Staying Up - what are the chances?

[peelyfeet]

After last nights performance, do you think we've got any chance of staying up? 

50 points usually does it in a 46 game season.

So, possibly 47 or 48 will do it this time.

that means we need to win at least 56 points, maybe 59 with another penalty looming.

with only 34 games left, there's 102 points left to play for.

[kent_white]

It's possible but unlikely - especially with the potential for another points deduction looming. Without that - I'd give us a 50/50 chance of staying up. I have to believe we're 16 points better than Tranmere over the remainder of the season. 

How sweet would that be by the way!

[Traf]

I think it's a tall order, getting taller each time we fail to win. If you say 60pts from 34 games, you have to win at least 13 of them.

[Leyther_Matt]

Got to start winning games like last night if it’s going to happen. Chuffed with how secure we look at the back compared to even 3/4 weeks ago, but we can’t keep relying on Verlinden going forward. 

[Big E]

when are we losing the extra points ?? 

[Leyther_Matt]

1 minute ago, Big E said:

when are we losing the extra points ?? 

Once we gain them. 

[Traf]

1 minute ago, Big E said:

when are we losing the extra points ?? 

Once the EFL have worked out how many they need to deduct to ensure relegation.

[L/H White]

i'm told its likely 6 points with the rest suspended

[BOWTUN BAKED]

3 minutes ago, Traf said:

Once the EFL have worked out how many they need to deduct to ensure relegation.

& there in lies the truth of it!

[Biggish Dave]

16 minutes ago, L/H White said:

i'm told its likely 6 points with the rest suspended

If this is what we do end up getting, i'd say survival is nigh on impossible. Hard enough now, could possibly cope with 3 more but not 6

[HomerJay]

3 favs all odds on, on betfair

1/8 Bolton

2/7 Southend

2/5 Wimbledon

 

[Rudy]

say we won the next 3 games and Southend and Wimbledon didn’t pick up a point we’d be on 1 point and close to them 

All hypothetical and a bit unlikely but It would look a damn sight more achievable. Keep getting clean sheets and the wins will come 

Edited October 8, 2019 by Rudy’s Message

[Burndens Bogs]

Very very tall order to stay up imo.

[Matty]

Almost certain if we avoid a further points deduction and we start turning draws to wins 

[bwfcfan5]

We have almost no chance for 3 reasons:

Further points deduction - at least 6. So we're on minus 14 now.

We've built a decent team that would be near the top of this league with all things equal. But we're playing catch up and I don't see the capability to suddenly win 10 in a row - the sort of run we're going to need.

And we've got injuries to our better players with a small and restricted squad.

I don't really care that much. I think we might even be better off going down rebuilding and getting promotion from league two and coming back into this league with real momentum. Sure be amazing to stay up but I don't think we've quite got the squad, luck or situation necessary to do so. 

The football last night was nice, we matched if not bettered a side looking at top 6 - but we still don't look like scoring. And whilst eventually goals will come we will need to be scoring a lot to survive. I really do not see it with this group of players. Just like the last squad we look very light on players who will hit the net regularly. Murphy....possibly Crawford from free kicks ...beyond that?

[ianofcleveleys]

21 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

We have almost no chance for 3 reasons:

Further points deduction - at least 6. So we're on minus 14 now.

We've built a decent team that would be near the top of this league with all things equal. But we're playing catch up and I don't see the capability to suddenly win 10 in a row - the sort of run we're going to need.

And we've got injuries to our better players with a small and restricted squad.

I don't really care that much. I think we might even be better off going down rebuilding and getting promotion from league two and coming back into this league with real momentum. Sure be amazing to stay up but I don't think we've quite got the squad, luck or situation necessary to do so. 

The football last night was nice, we matched if not bettered a side looking at top 6 - but we still don't look like scoring. And whilst eventually goals will come we will need to be scoring a lot to survive. I really do not see it with this group of players. Just like the last squad we look very light on players who will hit the net regularly. Murphy....possibly Crawford from free kicks ...beyond that?

Where I'm at. No great expectations of survival for all those reasons and happy enough to be back watching some decent games and getting behind a team that's trying hard and playing something I recognise as football. Because of that I'm not in the 'we really really need to start winning soon' camp. We will, soon enough

[HomerJay]

1.7pts per game? i think thats doable. Tough. But doable.

[tomski]

No chance. Not being negative. Shazza, Hill and co have been left with to much to do. To think if that bellend KA had sold us over last Jan we may well of been a championship club rather than a L2 club 

[Okocha10]

Really pisses me off the EFL have still not made any decision yet, seem's like they are doing the exact same thing the did with Birmingham seeing how many points they had near the end of the season then give them the point deduction to make sure they definitely wouldn't go up. But with us it's to make sure we are definitely relegated this season (that's if we even get near any team above us). Even though we have -12 point deduction already & a transfer embargo. Might as well say we have to play with one limb next 

[peelyfeet]

From what I've seen over the last few weeks, I think we've got a better chance than some would give us.

From now until the end of the season we need the form of a team who would normally finish around 8th, 9th, 10th.

If we can win 4 out of the next 10 games between now and boxing day, will be a good indicator. 

Rochdale,  MK Dons, Wimbledon and Southend all at home, look like good shouts. Accrington probably the easiest away.

Edited October 8, 2019 by peelyfeet

[gregbwfc]

See where we are come the end of January. 

If the gap is 10 points, that's possible.

Still be a tall order mind.

COYWM  

 

[burnden]

Fully expecting to go down this season , if we weren't expecting more deductions maybe we would have a hope but still would be a big ask. Build a team and a style of play this season that will enable us to bounce straight back up as champions next season.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

No.

I've been optimistic until last night.

However I don't see us being able to score enough goals. We might be able to get a goalscorer in in January, but by then it would probably be too late.

Defensively, were doing well, but draws aren't enough, and with the best will in the world, you can't expect a clean sheet every game.

So goals become more critical that ever.

[Mannyroader]

38 minutes ago, gregbwfc said:

See where we are come the end of January. 

If the gap is 10 points, that's possible.

Still be a tall order mind.

COYWM  

 

I would say start of January, when the transfer window opens. I am wondering why the EFL convened a disciplinary panel to punish Liverpool but couldn't deal with us at the same time.

[bwfcfan5]

41 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

No.

I've been optimistic until last night.

However I don't see us being able to score enough goals. We might be able to get a goalscorer in in January, but by then it would probably be too late.

Defensively, were doing well, but draws aren't enough, and with the best will in the world, you can't expect a clean sheet every game.

So goals become more critical that ever.

Murphy's a goalscorer - but needs better service than last night. But when you look round rest - not many likely to get 5 let alone double figures. Dodoo might I guess.