Members Rudy Posted March 24, 2020 Author Members Share Posted March 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said: House sale collapsed fucked off ain’t the word Why not invest the money into my Shed D’Lostock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Casino Posted March 24, 2020 Moderators Share Posted March 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, boltondiver said: It's crystal clear; even to the likes of you Tell you what, have a word with your precious Tories The guidance is crystal clear, but obviously not to you 4 reasons to leave the house Number 4 To travel to work where the work absolutely can not be done from home No mention of essential None whatsoever Its so clear a clever bloke like you can't understand it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Rudy Posted March 24, 2020 Author Members Share Posted March 24, 2020 743 dead in 24 hours in Italy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Casino Posted March 24, 2020 Moderators Share Posted March 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, boltondiver said: Unless it's essential See above Bollocks, pardon my french Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radcliffe white Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said: Why not invest the money into my Shed D’Lostock The mood I’m in I’d drink your fucking shed dry😀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted March 24, 2020 Moderators Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 hour ago, peelyfeet said: We're growing slightly faster than they did, our patterns are very similar, there's nothing in the numbers yet that shows we are going to be much different, death numbers doubling every 2-3 days at the moment. 11 days after 10 deaths Italy 233 UK 422 and about a day behind them since the 1st death Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted March 24, 2020 Moderators Share Posted March 24, 2020 37 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: To be fair to peely if we see 160 plus tomorrow he’s not far off right, let’s hope deaths don’t double every day from here on in. Italy went from 100 to 1000 in 8 days then to 3500 in the next 6 our numbers seem to be ramping up, and there's nothing to suggest they are being curbed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boothy Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 hour ago, jeep said: Hi mate, thanks for all the info you've been putting on here. Its been really helpful. Just a question, why are you going from 10 deaths rather than the first? Apologies if you've already explained this. Cheers Because statistics can be used to tell any story you want it to Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Casino Posted March 24, 2020 Moderators Share Posted March 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, Casino said: See above Bollocks, pardon my french Anyway, we have customers who don't seem to have heard of COVID So, we are going to finish as much of the work we had promised for this week despite about a 3rd of mine being out of action Unless bozo shuts us down, we are in until Friday, afternoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted March 24, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted March 24, 2020 35 minutes ago, ErnestTurnip said: Wren Kitchens, looking around seems they've been up to all sorts with people who work in loads of different roles for them. They're notorious for shit after sales service. Been on one of these consumer programs on the telly. Set of cunts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mounts Kipper said: You posted last week you expected 641 deaths by today, 166 in the last 24 hours. It’s looking like your way out. You're reading the numbers incorrectly to see if the overall pattern will change or not - the % increases go up and down on a daily basis, there are peaks and troughs, it's called variance. Today we've had a +26% growth rate, we had +21% yesterday, +37% 6 days ago. We've had 3 peaks and 4 plateaus in the last 7 days. We may get peaks or plateaus in the next 3 days, overall pattern however, is still growth, we need drops. My model was based on a +35% daily growth rate against the total figure, extrapolated out. Hopefully it will be lower. If you're out by a small % on any one day it can initially make a big difference in the daily numbers, but not such a big impact if the overall pattern continues, the final figure will be the similar when the peak plateaus out. For example, Italy passed 10 deaths 29 days ago - if the growth rate was out by 2 days (either way) over that 29 day period the amount of total deaths would be out by 1,345 today, a massive amount because they haven't plateaued out - but doesn't sound as much if on the 25th Feb you said "the total deaths will pass 6,000 between 22nd-24th March" If however the Italian numbers were measured at the end of the end of the epidemic, you could be a week out, but only a few deaths out, when the daily rates drops to single figures. The important thing is to flatten the curve at the right time so that the daily % increase isn't high at a stage when we've already got full hospitals. We are still high, we have been for 11 days and it's not showing evidence of slowing yet. Feel free to come back and chastise me if the figures are wrong - I hope you do, honestly. Edited March 24, 2020 by peelyfeet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: You're reading the numbers incorrectly to see if the overall pattern will change or not - the % increases go up and down on a daily basis, there are peaks and troughs, it's called variance. Today we've had a +26% growth rate, we had +21% yesterday, +37% 6 days ago. We've had 3 peaks and 4 plateaus in the last 7 days. We may get peaks or plateaus in the next 3 days, overall pattern however, is still growth, we need drops. My model was based on a +35% daily growth rate against the total figure, extrapolated out. Hopefully it will be lower. If you're out by a small % on any one day it can initially make a big difference in the daily numbers, but not such a big impact if the overall pattern continues, the final figure will be the similar when the peak plateaus out. For example, Italy passed 10 deaths 29 days ago - if the growth rate was out by 2 days (either way) over that 29 day period the amount of total deaths would be out by 1,345 today, a massive amount because they haven't plateaued out - but doesn't sound as much if on the 25th Feb you said "the total deaths will pass 6,000 between 22nd-24th March" If however the Italian numbers were measured at the end of the end of the epidemic, you could be a week out, but only a few deaths out, when the daily rates drops to single figures. The important thing is to flatten the curve at the right time so that the daily % increase isn't high at a stage when we've already got full hospitals. We are still high, we have been for 11 days and it's not showing evidence of slowing yet. Feel free to come back and chastise me if the figures are wrong - I hope you do, honestly. Thanks for explaining. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kent_white Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Well they did say they were going to find 50,000 new nurses! It's a bit of an extreme way to get them though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, kent_white said: Well they did say they were going to find 50,000 new nurses! It's a bit of an extreme way to get them though! How do I volunteer locally to deliver these food and aid parcels to the vulnerable?? Any idea kent? I’ve looked on nhs scotland but can’t find anything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morizio Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 A touching story of proper humanism. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52015969 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L/H White Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 very weird day, I can't go near the motorway to and from work usually, to and from work on it in less than 20 minutes today just been to my local shop, only letting 3 in at a time, markers on the floor to keep 2 metres apart, girl behind the counter in mask and gloves nothing on the roads, car parks empty very weird feel to it all, and it's not going to get any better any time soon lead to believe a hotel is opening up Mcr very soon for non critical patients Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MancWanderer Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Bloke who works for me up in Scotland does Saturday night shifts in A&E every now and again to keep his nursing PIN up to date and active. Just been put on standby for tomorrow then doing 13 hour shifts for the next four days. He’s a tad worried about it but happily stepped up. The company that I work for have been ace. Not expecting him to use up holidays, keeping him on full pay and sorting a load of legal stuff out (beyond me!!) that allows it all to happen as and when. There are some really decent folk out there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kent_white Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Escobarp said: How do I volunteer locally to deliver these food and aid parcels to the vulnerable?? Any idea kent? I’ve looked on nhs scotland but can’t find anything I'm not sure. But if I hear anything about it I'll let you know. I imagine each local authority will have their own plan rather than it being done centrally. Great work though - this is what we need!!!!! 👍👍👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kent_white Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, MancWanderer said: Bloke who works for me up in Scotland does Saturday night shifts in A&E every now and again to keep his nursing PIN up to date and active. Just been put on standby for tomorrow then doing 13 hour shifts for the next four days. He’s a tad worried about it but happily stepped up. The company that I work for have been ace. Not expecting him to use up holidays, keeping him on full pay and sorting a load of legal stuff out (beyond me!!) that allows it all to happen as and when. There are some really decent folk out there And so is this 👍👍👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blondi Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 If anyone would like to volunteer. https://www.goodsamapp.org/NHS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted March 24, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted March 24, 2020 Daughter came in from work (MaccyD's) last night with all the perishables. We took them this morning to a foodbank at School Hill; buns, milk, eggs, fruit bags, carrot sticks, etc. These folk are desperate for food, women's sanitary products and cleaning products. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted March 24, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted March 24, 2020 26 minutes ago, kent_white said: I'm not sure. But if I hear anything about it I'll let you know. I imagine each local authority will have their own plan rather than it being done centrally. Great work though - this is what we need!!!!! 👍👍👍 Wife's lot issued a stay at home edict immediately after Boris' address. She's been preparing response teams all day ready for secondment over to the assistance effort. From what I understand they stay at home until called out- keeping them well until needed. A number of them are already isolating or in the high risk category so have to stay in for 12 weeks, so it's imperative to keep healthy ones free from the illness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted March 24, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted March 24, 2020 (edited) I sense that this time next week the numbers will be extremely sobering. Theres no way the government would go to these extraordinary lengths if they weren’t fairly certain the shits about to hit the fan. Im honestly shitting it Edited March 24, 2020 by Spider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Blondi said: If anyone would like to volunteer. https://www.goodsamapp.org/NHS 👍👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L/H White Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Spider said: I sense that this time next week the numbers will be extremely sobering. Theres no way the government would go to these extraordinary lengths if they weren’t fairly certain the shits about to hit the fan. Im honestly shitting it You'd have followed through if you'd have seen the red wine shelf in my local shop, empty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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