Coronavirus

[radcliffe white]

3 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

And politics, and espionage.

Wealth of knowledge this place 

[Jol_BWFC]

4 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

And politics, and espionage.

But not cryptocurrency.

[radcliffe white]

2 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

My thoughts exactly. Looks like we are okay at the games once they resume, if one of us goes down, we are fucking saved 😷

Aye 

birch will have you believing nobody will live beyond June 

[kent_white]

8 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

Never realised until Coronavirus that wanderersways has so many experts in health & medicine 

Wanderersways is the home of the Dunning Kruger effect. You've just got to figure out where you are on the curve.

[Spider]

4 minutes ago, kent_white said:

Stopped swabbing yesterday. Drive through testing centre at Waters Meeting is stopping if it's not already stopped. We've moved past that point now. Testing is only really going to happen at or in hospital or if people have deteriorated rapidly.

There are so many variables (including how the public react) that it's very, very difficult to make an accurate projection - but from where I'm sitting - those numbers look at least plausible if not probable.

If we get things right - we save thousands of lives, potentially tens of thousands. But there's no real precedent for this in recent history.

Early summer heatwave in April could get rid of it altogether?

[Mounts Kipper]

33 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Do you think the virus is magically different here? The numbers are established across a number of populations. You seem to be of the view that because this hasn’t happened for over a generation it can’t now. But it is. Our strategy will hopefully minimise deaths. But given the herd immunity plan it means lots getting it and sadly lots dying.

From what I have read there are other factors that can reduce and slow down the infection rates dramatically such as washing of hands and self isolating and therefore subsequent serious issues and death will be much less than what we have witnessed elsewhere,  washing hands and self isolating did not happen in the early stages in China and Italy this exacerbated situation, we have hopefully learned from that. 
 

I found this tweet a very interesting watch and the exponential growth and influence of washing hands and self isolation on the actual number of cases is mind boggling, but at the same time fills me with confidence that we will have a much better outcome than China and Italy. 
 

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[Cheese]

Don't know what all the fuss is about. Just watch this, and you're sorted.

 

[kent_white]

Just now, Spider said:

Early summer heatwave in April could get rid of it altogether?

I don't think we know to be honest. I've read conflicting reports. Even if it does sod off in the summer the likelihood is that it will be back next winter anyway - and might have mutated. There's a good chance we'll be dealing with this year on year from here. We'll just develop treatments to help us cope. I hope.

[desperado]

10 minutes ago, kent_white said:

Stopped swabbing yesterday. Drive through testing centre at Waters Meeting is stopping if it's not already stopped. We've moved past that point now. Testing is only really going to happen at or in hospital or if people have deteriorated rapidly.

There are so many variables (including how the public react) that it's very, very difficult to make an accurate projection - but from where I'm sitting - those numbers look at least plausible if not probable.

If we get things right - we save thousands of lives, potentially tens of thousands. But there's no real precedent for this in recent history.

Cheers KW - a man in the know it seems.

So am I right in thinking the statistics we see published are questionable as we won’t really know how many have now got the virus? 

[bwfcfan5]

8 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

From what I have read there are other factors that can reduce and slow down the infection rates dramatically such as washing of hands and self isolating and therefore subsequent serious issues and death will be much less than what we have witnessed elsewhere,  washing hands and self isolating did not happen in the early stages in China and Italy this exasperated the situation, we have hopefully learned from that. 
 

I found this tweet a very interesting watch and the exponential growth and influence of washing hands and self isolation on the actual number of cases is mind boggling, but at the same time fills me with confidence that we will have a much better outcome than China and Italy. 
 

 

Our CSA and CMO say they are confident in the 1% mortality rate. And that is based on our health system. Frankly 1% would be lucky. Many novel diseases that lacked this infectiousness were far higher. SARS for example was 8% and was one protein away from being as impossible to stop as this is.

[bwfcfan5]

4 minutes ago, desperado said:

Cheers KW - a man in the know it seems.

So am I right in thinking the statistics we see published are questionable as we won’t really know how many have now got the virus? 

The stats are based on tests which are a small sample. But the CMO said estimate now was up to 10,000 cases in UK.

Edited March 14, 2020 by bwfcfan5

[Rudy]

10 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

He just wants to be the New Rick Grimes

I’d have you down as a Carol. 

[Mounts Kipper]

7 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Our CSA and CMO say they are confident in the 1% mortality rate. And that is based on our health system. Frankly 1% would be lucky. Many novel diseases that lacked this infectiousness were far higher. SARS for example was 8% and was one protein away from being as impossible to stop as this is.

I’ll guess the mortality rate will be lower than 1% and I’ll guess the infection rate will be lower than China and Italy, the CMO has to put our worse case scenario it’s same as the government predictions for worse case scenario brexit.  I’ll choose to ignore it and the same with the doom mongers. 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[Escobarp]

It’s just a cold don’t you know 

[Rudy]

I can just sense our Maude plotting to use my newly acquired free time.
Sat up in her ivory tower, cackling mumbling, whispering words like  ‘garden centre’ ‘Trafford centre’ ‘IKEA’ 

Send help. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Escobarp said:

It’s just a cold don’t you know 

Bumped into a retired GP last night and was flabbergasted as the panic, as he thinks it’s nothing worse than flu.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Rudy’s Message said:

I can just sense our Maude plotting to use my newly acquired free time.
Sat up in her ivory tower, cackling mumbling, whispering words like  ‘garden centre’ ‘Trafford centre’ ‘IKEA’ 

Send help. 

Convince her that she needs to self-isolate

[kent_white]

1 minute ago, desperado said:

Cheers KW - a man in the know it seems.

So am I right in thinking the statistics we see published are questionable as we won’t really know how many have now got the virus? 

Yeah I think we are treating all the official statistics with a grain of salt. The real infection rates are likely to be 5 to 10 times what we've recorded through testing. 

I wouldn't claim to be in the know though. I've got a bit more insight because of my job but I think anybody talking with complete certainty at the moment needs to be viewed with some scepticism.

[bwfcfan5]

5 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I’ll guess the mortality rate will be lower than 1% and I’ll guess the infection rate will be lower than China and Italy, the CMO has to put our worse case scenario it’s same as the government predictions for worse case scenario brexit.  I’ll choose to ignore it and the same with the doom mongers. 

I think it’s reasonable it may be a little lower than 1%. They even said perhaps slightly lower. But they want herd immunity that means they want infection rates at 40% plus. So I think you will find that this will spread everywhere eventually. I hope it fizzles out though. Perhaps in summer infections will slow a long way. Let’s hope.

[Escobarp]

1 minute ago, kent_white said:

Yeah I think we are treating all the official statistics with a grain of salt. The real infection rates are likely to be 5 to 10 times what we've recorded through testing. 

I wouldn't claim to be in the know though. I've got a bit more insight because of my job but I think anybody talking with complete certainty at the moment needs to be viewed with some scepticism.

So Kent you are saying Fanny5 doesn’t hold all the answers as portrayed and should be treated with scepticism?

[Mounts Kipper]

Just now, bwfcfan5 said:

I think it’s reasonable it may be a little lower than 1%. They even said perhaps slightly lower. But they want herd immunity that means they want infection rates at 40% plus. So I think you will find that this will spread everywhere eventually. I hope it fizzles out though. Perhaps in summer infections will slow a long way. Let’s hope.

Let’s hope it all turns out to be over the top, sadly deaths are inevitable and as someone with a frail 88 year old Dad I’m concerned for him and the old so I hope it goes away as quickly as it has come.

FWIW I’ve confidence in the NHS and that because of the fantastic people within the NHS the outcome will be the very best it can be. 

[kent_white]

1 minute ago, Escobarp said:

So Kent you are saying Fanny5 doesn’t hold all the answers as portrayed and should be treated with scepticism?

If he's saying he knows for sure then yes. But to be fair - most of the numbers he's been coming out with are reasonable. 

The thing could start to burn itself out tomorrow - but it's unlikely. It's the uncertainty that's the scariest thing about it for me. 

[kent_white]

3 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Let’s hope it all turns out to be over the top, sadly deaths are inevitable and as someone with a frail 88 year old Dad I’m concerned for him and the old so I hope it goes away as quickly as it has come.

I'm in a similar situation Mounts. I've a Mrs who's immunocompromised and a Dad in his 60's with stage 4 COPD. Either of them could really do without it. 

Is your Dad still looking after himself or does he have help?

[1969]

Lad at work as now gone into self isolation because his mrs came home with a cough and high temperature.I dont know if to believe him or not as he's abit of a drama queen but better to be safe than sorry I suppose 

[peelyfeet]

17 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

I think it’s reasonable it may be a little lower than 1%. They even said perhaps slightly lower. But they want herd immunity that means they want infection rates at 40% plus. So I think you will find that this will spread everywhere eventually. I hope it fizzles out though. Perhaps in summer infections will slow a long way. Let’s hope.

The wanderers way herd is 4,400 registered users - I'd estimate that our average age is early 50's, some older some younger,  so assuming  mortality rates around 2%. If 80% of us get infected that's 70 deaths - who's up for herd immunity??