Staying Up - what are the chances?

[peelyfeet]

Southend have now replaced us as favourites for the drop with some bookies.

If we carry on current form from last 4 matches, and Wimbledon carry on their form from the start of the season, we'll finish above them. Big ifs I know. And also need to take the further points deduction into account, but I think survival is still on.

November is a massive  month of opportunity. Fleetwood, MK Don's and Accy. If we get it right, we will be in a positive points position in a few weeks.

[Wanderlust]

Technically not impossible but from this position - and with the potential of a further points deduction - it would require us to play like a top team every week and get something out of nearly every game. Having just got our first win I'm far from convinced we'll be able to do that every week.

Nor do we look like a settled side yet. As Hill said in his post match interview:

“It’s too difficult to explain the mechanics of that game, the way we arrived at this point with the players we’ve got missing,” he said after the game. “We played a system tonight with players who have barely been on the training pitch and credit to them."

...so it looks as though we won more by accident than design/training/selection/strategy and TBH Bristol could and perhaps should have scored a couple early doors - we rode our luck a bit.

Maybe he'll stumble across a winning selection and plan every week but it's a big ask.

TBH I don't really want to even think about the possibility of survival for now - it's the hope that kills you etc and if we adopt that mindset chances are it will lead to disappointment, anger and reduced support for a team that is rebuilding and needs every bit of understanding we can give them. I'm just grateful we exist and for small mercies like this fantastic win.

 

[Mantra]

If anyone is feeling particularly bored and/or would like to speculate - https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-league-one/ - this website allows you to predict the remainder of the results for all teams in League 1 this season. Works on iPhone/iPad etc as well as on a PC. You might just have to wait a minute for it to load.

You have to manually input every score for each fixture, then you press "calculate." However, some fixtures haven't been completed yet from previous weeks, for example our game about Doncaster was in week 4 and was postponed, so if you click into "4" you need to input that score. Week 5 also has Portsmouth vs Rotherham which was also not played. etc..

Essentially just click into every number and make sure all the fixtures are filled in, then press calculate. You can calculate before filling everything in though, if you want to look at the table as you go along.

Also, the website isn't smart enough to start us on -12, so whatever you end up on, you'll need to deduct -12 points.

This was my very rough prediction during a quiet work day.

With the -12 taken off, it would see us onto 49 points in the season, which would have us finish a respectable 18th, 3 points above the drop zone.

Maybe it's just the Bristol result going to my head.

Our current record is 1 win, 4 draws and 7 losses.

This prediction puts us at, 16 wins, 13 draws and 15 losses.

So for us to only lose another 8 games all season is a big ask, one that I doubt we will answer.

Turning 4 draws into 13 doesn't seem to be too unreasonable, I think we will draw plenty more, but those wins are the key, 15 more to have any chance of survival.

Even if this is a totally ridiculous idea, it's nice to see on paper a way that we could stay up. Feel free to roast my table prediction and tell me how wrong it is!

I take no responsibility for getting anyone's hopes up.

Edited October 24, 2019 by Mantra

[MalcolmW]

We do have a very good run of league fixtures between now and |Christmas. If we win the next two league games both the team and the crowd will be buzzing.

[Okocha10]

Lincoln game at weekend is vital if we are to stand literally any chance of staying up all about gaining momentum & we need Daryl Murphy to keep on firing in the goals

[tomski]

I like the enthusiasm but we’ve still won 1 game in 7 months. Win a couple more and I’m on board

[radcliffe white]

The place is buzzing

but let’s chill and not get carried away 

there will be more points taken off us 

[Blondi]

Wonder what odds we are now to stay up?

[Piemon]

11/2

[Johnnyrotten]

4 hours ago, Hoppy510 said:

Technically not impossible but from this position - and with the potential of a further points deduction - it would require us to play like a top team every week and get something out of nearly every game. Having just got our first win I'm far from convinced we'll be able to do that every week.

Nor do we look like a settled side yet. As Hill said in his post match interview:

“It’s too difficult to explain the mechanics of that game, the way we arrived at this point with the players we’ve got missing,” he said after the game. “We played a system tonight with players who have barely been on the training pitch and credit to them."

...so it looks as though we won more by accident than design/training/selection/strategy and TBH Bristol could and perhaps should have scored a couple early doors - we rode our luck a bit.

Maybe he'll stumble across a winning selection and plan every week but it's a big ask.

TBH I don't really want to even think about the possibility of survival for now - it's the hope that kills you etc and if we adopt that mindset chances are it will lead to disappointment, anger and reduced support for a team that is rebuilding and needs every bit of understanding we can give them. I'm just grateful we exist and for small mercies like this fantastic win.

 

Me too.  I'm enjoying the free ride.  In years gone by, if we lost at home (especially when being ahead well into 2nd half) I have a cant be arsed attitude to the next away game, its a real downer.  No downer at all after Rochdale, I enjoyed the game and I was simply looking forward to Lincoln (almost forgot we were playing Bristol TBH).  The last thing I want is to feel the results are going to make a difference to my mindset.  I'm going to enjoy the development of the team this season and start "worrying" about results next season, when lets face it our football league future will be at stake if we get it wrong.  Just enjoy the ride, any win is fantastic and a defeat is a learning curve.

[RUREADY2ROLL]

The bookies are getting nervous now and we are only 6/4 to go down which will change massively if we win the next couple of games

I would say we have a chance but its best to just enjoy the ride until the EFL finally decide on any other punishments.

[Escobarp]

19 minutes ago, RUREADY2ROLL said:

The bookies are getting nervous now and we are only 6/4 to go down which will change massively if we win the next couple of games

I would say we have a chance but its best to just enjoy the ride until the EFL finally decide on any other punishments.

If we are 6/4 to go down we are only 1/2 to stay up?? Odds on to stay up? That’s not correct surely can’t be 

[enzo gambaro]

Skybet have us 11/2 to stay up. Betfair and Paddy Power know something we don’t because they have us at 4/6. It’s a shit market, though, and most firms aren’t playing.

Skybet are also best price about us going down - at 1/10. Most firms are 1/20 but Betfair and Paddy Power (same firm really) stick an extra zero on the end for the craic. So odds on to stay up but reeeeally odds on to go down.

This post is sponsored by Oddschecker.com.

[Escobarp]

14 minutes ago, enzo gambaro said:

Skybet have us 11/2 to stay up. Betfair and Paddy Power know something we don’t because they have us at 4/6. It’s a shit market, though, and most firms aren’t playing.

Skybet are also best price about us going down - at 1/10. Most firms are 1/20 but Betfair and Paddy Power (same firm really) stick an extra zero on the end for the craic. So odds on to stay up but reeeeally odds on to go down.

This post is sponsored by Oddschecker.com.

So Enzo do paddy’s have us at 11/10 to go down? 

If so could could be a few quid to be made across the bookies backing both outcomes at odds against with different providers?

[Big E]

3 hours ago, tomski said:

I like the enthusiasm but we’ve still won 1 game in 7 months. Win a couple more and I’m on board

Shhhhh Buzz Killington 

[tomski]

55 minutes ago, Big E said:

Shhhhh Buzz Killington 

Not at all. Not felt this positive for ages. I’ll see a few wins first before I think we’ll get promoted

[green genie]

Is there a time limit for EFL applying further points deductions?

[Casino]

Yeah

12 seasons.

they're making it up as they go

I remain convinced FV know what's coming

[HomerJay]

8 hours ago, tomski said:

I like the enthusiasm but we’ve still won 1 game in 7 months. Win a couple more and I’m on board

i'll counter that with the fact that the previous 7 months is totally irrelevant to our future results.

saying that. i still think its gonna be really, really close

Edited October 24, 2019 by HomerJay

[Krimzon]

will we stay up ? nope .

After thinking for so long that I would no longer have a club to support , I couldnt give a shit , plus if you look at the graph of our divisions we were fated to drop to the fourth before we got promoted again ......I think . 

[enzo gambaro]

13 hours ago, Escobarp said:

So Enzo do paddy’s have us at 11/10 to go down? 

If so could could be a few quid to be made across the bookies backing both outcomes at odds against with different providers?

1/200.

[bwfc2003]

9 hours ago, green genie said:

Is there a time limit for EFL applying further points deductions?

God knows - its ridiculous that we are now six months on from Brentford postponement and no bloody nearer anyone knowing whats happening

[SatanGreavsie]

11 hours ago, Casino said:

Yeah

12 seasons.

they're making it up as they go

I remain convinced FV know what's coming

Well at least that would be something, but it would be nice if we all knew as well. Because if things aren't a false dawn in terms of results then this thread does show an escape is not beyond the realms of possibility - but it really would be a kick in the cods if it gets scuppered just as it gets really going in a month or so. Indeed it's going to look fucking dubious if we get hit just as it looks like survival could be on the cards. Dubious in that either it looks like they've hit us to make sure we don't stay up or that they've strung it out to keep us competitive.

Mind you a lot looks dubious now - such as the FA Cup draw which had the camera angle from below, looking through the transparent bowl so that you could see the number they were fumbling for. As could the people doing the draw when they looked up at the monitors, as they clearly did. No wonder the headline grabbing story of Chichester getting a bye came out once they were down to the last few...

[RUREADY2ROLL]

Good results today and a run of three or four wins will put us on touching distance

[Steejay]

41 minutes ago, RUREADY2ROLL said:

Good results today and a run of three or four wins will put us on touching distance

Dream on mate x