Take Over

[Rizlar]

I have a migrane 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

So wages Monday now, with or without a takeover 

 

Whichever way you look at it, Ken is letting us down.

[radcliffe white]

5 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Whichever way you look at it, Ken is letting us down.

Im still impartial on it tbh, until facts are out there nobody knows what’s going on 

[Burndens Bogs]

Anyone else pissed off with hearing about Bluemarble,Inner Circle, Moonshift, Unsecured Loans,Who owes who etc etc?

I try and understand it sometimes, but my brain glazes over as soon as i start reading any financial bollocks, as a lot of the "info"  on here and from Iles/Nixon is just guesswork.

All i'm interested in is getting KA and PP out of our club A.S.A.P.

Edited March 8, 2019 by Burndens Bogs

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

Im still impartial on it tbh, until facts are out there nobody knows what’s going on 

Generally, yes

But, assuming he can pay the players today, why wait until Monday?

[Sweep]

33 minutes ago, Sluffy said:

What I can't seem to comprehend is why anyone would want to buy us?

 

 

Why would anybody buy any football team, they pretty much all hemorrhage money - the only reason for buying a club is ego, and the hope of making a few big bucks if you strike lucky and get promoted very, very quickly

[DirtySanchez]

31 minutes ago, Sluffy said:

 

The only other thought I had business wise was if there was perhaps a plan to sell off assets such as the Hotel and maybe even the ground itself (the ACV ultimately would not stop such a thing)?

 

The ACV generally means cock all. It was brought on under the guise of localism to essentially protect the last pub in the village 

All it means if you have a property that is under an ACV and you want rid you have to give the 'community' a six month period to raise the funds to purchase it. The owner is under no obligation to then sell it to them 

Can't remember how long it is but after a while it becomes de-registered unless there's a new application to register it 

[Steejay]

3 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Generally, yes

But, assuming he can pay the players today, why wait until Monday?

Probably because if he paid today, it would have to come out of his own money whereas if he defers it until Monday, he can build it into the purchase price.

[HomerJay]

im bwfc through and through and i wouldnt personally fund players wages, especially if a months funding was 10% of my own wealth.

and anyone whos says different is either mental or a complete fuckwit

[radcliffe white]

12 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Generally, yes

But, assuming he can pay the players today, why wait until Monday?

Perhaps paying the none playing staff and getting the game on tomorrow has cleaned him out, really don’t know 

[Howardroark]

35 minutes ago, Benny The Ball said:

Had heard we had borrowed a substantial sum against the EFL payment that came through in late January and presumed that was a one off  and is in part why our cash flow is now so dire  

The picture you are painting of borrowings against future  EFL payments begs the question where has all the cash gone with unsecured creditors at the levels they are ? 

 

Cash incomings just services the debt taken on in the first 12-18 months. 3 years of ticket sales-factored, sponsorship deals- factored, hotel reservations-factored, corporate boxes-factored. 

The issue comes when the expected volume for factoring is far greater than the actual amount, especially when the factoring company handles all your merchant accounts and releases funds after their payment.... 

The above is one of the issues Basran faces, in a typical takeover you would raise funds against assets, in this case there are literally no assets that aren’t charged or collateral.

 

[Howardroark]

55 minutes ago, Sluffy said:

What I can't seem to comprehend is why anyone would want to buy us?

Obviously folk do but what is their rationale?

On the face of it I guess is to achieve promotion to the Premier League riches - but that won't be happening for a year or three at best - and despite how much the new owners chuck at it, promotion isn't guaranteed.

Let us say for argument sake we get taken over very shortly by new owners but relegation to the third tier is inevitable.

The new owners would need to fund the club for the remainder of this season, the financial year ending at the end of July, so the running costs for wages alone at £600k per month would be £3 million.  Depending how the new owners purchases the club they would have to pay something for it and deal with at least some of the outstanding creditors (I mean the likes of James and Warburton who have deferred their settlement of their secured loans at least once already).

Again for argument sake let us say this is done by the means suggested by Howardroark (hello to the forum btw) which seems to involve the least up front costs to the purchaser of £5 million (plus of course hidden costs such as legal fees, etc).

So the new owners are in for £8 million and start next season at third tier level - and a drop of something like £7 million in revenue from being in the Championship.

I would suggest that to get promoted back at the first opportunity their would be a need to have a quality of squad commensurate with winning promotion and so a wage bill to enable that to be achieved.  Our wage bill is reportedly £600kpm (including Amos) so at a guess I suggest that would probably be around £450/500k per month or £5.4/6millon pa. (let's say £5.5 million as a sum to work with).

Let's also think there would be a transfer fund also, shall we say £3 million perhaps - subject to any embargo placed upon us.

Anderson claimed a year or so ago that the club would lose £6 million last season (it seemed to more or less breakeven due to the Madine sale) and breakeven this season - that of course is with the £7m premium of being in the Championship which will be lost - so I guess there will be a shortfall of some size for the new owners to find next season (bare in mind we ran an operational loss when we were promoted a couple of seasons back although we had a much higher wage bill at the time.  Let say the new owners need to find another £2 million to keep the club afloat next season.

So just to get promoted first time  to where we are now would cost them £13 million (£5m purchase, £3m wages this season as clearly there is nothing left in the pot until season end, £3m transfers, £2 million trading loss in the third tier) and that doesn't include paying off creditors such as James and Warburton).

Then if we really went for promotion the costs would really rocket for transfer purchases, increased wages and subsequent trading losses - and with no guarantee of promotion.

If we don't go up and go for it again - but if we fail - then we hit the buffers with FFP regulations and it's consequences.

And if we do go up then what will it cost to simply stop there - and the consequences if we don't?

Just seems a really crappy business plan to me unless you've got millions to piss away.

Obviously some folk do.

The only other thought I had business wise was if there was perhaps a plan to sell off assets such as the Hotel and maybe even the ground itself (the ACV ultimately would not stop such a thing)?

Maybe there are other ways I've not thought of?

Anyway better to live for another day and see what pans out.

 

Because the incomings are fairly stable and repetitive and the outgoings aren’t hugely volatile. 

The risk to reward ratio is fairly low. 

Bolton don’t require major infrastructure investments either which appeals.

[Sluffy]

22 minutes ago, DirtySanchez said:

The ACV generally means cock all. It was brought on under the guise of localism to essentially protect the last pub in the village 

All it means if you have a property that is under an ACV and you want rid you have to give the 'community' a six month period to raise the funds to purchase it. The owner is under no obligation to then sell it to them 

Can't remember how long it is but after a while it becomes de-registered unless there's a new application to register it 

Thank you mate for the explanation, I appreciate it.

I do apologise to you for having to go to the bother of doing it though as I actually did know most of that but I think how I wrote my sentence to which you kindly responded should have been much clearer and prevented any confusion to others.

What I was meaning to say was that I wondered if one business strategy to buy the club might be a plan to sell off assets such as the ground - hence the question mark.

I was merely trying to point out by putting in brackets that the ACV would not prevent an ultimate sale of the ground if it came to that - and not asking the question if it did.

As I say apologies for the confusion and my appreciation and thanks for you trying to help me.

 

 

Whilst I'm posting - thank you to Bolton Diver for his kind words above.

 

[Sluffy]

8 minutes ago, Howardroark said:

Because the incomings are fairly stable and repetitive and the outgoings aren’t hugely volatile. 

The risk to reward ratio is fairly low. 

Bolton don’t require major infrastructure investments either which appeals.

Thank you.

I guess the risk depends on what you can afford to lose.

Seems to me that to be competitive would involve expenditure exceeding revenue at least in the short term but the reward great if you can achieve it within the confines and timescale of FFP.

Too rich for most people's pockets, I would think.

Hopefully our new owners have exceedingly deep pockets.

Thank you also for sharing your apparent insight of the clubs current financial position with us.

 

 

[Howardroark]

You are quite correct and herein lies a substantial question: Does a VC fund like Basran’s really have the funds required to do this? The fund wasn’t dedicated to sporting ventures, nor is it particularly large in size. 

This is why I return to the suggestion that whoever buys the club simply acquires the Inner Circle debt with Moonshift and works with creditors to establish a sensible approach to repayment. For creditors it means they keep lucrative contracts and protect against administration. 

Obviously some will require immediate payment (HMRC and KA) total £8M but if Basran does have £28M then surely it would be better to put the remaining £15M in to the club (£5M debt acquisition + £8M to KA&HMRC takes from £28M)?

[Tonge moor green jacket]

49 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Why would anybody buy any football team, they pretty much all hemorrhage money - the only reason for buying a club is ego, and the hope of making a few big bucks if you strike lucky and get promoted very, very quickly

Even then they only realise the money if they sell, and the next owners need a different motive, as they're not going to get the promotion dividend.

Burnley must be a model for most teams outside the top six or so. Live within your means, and maybe take a little annual dividend without being greedy.

[dazl1212]

4 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Even then they only realise the money if they sell, and the next owners need a different motive, as they're not going to get the promotion dividend.

Burnley must be a model for most teams outside the top six or so. Live within your means, and maybe take a little annual dividend without being greedy.

Would Burnleys model; still work if Dyche were to leave? 

[Mounts Kipper]

1 hour ago, boltondiver said:

ST should be onto this

£29m is chicken feed to their investors

You’re closer than you think. Allegedly. 

Edited March 8, 2019 by Mounts Kipper

[Tonge moor green jacket]

3 minutes ago, dazl1212 said:

Would Burnleys model; still work if Dyche were to leave? 

I think so. Don't pay out too much for players etc.

[radcliffe white]

2 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I think so. Don't pay out too much for players etc.

According to coyle we was 5-10 years ahead of burnley 

[Mounts Kipper]

Just now, radcliffewhite1 said:

According to coyle we was 5-10 years ahead of burnley 

Within 12-18 months they could easily be playing us again. 

[DomRepWanderer]

Marc Iles‏ @MarcIles 9m9 minutes ago

More

Replying to @jcook95

Players seem OK with the Monday promise. It was the total lack of info that was worrying them. As for takeover, I'm feeling more confident.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

3 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Within 12-18 months they could easily be playing us again. 

True, but if they stick to their guns, they wouldn't be skint like we are.

 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

1 minute ago, DomRepWanderer said:

Marc Iles‏ @MarcIles 9m9 minutes ago

More

Replying to @jcook95

Players seem OK with the Monday promise. It was the total lack of info that was worrying them. As for takeover, I'm feeling more confident.

Which Monday?

[Sluffy]

8 minutes ago, Howardroark said:

You are quite correct and herein lies a substantial question: Does a VC fund like Basran’s really have the funds required to do this? The fund wasn’t dedicated to sporting ventures, nor is it particularly large in size. 

This is why I return to the suggestion that whoever buys the club simply acquires the Inner Circle debt with Moonshift and works with creditors to establish a sensible approach to repayment. For creditors it means they keep lucrative contracts and protect against administration. 

Obviously some will require immediate payment (HMRC and KA) total £8M but if Basran does have £28M then surely it would be better to put the remaining £15M in to the club (£5M debt acquisition + £8M to KA&HMRC takes from £28M)?

I would guess if Basran did intend to pay £28 million, then he would also have additional funds as well to put into the club - funding of the future wages (which we don't seem to have if Anderson really needs to fund last months from his own pocket would seem to suggest) for the rest of the season alone would involve something like £3m.

So his budgeted investment would be upwards of £30 million at least.

I'm out of my depth to know the legal and financial timeframes and ramifications of going down the route you suggest but it always seemed to me that the end of Anderson's tenure would have to involve Moonshift and the other major creditors in some respect.

I do hope you stick around and keep us informed of what you can in the days and weeks ahead.

Thank you for your input already today.