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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

Road to Cheltenham


L/H White

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Don't be fooled by the "oooh, we had to pay out £1m after that winner" bullshit.

If they balanced the book properly, they still make 10%+ on every race, check the over-round figures.

If they price a horse up at Even money, it means it has a 45% chance of winning and the overall price is determined by weight of money for all horses, not just that one. Look at the Betfair or Tote model.

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7 hours ago, Traf said:

Don't be fooled by the "oooh, we had to pay out £1m after that winner" bullshit.

If they balanced the book properly, they still make 10%+ on every race, check the over-round figures.

If they price a horse up at Even money, it means it has a 45% chance of winning and the overall price is determined by weight of money for all horses, not just that one. Look at the Betfair or Tote model.

Hills had a 128% overround on the Supreme despite offering 7 places!

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Very, very sad indeed.

Personally, I wouldn't have let him run. Not talking from hindsight here, but I think that if you're not race ready at the off time, you don't run. Races shouldn't be held up.

Secondly, the superstitious side of me, says don't run horses that lose a shoe.

However, these are only my feelings : there was absolutely no reason why he shouldn't have run today and it was a freak incident.

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