Staying Up - what are the chances?

[birch-chorley]

7 hours ago, tkonion said:

I'm not sure how just chalking off the Doncaster match would work. If they're awarded three points wouldn't that be seen as unfair by other teams in the league who may potentially suffer as a result? Surely the match must be played, there's nearly seven months to do it in after all.

Who knows 

Flip side, what if Doncaster miss out on promotion by a point. Just can’t see it, should find out soon enough hopefully 

[Leyther_Matt]

I’m quietly confident we’ll get away with a slap on the wrist for the Donny game. After all, we were theoretically only following EFL guidelines. We’ll get hammered for the Brentford game though.

[birch-chorley]

But then again Brentford penalty should come off last seasons points 

how can they realistically just add the penalty to the following season 

they do with admin but that was after a precedent was set and it became a rule 

Donny is the one that causes them a big headache whichever way they decide to go with it, so for me that will be a sizeable penalty. They have probably been stalling hoping it wouldn’t matter but it could have implications to who goes up and down 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

Pity they can't just fine the CUNT with crabs and leave us alone.

[jmjhb]

Let's win 4 of the next 5 games first

[Leyther_Matt]

2 hours ago, birch-chorley said:

But then again Brentford penalty should come off last seasons points 

how can they realistically just add the penalty to the following season 

they do with admin but that was after a precedent was set and it became a rule 

Donny is the one that causes them a big headache whichever way they decide to go with it, so for me that will be a sizeable penalty. They have probably been stalling hoping it wouldn’t matter but it could have implications to who goes up and down 

There might be something in the amended rules that covered the admin deduction being carried over to the next season that means it applies to all offences after a certain date. Or I’m giving too much credit to the EFL to be smart enough to think of that.

My concern would be that if it was going to come off last season’s total then you’d have thought it would have been done and dusted months ago. My original thoughts at the time were that we’d get a suspended points deduction for Brentford that would then that would be triggered by Doncaster, but I think we’ve got a reasonable defence for Donny (plus it’ll get played anyway). 

[tomski]

Efl are flakey and inconsistent at best. You’d go mad thinking about the multiple scenarios they’d come up. Let’s just keep winning games and hope they keep quiet.

[DirtySanchez]

I bet they'll pull out all the stops so liverpool dont pull out of the league cup though 

[Guest]

If we do stay up, it might be our greatest achievement?

[radcliffe white]

If we stay up a statue of Keith in chinos and a cap should be put up 

[barrycowdrill]

Said for the past few weeks if we are there or thereabouts by Xmas they will punish us this season. If it appears we’re dead and buried they will give it us next season. The EFL will want the punishment and impact to continue. They won’t like a club having the book chucked at them and then overcoming it. 

surely though they cannot apply penalties across 2 different seasons within the same season? It’s taken them that long to decide what they’re doing about Brentford that any penalty should apply this. By that method any penalty for Doncaster should apply next.. 

[Johnnyrotten]

11 hours ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

If by Div 2 you mean League Two, then Crawford is certainly too good. As are Daryl Murphy, Lowe, Emmanuel and Matthews.

And no matter how he might feel, Verlinden still needs to prove himself at League One level yet.

I agree with all of that.  Crawford, Murphy, Lowe, Emmanuel all too good for Div 2 (I said outfield players deliberately to discount Matthews).  But Crawford's injury, unfortunately for him, has probably ruled out him getting a better offer than being a guaranteed pick for us next season; Murphy isnt going to be inundated with offers at his age in another 9 months; Emmanuel couldn't find a club and I hope he feels like he's part of the rebirth of the club, he's good but he's not outstanding at this level.  Lowe being a local lad and captain/guaranteed pick could well stay, unless he ends up at a Wigan or Blackpool if either are in Div 1.  Verlinden - I agree - quite disappointing if we're honest, but I dont see a player with his "promise" (like Politic) choosing a move to Div 2 at his age, whether or not he's proved himself in Div 1.

[blackleywhite]

Isn't verlinden a loan til January?

[Casino]

Aye and hes 100% going back, i reckon

Stokes new manager will want to check him out

[bwfc2003]

Its over 6 months since Brentford game got postponed - just dont see how the EFL can deduct points after such a delay

[MalcolmW]

4 minutes ago, bwfc2003 said:

Its over 6 months since Brentford game got postponed - just dont see how the EFL can deduct points after such a delay

I feel the EFL erred by allowing that game to not be played. If we are deducted 3 pts for forfeiting the fixture that needed to be applied almost immediately. As we were relegated anyway it simply moved us from 23rd to 24th, which is inconsequential. But just suppose that it dropped us from 21st or better to 22nd or worse. It needed to be applied before the fixtures were released, and in fact before the draft fixtures were proposed.

The Doncaster fixture may be penalised, essentially for unilaterally postponing the match. A 3 point penalty ensures we do not gain. There is no case for awarding points to Doncaster without the match being played. [It is unfortunate that they, in a similar dire financial strait a generation ago, were obliged to play makeshift teams for a full season.]

[Duck Egg]

2 hours ago, Casino said:

Aye and hes 100% going back, i reckon

Stokes new manager will want to check him out

I see that colossal centre back of Fleetwood's is on loan from Stoke too. That's two decent players theyll have for League 1 next season 

[Casino]

Looked a right stump

Hes at his level

[Biggish Dave]

He was all over Murphy all game. Looked a liability tbf

[peelyfeet]

A slightly autistic, successful professional football gambler, who I've had a few chats with, always says that form is a much bigger indicator than most folk regard, when placing bets.

The form of BWFC for the last 7 league matches, which goes back to 17th Sept, a couple of weeks after Keith took charge (which I think is a reasonable date to measure the current team from), is an average points tally per match of 1.285.

If this continues, we'll end up with 38 points. ( an avg of 1.285,  is mid table form, 12th - 14th)  

if we compare this with the current season so far form, of the 4 teams above us, the table would end up like this

Accrington  41

Bolton          38

Wimbledon 36

MKD             36

Southend    14

 

Obviously this is just pie in the sky and doesn't take the potential points deduction, new managers influence etc. into account, but I don't believe its' as big an ask as some may think, mainly because the teams above us have been particularly crap recently (Accy, MKD and Southend have 1 win between them for the last 15 league matches they've played collectively) 

The future points deduction is going to have a massive impact, I'm hoping that the FL delay is because they don't want the deduction to have an effect on us staying up/going down, if they can help it. 

 

[Traf]

I like stuff like that, but Southend will end up with more than 14.

[Casino]

12 minutes ago, Traf said:

I like stuff like that, but Southend will end up with more than 14.

Normally, I'd agree

But the words sol, andrew and chips on shoulders make me think, maybe not

[Traf]

Sol won't be in charge for the january window

[Mounts Kipper]

On 03/11/2019 at 13:48, Casino said:

Aye and hes 100% going back, i reckon

Stokes new manager will want to check him out

Rather have a fit Will Buckley myself. 

[burnden]

On 02/11/2019 at 21:58, Johnnyrotten said:

I heard from a long standing BW employee tonight that our points deduction is to be sorted on Thursday.  

From Bolton news today ... Thursday Cancelled.

An independent panel will decide Wanderers’ fate, the identity of which is also a great unknown. What has come to light is the panel was meant to meet this Thursday but a clash with a pre-existing EFL board meeting meant that another date had to be sought, as both parties need to be present.