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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

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11 hours ago, birch-chorley said:

Newsnight talking about the government planning for 4% of cases requiring hospitalisation

likely most of us will get it so that’s millions requiring some form of hospital treatment 

You cant cope with that in a short window 

 

Nobody knows what is going to happen yet, it's too early to tell, but the government have to prepare for the worst, and work for the best, so take all the figures you hear for the next few weeks including those below, with that in mind.

Chris Witty, the chief medical officer has advised "the proportion of the total population who might contract coronavirus would not pass 80% but it would probably be a “lot lower than that.

Some models suspect that it's more likely that up to 30% of the population could catch it this year, (seasonal flu is 5-20%) and this looks more realistic when using the diamond princess as an example of a concentrated population with high exposure over a relatively long period of time. Of the 3711 passengers and crew 20% ultimately tested positive, 1.5% classed as serious or resulted in death so far. 

South Korea, who have by far the truest figures so far, are currently reporting that around 2% of the confirmed infected become serious /critical cases /death.

However, the arguments for all the numbers above to be lower when extrapolating out to the total UK population are;

Outbreaks so far have been localised into geographic clusters.

S Korea will have missed asymptomatic/mild cases from their count. 

Early testing slows the spread and thankfully the NHS are onto this - we are testing 1,500 cases suspected cases per day at the moment, with plans for more (USA have done 500 in a month!)

If there is a big outbreak in the UK, improved hygiene, local isolation, quarantines, closing schools etc will all have an effect in slowing down the spread.

Warmer weather reduces the spread of other corona viruses, it's suspected that Covid-19 will be the same.

So - if you read/hear any figures, as above, they're all based on guesswork, as we don't have accurate analysis yet.

Wash your hands more, touch your face less, don't go to places where there's an outbreak if you can help it. 

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10 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

Nobody knows what is going to happen yet, it's too early to tell, but the government have to prepare for the worst, and work for the best, so take all the figures you hear for the next few weeks including those below, with that in mind.

Chris Witty, the chief medical officer has advised "the proportion of the total population who might contract coronavirus would not pass 80% but it would probably be a “lot lower than that.

Some models suspect that it's more likely that up to 30% of the population could catch it this year, (seasonal flu is 5-20%) and this looks more realistic when using the diamond princess as an example of a concentrated population with high exposure over a relatively long period of time. Of the 3711 passengers and crew 20% ultimately tested positive, 1.5% classed as serious or resulted in death so far. 

South Korea, who have by far the truest figures so far, are currently reporting that around 2% of the confirmed infected become serious /critical cases /death.

However, the arguments for all the numbers above to be lower when extrapolating out to the total UK population are;

Outbreaks so far have been localised into geographic clusters.

S Korea will have missed asymptomatic/mild cases from their count. 

Early testing slows the spread and thankfully the NHS are onto this - we are testing 1,500 cases suspected cases per day at the moment, with plans for more (USA have done 500 in a month!)

If there is a big outbreak in the UK, improved hygiene, local isolation, quarantines, closing schools etc will all have an effect in slowing down the spread.

Warmer weather reduces the spread of other corona viruses, it's suspected that Covid-19 will be the same.

So - if you read/hear any figures, as above, they're all based on guesswork, as we don't have accurate analysis yet.

Wash your hands more, touch your face less, don't go to places where there's an outbreak if you can help it. 

Initial reports suggested that isn't the case - it spreads just as easily in warm conditions....so say some of the scientists in China and I guess the spread in Iran might suggest that to be the case. 

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9 minutes ago, Spider said:

I love picking my nose, me.

I fear being prevented from doing so will lead to a build up of crusts so dense that I might suffocate.

Its a bastard this virus.

 

Ginger World problems

🧑‍🦰

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31 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Initial reports suggested that isn't the case - it spreads just as easily in warm conditions....so say some of the scientists in China and I guess the spread in Iran might suggest that to be the case. 

Its not necessarily the virus itself, more the behaviour of people. Virologist interviewed explained that in winter folk tend to stay indoors in more concentrated numbers which allows it to spread more readily.

Reverse in warm weather.

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2 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Its not necessarily the virus itself, more the behaviour of people. Virologist interviewed explained that in winter folk tend to stay indoors in more concentrated numbers which allows it to spread more readily.

Reverse in warm weather.

Yep. But flu for example also doesn't survive in the air so long in warmer weather - it drops to the ground quickly which vastly reduces infectiousness. 

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1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Its not necessarily the virus itself, more the behaviour of people. Virologist interviewed explained that in winter folk tend to stay indoors in more concentrated numbers which allows it to spread more readily.

Reverse in warm weather.

 

2 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Yep. But flu for example also doesn't survive in the air so long in warmer weather - it drops to the ground quickly which vastly reduces infectiousness. 

You're also less likely to touch a contaminated surface if your'e outside, and exposure to UV radiation from sunlight also helps to kills most viruses.

It's not very warm or sunny in Northern Iran, Northern Italy, South Korea or Wuhan in February compared to summer. I've not seen the reports from china re testing in warmer weather so don't know what it's based on.

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1 hour ago, Spider said:

I love picking my nose, me.

I fear being prevented from doing so will lead to a build up of crusts so dense that I might suffocate.

Its a bastard this virus.

 

Just douse your fingers in whisky before picking - then dig away

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1 hour ago, Spider said:

I love picking my nose, me.

I fear being prevented from doing so will lead to a build up of crusts so dense that I might suffocate.

Its a bastard this virus.

 

Cocaine will sort you out 

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13 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

 

You're also less likely to touch a contaminated surface if your'e outside, and exposure to UV radiation from sunlight also helps to kills most viruses.

It's not very warm or sunny in Northern Iran, Northern Italy, South Korea or Wuhan in February compared to summer. I've not seen the reports from china re testing in warmer weather so don't know what it's based on.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022467v1

This is what I was referring too. Its too early to be absolute of course. Just initial indication using the 44,000 sample - also used to calculate mortality etc...

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13 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Listening to talk sport before, a betting market had the Cheltenham Gold Cup a 50/50 chance at being cancelled. It’s likely to go ahead but you can see plenty other sporting events in Spring / Summer going 

 

Not sure what the logic would be - we're probably 18 months from a vaccine - and the thing is spreading. Are you going to shut down all or most international travel for 2 and a half years till a vaccine is available and deployed? It makes sense to slow spread down to let health systems cope - but the world isn't going to stop. 

The situation now whereby you're seeing small numbers in Europe by May will be totally different. 

Personally I don't see justification for stopping major tournaments - unless host countries are unable to hold them for logistical reasons. People are flying round the world still - and meeting and going to events...

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2 hours ago, bwfcfan5 said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022467v1

This is what I was referring too. Its too early to be absolute of course. Just initial indication using the 44,000 sample - also used to calculate mortality etc...

Interestingly, the comment on that also says in nations without implementation of proper healthcare arrangements.

According to Kent we're rated as one of if not the best in terms of preparedness; I'm fairly confident therefore that although we're likely to get a good number more, that by the warmer months we'll be well on top of this.

Anyway, the who just said this has a higher mortality than flu! Didn't catch it fully, but I'm sure it will be on the news later.

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1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Interestingly, the comment on that also says in nations without implementation of proper healthcare arrangements.

According to Kent we're rated as one of if not the best in terms of preparedness; I'm fairly confident therefore that although we're likely to get a good number more, that by the warmer months we'll be well on top of this.

Anyway, the who just said this has a higher mortality than flu! Didn't catch it fully, but I'm sure it will be on the news later.

Yep flu is sub 1% - but of course would be higher if we couldn't vaccinate....

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5 hours ago, gonzo said:

Could cause a recession this.   

absolutely

 

We've had customer calling us up today, and saying they aren't seeing any sales/reps for the foreseeable future, in order to minimise the risk. The worlds gone bonkers!!

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42 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Well yes, but we can't. Tends to suggest the initial concerns which had folk suggesting an over reaction were justified.

Let's see how many actually get out first. If 50% of the UK population got it, and 1% of them pegged it, that would still be upwards quarter of a million people. I don't think that'll happen, but we're still not in a position to make any assumptions yet.

as mentioned above, this could actually be more of an economic issue than a health one as we move forward.

Next month should be fun, as that's when the recent Chinese shutdown will start to filter through to us, especially when the bone idle and workshy  will already be skiving of work claiming they need to "self isolate" for a fortnight

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My mum is still in Bolton hospital.

They are asking every single person about their movements recently. (Not bowel).

The docs have now said they were concerned my mum had it earlier in the week. Which means they know it’s here.

wash yer hands and more importantly have a fucking beer.

Edited by Spider
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1 minute ago, Spider said:

My mum is still in Bolton hospital.

They are asking every single person about their movements recently. (Not bowel).

The docs have now said they were concerned my mum had it earlier in the week. Which means they know it’s here.

wash yer hands and more importantly have a fucking beer.

I tried the national anthem when washing my hands earlier. Kinell, seems an age when compared to normal- even when a good scrub is needed to remove soil.

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