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bolty58

Melbourne Cup 2019

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I know there's been a bit of interest up there in recent years so here we go again.

Think Finche (gelding by Frankel) who ran 4th last year in his first attempt is a decent bet at around 20/1 at present. Won a good group race last weekend in his comeback and looks immense.

Ispolini trained by Charlie Appleby is well in discussions down here - maybe you lads can tell me more?

Couple of Japanese trained horses also being nibbled at by the right punters down here - Lys Gracieux and Mer De Glace.

No guarantee  that all four will make it to the Cup (for example Lys Gracieux connections hinting that if she won the Cox Plate they might leave it at that).

Barring injury though, Finche will definitely be in the field.

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Looks like two of them have not paid up for the next stage of nomination and only Finche and Ispolini left in of the four. I will double check.

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Can't see the other two anywhere in the betting down here now so assume they have decided not to come over.

Hoping you lads can send me some info on Ispolini. Bit of a talking horse down here generating a lot of interest (Appleby's always do down here these days).

Finche just looks the bollocks. Being brought along nicely. Just had a place bet today at 2.75 but into it at various points between 14.5 and 14.0 win and 5.0 and 4.5 the place for the big one. 

Looked every inch a bull of a two miler today:

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/fields-results/results/turnbull-stakes-results-and-replay-2019/551144

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8 hours ago, bolty58 said:

Can't see the other two anywhere in the betting down here now so assume they have decided not to come over.

Hoping you lads can send me some info on Ispolini. Bit of a talking horse down here generating a lot of interest (Appleby's always do down here these days).

Finche just looks the bollocks. Being brought along nicely. Just had a place bet today at 2.75 but into it at various points between 14.5 and 14.0 win and 5.0 and 4.5 the place for the big one. 

Looked every inch a bull of a two miler today:

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/fields-results/results/turnbull-stakes-results-and-replay-2019/551144

Ispolini wouldn't be a Melbourne Cup horse based on his career so far?

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/1266779/ispolini/form

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Just read the link mate. Looks promising to me!

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On 26/09/2019 at 17:38, bolty58 said:

I know there's been a bit of interest up there in recent years so here we go again.

Think Finche (gelding by Frankel) who ran 4th last year in his first attempt is a decent bet at around 20/1 at present. Won a good group race last weekend in his comeback and looks immense.

Ispolini trained by Charlie Appleby is well in discussions down here - maybe you lads can tell me more?

Couple of Japanese trained horses also being nibbled at by the right punters down here - Lys Gracieux and Mer De Glace.

No guarantee  that all four will make it to the Cup (for example Lys Gracieux connections hinting that if she won the Cox Plate they might leave it at that).

Barring injury though, Finche will definitely be in the field.

Well, Mer De Glace won the AUD$5M Caulfield Cup today. Won't be surprised to see Lys Gracieux win the Cox Plate next Saturday either.

I did have an interest bet on MDG today but was very pleased to see Finche run a 'get fit' fifth. Screaming out for the two miles now.

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Thought Constantinople did well considering it ran into trouble

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"Lys Gracieux is an 8-10 lengths better horse than Mer De Glace over 2000 metres". Fuck me, were they ever right.

Corporate day at Ascot races today. Persuaded all 9 of the others to load up on her but they had missed the 3.70 I had been taking for the last week or more. Cleaned up then the England WC semi final came on with 3 races to go so we forgot all about the racing! Brilliant result (4 of us had loaded up on England too). Just got home, drank myself sober. We cracked 3 bottles of Veuve Cliquot too but they can splash that fizzy vinegar shite up the wall as far as I am concerned.

Just hope some of you were on - Damian Lane has won all 3 of this years big races (Golden Slipper, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate) so his choice between Mer De Glace and Finche for the Melbourne Cup will now be pivotal. I have MDG going round at 44.00 for the big one!

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This was an explosive win. In some ways as good as Winx's finest. 

 

Western Australian jockey Damian Lane is now in a unique position. He has won 3 of the big 4 Australian races (Golden Slipper, Caulfield Cup, W.S. Cox Plate) and now has the choice of Finche or Mer De Glace for the Melbourne Cup. He has chosen the latter after the authoratitive win in the Caulfield Cup. If he is right, I won't be too upset. I had $133 win on her at $44.00 back in September as well as a good lump at $9.00 for the place.

Just not sure she will get the two miles whereas Finche has already proved it and acquired the first class services of Kerrin McEvoy. My best result will now be Mer De Glace to win and Finche 2nd, 3rd or fourth. I have Ispolini covered too. Still offering $32 the win and $8.00 the place today. I know Traf doesn't rate its chances over 2 miles but had to have a small interest just in case!

 

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Ispolini is out because it apparently went shin sore.

Sounds like legal action pending by Marmelo connections.

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They seem a bit keen to throw foreign horses out...

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5 hours ago, Traf said:

They seem a bit keen to throw foreign horses out...

Apart from the ones they bought five minutes ago to pass off as home-trained runners. 

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Indeed.

Typical cheating Aussies.

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Have to agree. Fucking stinks when connections have spent a fortune getting here.

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Depends, if Marmelo broke down with the world watching, there would be hell to pay.

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7 minutes ago, jmjhb said:

Depends, if Marmelo broke down with the world watching, there would be hell to pay.

Would there? It happens, sadly. It happened to Cliffs of Moher in last year’s race but I don’t recall any uproar.

Godolphin and Morrison will both have access to some of the best equine veterinary advice in the world - I feel sure they’d pull their horses of their own accord if there was something amiss.

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52 minutes ago, enzo gambaro said:

Would there? It happens, sadly. It happened to Cliffs of Moher in last year’s race but I don’t recall any uproar.

Godolphin and Morrison will both have access to some of the best equine veterinary advice in the world - I feel sure they’d pull their horses of their own accord if there was something amiss.

They probably don't want a repeat of the sad scenes last year, so are now being ultra-cautious.

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Finding it hard to get over excited about this years renewal,  so I will probably go with Finche & Constantinople. 
 

Mirage Dancer is too short at 7/2 to offer any real value and the fact there are 3 others priced even shorter (27/20, 6/4 and 2/1) is ridiculous. 
 

This implies that it’s a 96% chance (ie odds of 1/24) that one of the top four in the market wins it, showing what wankers the bookies are.

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Where are those odds coming from Traf?  This is the local Tote just now:-

 

https://www.tabtouch.com.au/racing/2019-11-05/mr/7

 

Wise move with Constantinople. Getting a lot of interest here - similar CV to previous winner Rekindling. Lightweight European with a good barrier and international 'job jockey' brought over just to ride it.

Edited by bolty58

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2 hours ago, bolty58 said:

Where are those odds coming from Traf?  This is the local Tote just now:-

 

https://www.tabtouch.com.au/racing/2019-11-05/mr/7

 

Wise move with Constantinople. Getting a lot of interest here - similar CV to previous winner Rekindling. Lightweight European with a good barrier and international 'job jockey' brought over just to ride it.

I'd better take a second look. I might have been looking at the wrong thing. It was 6am after a night of NFL after all.

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