

Fishing is far more complicated. They have and will continue to benefit from increased quota access- obviously it isn't as much as they wanted up front, but that will come in time. However the biggest problem is environmental: they are going to have to change their methods, catches, quotas etc accordingly or they'll all be gone soon enough anyway. 

Farmers most certainly aren't going to suffer- don't know where you get that from.

Again environmental issues are going to become a priority, as are changing diets, and being free from the eu makes responding to that much easier.

[Sweep]

15 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

He actually said

“The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years.”

Fair enough, at least he didn't suggest it would be immediate like some did.

I've said all along, we'll have a few bumpy years, it's to be expected as we get over the teething issues, then we'll be OK, and hopefully we'll prosper. By 2030 you'd hope we'll be in a much better position than we where before we left

Edited May 12, 2021 by Sweep

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Sweep said:

Fair enough, at least he didn't suggest it works be immediate like some did.

I've said all along, we'll have a few bumpy years, it's to be expected as we get over the teething issues, then we'll be OK, and hopefully we'll prosper. By 2030 you'd hope we'll be in a much better position than we where before we left

Indeed

We’ll be fine.

There are bigger issues/risks around.

[Spider]

1 hour ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

What will the effects of this actually be?

Do you know- I certainly don't.

Going round looking for news articles that may suit your narrative doesn't prove your point one iota.

Like all of the visionaries said, it will take a number of years before we can start to see the net effect of it all.

If that sees more people earning a moderate wage in increased industrial activity, and a few less earning mega bucks in the city, then so be it. 

In the meantime, I have a good financial advisor and a reasonably performing pension- I trust the former to ensure that my money works for me whatever markets it is invested in.

As for the huge offices that may not be utilised as much any more because of covid- maybe the finance companies can downsize/share, and invest in the housing that is in such short supply down in London, and maybe shift some of the investments in coal to the benefit of everyone.

Opportunity abounds, unless you want to keep moaning of course.

I didn’t look for the article, Winchester posted it and then I read it. As it was Bloomberg I considered it a pretty reliable source of info, rather than someone on Twitter with 3000 followers which they assume makes them a trusted source.

The benefits were sold as instant and wide ranging. So far, I haven’t seen any for me - and as you’ve touched on in your post, it’s very much an I’m alright Jack world.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

3 minutes ago, Spider said:

I didn’t look for the article, Winchester posted it and then I read it. As it was Bloomberg I considered it a pretty reliable source of info, rather than someone on Twitter with 3000 followers which they assume makes them a trusted source.

The benefits were sold as instant and wide ranging. So far, I haven’t seen any for me - and as you’ve touched on in your post, it’s very much an I’m alright Jack world.

Doesn't matter who posted it, you are using it for the purpose as described. 

My post is exactly the opposite too, everyone is going to have change in the decades to come, and that should help spread the wealth a little.

I've believed all along the best benefit of brexit will be environmental. It won't be sweetness and light for all, but allows us to take the necessary steps now, and mitigate any pain, by opening up alternatives.

Those individuals who are stuck in their ways will either have to take up new opportunities, or sink and allow newer, more energetic individuals to lead the way.

Share trading isn't really a great concern for a beef or dairy farmer, however a reduction in demand, environmental concerns over its production and impact, and effects of current climate change will be. The help that is forthcoming with regards to diversification, and investment into "Green projects" is new, innovative and very much welcome.

Similar for industry. Modify and thrive.

How well they grasp the opportunity is up to them.

[paulhanley]

Remind me again ...weren't we all supposed to be in poverty having left the EU?

As Britain booms again, let us scrub ‘despite Brexit’ from the lexicon

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Business Editor, The Telegraph

By early next year the UK is set to close the entire economic gap with the eurozone that has built up since the Brexit referendum.

Britain’s coiled-spring recovery is now an economic fact, and it looks even stronger than the most giddy optimists had dared to hope. 

Barring any upset from Covid variants or a bond rout, the British economy will be the G7 star this year. That is not in itself surprising. Part of this is a mechanical V-shaped rebound from last year’s exaggerated statistical dip.  

But what may surprise some is the real possibility that the UK will grow faster than a slowing China in 2022 as Rishi Sunak’s “super deduction” on plant and machinery investment unlocks a treasure of excess corporate savings.

It may also outgrow Joe Biden’s America, despite his fiscal trillions and a compliant Federal Reserve. That would crown the first authentic year of Brexit – without pandemic distortions – fundamentally changing global perceptions of Britain’s post-EU reinvention. 

The 2.1pc jump in GDP in March blew away consensus. It silences persistent talk that the UK has gained little from early vaccination and is still essentially moving in economic lockstep with Europe. Blockbuster growth of 5pc (20pc-plus annualised) is on the cards for this quarter. 

 

The pace is so torrid that Capital Economics thinks the UK may regain its pre-pandemic level of output by late summer, with little or no permanent scarring. Investec has pencilled in the sorpasso for September, saying growth could “easily exceed” 8pc this year.

If so, the UK will cross its pre-Covid line long before the eurozone, and a year ahead of the Club Med bloc. On a nominal GDP basis, it has already matched Germany and overtaken France, Italy, and Spain.

This is a remarkable turn of fortunes given that the OECD, IMF, and other voices of the global establishment were predicting something close to perma-slump for these benighted isles in 2021 and 2022. The OECD forecast in December that the UK would be the economic basket case among developed states this year (along with Argentina), limping into 2022 with output still 6.4pc below pre-Covid levels.

It is well known that British households have amassed £130bn of excess savings during Covid. We will find out soon how much of this is pent-up spending waiting to explode. But what is less known is that UK companies are sitting on a further £100bn, some 50pc above normal levels. “We think this is even more important,”  said David Owen from Jefferies.

“The super deduction has cut the effective marginal rate of corporation tax to zero. Companies have all this cash sitting on their balance sheets and it’s a no brainer for them to invest,” he said. The latest CBI survey shows that investment intentions are a whisker shy of thirty-year highs.  

The Bank of England thinks business spending on plant and digital technology will rise by 7pc this year and 13pc next year, matching the IT blitz during the dotcom boom in 1998.

“It won’t be the Roaring Twenties but we are about to ride an investment wave. It’s a Covid story, a net-zero story, and a Brexit story, all coming together in a very optimistic way,” says Owen.

The trade data for March showed that goods exports to the EU have largely regained their prior levels and are above flows last summer when the UK was still part of the single market. Even exports of fish and shellfish have returned to normal. 

“People were far too pessimistic about the magnitude of the hit. The idea that there was going to be a seismic fall in trade after Brexit was always rubbish. Companies adapt,” says Julian Jessop, a fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs.

This export rebound comes despite some harassment. The National Pig Association says 30pc of all UK consignments to the EU are being checked, far higher than for other third countries. Just 1pc of pig imports from New Zealand are checked. I will add British pork to my next shopping trip.

We can start to separate teething problems from the structural effects of Brexit, and start to make a coherent judgement on where we stand. What is clear already is that British firms are learning to cope with customs red-tape – because they have little choice, and because the size of the EU market makes it worthwhile. The numbers complaining of UK border disruption have fallen to 7pc from 35pc in early February. 

What is equally clear is that EU firms have lost UK market share to global competitors. Imports from the rest of the world are growing twice as fast, and this divergence is likely to widen when Britain ends its unilateral waiver on customs clearance for EU goods and imposes reciprocal curbs.

The EU’s decision to make cross-Channel trade more cumbersome than flows under other trade deals – as a penalty for refusing to remain a full regulatory satellite – has had one salient consequence so far: it has hurt small European exporters.

There is much that can still go wrong for the UK. Simon Ward from Janus Henderson says the red-hot growth in the money supply risks a “major blow-out” in the balance of payments and ultimately a sterling upset. 

“What is concerning is that the UK’s money growth has overtaken other major areas. It’s crazy that they are still doing QE,” he says. His measure of broad money growth – non-financial M4 – topped 16pc earlier this year, the fastest pace since the Lawson credit boom in the late 1980s. This will catch fire if velocity returns to normal.

The Bank of England has underestimated the strength of the rebound and is coming under increasingly ferocious criticism from monetarists. It will have to navigate a treacherous exit from over-stimulus. Any delay in tightening only makes it harder.

Europe too will have its boom. But recovery will start later, due to third wave lockdowns in April. It will be less exuberant when it comes. Industrial bottlenecks will be a bigger relative headwind for the manufacturing hubs of Germany and Italy. Fiscal stimulus is greater than it was but is half-hearted compared to Bidenomics. 

The Commission’s Spring Forecast released on Wednesday said the eurozone would grow 4.3pc this year and 4.4pc next year, implying that most countries will not recoup their lost GDP before 2022. 

The Recovery Fund remains totemic in EU rhetoric but is proving smaller than headline figures suggest. Submissions so far amount to just €433bn, too little to move the macroeconomic needle for the bloc as a whole over a five-year period. Most countries have shunned the loan component, with the notable exception of Mario Draghi’s Italy. “It’s lacklustre,” said Bert Colijn from ING.

My bet: by early next year the UK will have closed the entire economic gap with the eurozone that has built up since the Referendum shock in 2016; by the end of next year it will have regained its pre-pandemic trajectory, almost as if Covid had never happened.

At that point the UK’s maligned economy will have overtaken the eurozone big four and established an outright lead of around 2pc of GDP. Can we then scrub the words “despite Brexit” from the journalistic lexicon?

 

[Spider]

I bet that journalist backs every horse in the grand National just so he can say he picked a winner.

that’s an amazing piece of writing.

[wanderer1984]

4 hours ago, Boby Brno said:

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19297952.sir-james-dyson-lashes-shameful-bbc-broadcaster-issues-apology/

But he's Johnson's best mate so can't be true. 🙄

[Spider]

1 minute ago, wanderer1984 said:

But he's Johnson's best mate so can't be true. 🙄

I’ll say it again, because it’s true

If Dyson spent £30million on research into making ventilators, he can claim 70% of it back as an R&D Tax relief. This is normal for uk manufacturers.

These are effectively gambles that all manufacturers take on product development as it may make them more money if/when it comes off.

So let’s not pour too much pity on Dyson, he’d have happily taken the government shilling if his research had been any good.

Also, his hoovers are fucking shit nowadays.

[Boby Brno]

I posted the article because it was about an apology by the BBC for broadcasting misleading information. You won’t find it on the BBC news though. 

[Escobarp]

2 minutes ago, Boby Brno said:

I posted the article because it was about an apology by the BBC for broadcasting misleading information. You won’t find it on the BBC news though. 

Nor apologies from those on here frothing are the mouth about it at the time sadly. But it’s to be expected from them. 

Edited May 12, 2021 by Escobarp