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medwaywhite

Melbourne Cup 2018

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Bolty any information about this years runners koukash is running magic circle won the Chester cup reckons it will win the Melbourne cup took 25s what you reckon

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Nothing really standing out here yet mate. I've spoken to the Melbourne racing industry crowd who told me about Prince of Penzance at 100-1 which I famously took no fucking notice of and they have advised as follows.

 

Last years winner Rekindling has a big chance of repeating. Not so sure myself after Almandin's performance. The rise in weight seems to stuff the chances of a lot of the previous lightweight winners.

 

A lot of talk about a Japanese horse coming over called Chestnut Coat. The Japs have done very well with wins and placings so not to be ignored.

 

Would love to see a UK trained winner but past stats tell you how difficult it is. Only really been Dermot Welds two and Alain De Royer Dupre with Americain who have managed it from that part of the world.

 

Wouldn't put you off though. Has to happen sooner or later.

 

I usually rely on info from nearer the time for the Cup.

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Magic circle will not run again till the Melbourne Cup koukash is happy with the weight allocated and doesn’t want to jeopardise it by running it again also states the horse runs well when fresh odds cut to 16/1 with bet365 2nd favourite

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You are getting me interested mate! Having said that, Chester and Flemington could not be more different.

 

Moonee Valley where they run the Cox Plate is much nearer to the Roodee course. If it goes around in the lead up race (Moonee Valley Cup) I might have to be on!

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Any other British horses declared?

not seen any but yesterday at the York meeting they said a few might go over to Australia ,didn’t say which

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not seen any but yesterday at the York meeting they said a few might go over to Australia ,didn’t say which

Looks like Cross Counter is going - he broke the course record at a Goodwood in the Gordon Stakes the other week but got beat a head getting 3lb off Old Persian in the Voltigeur yesterday. They seem to like him a lot but Melbourne’s a hell of an ask for a three year old.

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Looks like Cross Counter is going - he broke the course record at a Goodwood in the Gordon Stakes the other week but got beat a head getting 3lb off Old Persian in the Voltigeur yesterday. They seem to like him a lot but Melbourne’s a hell of an ask for a three year old.

 

Correct. History shows that 4 and 5 year olds rule the roost in this gruelling 2 miler. Recent history has shown good 3yo's can be broken by the experience. Often never seen again and only heard of in the breeding barn.

 

The last 3yo winner was back in the 40's (Skipton). History never lies.

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Posted (edited)

A mate of mine in Burntisland claims that a great great uncle of his owned the winner of the Melbourne cup... For the life of me can't remember it's name but his last name was Urquhart. I'm sure the horse was Loch something or other. He tells a great tale of how the horse won on bottomless ground and had it's tail tied up. 

 

Edit: I think was called Glenloch

 

Edit again  wow, it's true, did somew research... this is story he tells. Well worth a read https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/cup-back-home-115-years-later/news-story/1b3f1e130e123ee6ac0647fccd71667b?sv=2497a85fd03a7c740d6c7f029d7dfa7a

Edited by jazza

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Article in the racing post about magic circle. They have booked Corey Thompson to ride it said the jockeys agent contacted them to say he was interested in the ride

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Article in the racing post about magic circle. They have booked Corey Thompson to ride it said the jockeys agent contacted them to say he was interested in the ride

 

Not Corey Brown who piloted Rekindling to success last year?

 

If it is Corey Brown that will really make me sit up and take notice. Proper job jockey this mon. Gets them home.

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Yes it’s Corey brown that’s been booked don’t know where I got Thompson from too much red wine I suppose

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Yes it’s Corey brown that’s been booked don’t know where I got Thompson from too much red wine I suppose

 

 

Good lad! You relax!

 

That is seriously interesting news. He has a superb record. Mainly rides in Singapore and comes down for the 'jobs'. Has a tremendous strike rate when he comes into Oz for the Group 1's.

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Quote

 

Quote

 

Cross Counter has moved into favourite now, and Magic Circle eased back out to 14/1

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I wouldn't be backing a 3yo off their record in the event.

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It’s possible racing has changed, I suppose. I think only half a dozen three year olds have had a go this decade - they include So You Think, who pulled away his chance and finished third when sent off a short-priced favourite, Descarado, who went wrong and was pulled up two furlongs out when challenging, and Rekindling, who coped reasonably well with the demands of the race last year.

Kew Gardens was impressive in the Leger having finished behind Cross Counter giving weight at York, and I’d strongly fancy him to turn that result around over the longer trip if he were to take his chance in November.

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No worries Enzo. Anyone is, of course, entitled to back what they want.

Certainly, records are there to be broken and it is not inconceivable that an outstanding 3 year old may well win one in the coming years and no doubt end up an empty shell and do nothing ever again after such a punishing run. Case in point - Derby winner Nothin Leica Dane (below). I was there and to see that horse in such distress after the race turned my stomach.

I believe no 3yo has won it for 41 years or so. Those who ignore such history do so at their own peril.  The stats clearly show that 4yo's and 5yo's scoop the pot in this marathon and that's where I will be looking.

 

 

 

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BTW if I've fucked up there because Rekindling was only 3 when it won last year I apologise. I was convinced it was a 4yo.

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1 hour ago, bolty58 said:

BTW if I've fucked up there because Rekindling was only 3 when it won last year I apologise. I was convinced it was a 4yo.

He was (though he’s not run since).

So You Think was third in the race as a three year old and went on to win six Group Ones.

It’s definitely a big ask, but the stats are weighted so heavily against the younger horses because there aren’t that many who run. 

 

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Probably a fair comment.

Personally, I don't like the prospect of a 3 year old being put through such a gruelling test. Likewise, I am not too keen on them over racing as two year olds either.

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