Guest Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, boltondiver said: I wonder if the Government has a prediction of when we might peak and at how many deaths/day? Trump, for all faults, answered this last night, I think. Disappointed yesterday when one of them said that infection number was down, or similar, when we know that numbers are way off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Rudy Posted April 1, 2020 Author Members Share Posted April 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, boltondiver said: I wonder if the Government has a prediction of when we might peak and at how many deaths/day? Trump, for all faults, answered this last night, I think. He also hoped to have America back open for Easter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Alf Hartigan Posted April 1, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted April 1, 2020 38 minutes ago, boltondiver said: I wonder if the Government has a prediction of when we might peak and at how many deaths/day? Trump, for all faults, answered this last night, I think. Haven't they made it clear that they can't predict this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted April 1, 2020 Moderators Share Posted April 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, Alf Hartigan said: Haven't they made it clear that they can't predict this? More a warning than a prediction https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/donald-trump-coronavirus-briefing-painful-us-deaths Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevieb Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 Just now, ZicoKelly said: More a warning than a prediction https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/donald-trump-coronavirus-briefing-painful-us-deaths We also had similar warning 2 weeks ago. Every country is more or less following the same measures just at different points of the journey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 1, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted April 1, 2020 9 hours ago, Mr Grey said: Never been a stargazer, spent to much time being a fanny rat 😁 Took the dog up to the lodge the other evening. Silhouetted against the night sky was a bloke. As we gradually got closer it became apparent that he was "too big" and then not alone. They then heard us and quickly stopped their "activity" and yanked up their keks then pissed off! Seems you can do both! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Nordkurve Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 14 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said: They've explained it perfectly well. Might not be happy with it, no one is, but if they are struggling to get hold of materials what do you propose? The answer is clear. Journalists and people alike might not like what they hear, but repeatedly asking the same question over and over isn't going to get a different answer. As has been said before, wait until later investigations uncover the reality of the situation. They haven't explained it perfectly well. They just lied. Everything Gove said was shot down by the Chemical companies AND the Test suppliers. So we wait until more people died than needed before calling them out. Fucking joke. Maybe you will have a different view if someone you love dies because the Government didn't want to buy more Tests or more Chemicals or Ventilators from a Medical Ventilator company ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 1 hour ago, boltondiver said: I wonder if the Government has a prediction of when we might peak and at how many deaths/day? Trump, for all faults, answered this last night, I think. You can't predict it. I will give our government credit here - they've been honest and open about it all the way through. I think this is where they've done best. The problem is that if you left things alone you can use R0 and incubation period to work out the likely peak. But because we're taking measures that nobody fully understands how well they will work - the peak isn't really a peak. Its effectively a mini peak that you've curtailed artificially. So even when you've got through it - you're still not in a position where a proper peak has occurred - that proper peak bringing reassurance that the pressure is over. Because likelihood is that 95% of your population still hasn't had it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Nordkurve said: They haven't explained it perfectly well. They just lied. Everything Gove said was shot down by the Chemical companies AND the Test suppliers. So we wait until more people died than needed before calling them out. Fucking joke. Maybe you will have a different view if someone you love dies because the Government didn't want to buy more Tests or more Chemicals or Ventilators from a Medical Ventilator company ? This. Edited April 1, 2020 by bwfcfan5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Nordkurve Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 Just now, bwfcfan5 said: This tweet sums up my view on people who try to argue the way of the post you're replying to... https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1245246477028425729?s=20 Twitter is blocked at work so I can't read that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 1, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted April 1, 2020 11 hours ago, Marc505 said: We noticed that too but not sure what it is. Could be our alien overlords watching over us. ISS looks like a bright star but it moves like a fast plane. Those SpaceX fleet satellites are becoming visible at night too now, there's a site you can track them on to see where to look. They come over in lines of 30, 40, 50 in a row some nights, it's meant to look pretty impressive/worrying depending on your views on filling space with metal objects. We saw a couple of dots, travelling in an apparently parallel path from west to east. Once they got roughly south of our position they faxed out of vision quickly. Strangely, they were followed a few seconds after by another pair, similar path and both going out of view in a similar place. Never witnessed anything like it before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 1, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted April 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, Nordkurve said: They haven't explained it perfectly well. They just lied. Everything Gove said was shot down by the Chemical companies AND the Test suppliers. So we wait until more people died than needed before calling them out. Fucking joke. Maybe you will have a different view if someone you love dies because the Government didn't want to buy more Tests or more Chemicals or Ventilators from a Medical Ventilator company ? Not on the reports I've seen. Indeed it has just been confirmed this morning that medical experts are in agreement that certain reagents are in short supply. One example of innovation being a lab managing to source some of the necessary material from a nearby veterinary surgery. Your assertion that the government doesn't want to buy stuff is frankly fucking crackpot. Slightest bit of scrutiny shows that to be utter drivel. Perhaps you should get a room with the other sinister crank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowack Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 I think he is alluding to the Preston report that the agents are freely available. https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-31/robert-peston-is-gove-right-that-there-is-a-shortage-of-test-kit-ingredients/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burndens Bogs Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 I saw the worst April fools ever earlier, some fella who's part of a large lads Whatsapp group got his wife to post on there that he'd collapsed at home with breathing difficulties and was on a ventilator in Salford Royal. 30 minutes later, a photo of him at work with the message - APRIL FOOLS! Deary fucking me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tombwfc Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 Being defensive of everything the government do is just as bad as someone slating them at every turn. It's been 20 days since the government talked of ramping up to 10,000, and we're barely hitting that, let alone the other numbers (25k, 50k) that they've thrown about. It's certainly worthy of comment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L/H White Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted April 1, 2020 Moderators Share Posted April 1, 2020 healthy 13 year old boy dies in London https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52114476 healthy 19 year old dies in London, could've been avoided https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52115265 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 33 minutes ago, Tombwfc said: Being defensive of everything the government do is just as bad as someone slating them at every turn. It's been 20 days since the government talked of ramping up to 10,000, and we're barely hitting that, let alone the other numbers (25k, 50k) that they've thrown about. It's certainly worthy of comment. Andrew Neil that well known Corbyn supporting Commie bastard...oh.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 34 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: You can't predict it. I will give our government credit here - they've been honest and open about it all the way through. I think this is where they've done best. The problem is that if you left things alone you can use R0 and incubation period to work out the likely peak. But because we're taking measures that nobody fully understands how well they will work - the peak isn't really a peak. Its effectively a mini peak that you've curtailed artificially. So even when you've got through it - you're still not in a position where a proper peak has occurred - that proper peak bringing reassurance that the pressure is over. Because likelihood is that 95% of your population still hasn't had it. agreed. A crude way of reckoning how many of the population have had the infection will be to multiply the dead total a couple of weeks after the mini peak has finished, by whatever they think the most accurate CFR is at that stage - I believe they still think it will be about 0.8%, so if that's the case multiply by 125 - at the moment this sum says 2-3 weeks ago there was 223K infected. To work out how many are infected today requires a lot of guesswork, so the sums below could be way off. Assuming that 0.8% CFR is accurate, assuming we aren't at the pinnacle of our peak yet, assuming that we continue to grow slower than Italy, Spain and US, and assuming that we don't reach the highs of 1k deaths per day, a moderate guess would be another 10k deaths in the next 2-3 weeks - which works out at around 1.5 million infected today, or 2.25%, so we are way off herd immmunity. It's going to be interesting to see what happens when the western countries finish their mini peaks. At the moment, we are behind Italy and Spain, France and US, so we have a head start, and have the benefit of hindsight to help us make decisions. However it's going to be Russian roulette for whichever western country/area decides to relax their constraints first after the mini peak, they will in effect be a test case for everyone else. Countries with a more robust economy will be able to delay the relaxation for longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Nordkurve Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Tonge moor green jacket said: Not on the reports I've seen. Indeed it has just been confirmed this morning that medical experts are in agreement that certain reagents are in short supply. One example of innovation being a lab managing to source some of the necessary material from a nearby veterinary surgery. Your assertion that the government doesn't want to buy stuff is frankly fucking crackpot. Slightest bit of scrutiny shows that to be utter drivel. Perhaps you should get a room with the other sinister crank. So how come the CEO of the Northern Ireland Company that manufactures Medical Ventilators stated on Newsnight (not to the Daily Mail or Karen on Facebook) that when the Government had sent a fucking Tweet asking Companies to Manufacture Ventilators, that they had not received any orders from the Government ? Every one is entitled to their opinion. I base mine on Tweets and Statements from the CEOs of the very Companies that are saying the Government lied about that stuff. By the Way, short supply is not the same as not available, and the CEO stated that they have zero problem in getting as much as is required. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted April 1, 2020 Moderators Share Posted April 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, Mr Grey said: Sad, but more may come out regarding other health conditions. it may well do, in the mean time, will hopefully serve as a reminder it can get anyone, so back the fuck off when I'm out walking the dog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Mr Grey said: Neil's reporting is fair, and he always has the facts. To many people are playing the anti-tory card now, its lies, the nasty party its all their fault etc. It didn't do them any good in the recent GE, so they need to reign it in. We know there are problems, especially around testing, but every country around the world has been caught on the hop with CV, thats why its important to all pull together and fuck the petty points scoring, i personally think they are doing a very good job, not excellent, but in the circumstances they are doing a very good job. Very well put 👏🏼 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter HomerJay Posted April 1, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted April 1, 2020 2 hours ago, boltondiver said: Disappointed yesterday when one of them said that infection number was down, or similar, when we know that numbers are way off. showing these numbers to general fuckwits is a dangerous game. eventually they think risk has gone, take more risks, and off we go again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 14 minutes ago, Mr Grey said: Neil's reporting is fair, and he always has the facts. To many people are playing the anti-tory card now, its lies, the nasty party its all their fault etc. It didn't do them any good in the recent GE, so they need to reign it in. We know there are problems, especially around testing, but every country around the world has been caught on the hop with CV, thats why its important to all pull together and fuck the petty points scoring, i personally think they are doing a very good job, not excellent, but in the circumstances they are doing a very good job. This isn’t about politics. It’s about answers to simple questions. How come Germany are better prepared? Why haven’t we got the testing capacity they have? They dodge the answer for ages then come up with something about chemicals to which those producing said chemicals claim they’ve never been asked by the government for greater production. They're honest about the scale of the virus and the inability to predict. But they need to give simple and honest answers to all questions. Otherwise they are the ones playing politics. This is about protecting NHS staff some of whom have already died. If they can’t be honest about that what’s the point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birch-chorley Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 56 minutes ago, Nordkurve said: So how come the CEO of the Northern Ireland Company that manufactures Medical Ventilators stated on Newsnight (not to the Daily Mail or Karen on Facebook) that when the Government had sent a fucking Tweet asking Companies to Manufacture Ventilators, that they had not received any orders from the Government ? Every one is entitled to their opinion. I base mine on Tweets and Statements from the CEOs of the very Companies that are saying the Government lied about that stuff. By the Way, short supply is not the same as not available, and the CEO stated that they have zero problem in getting as much as is required. Clearly something not right here then Why would they go on TV begging all sorts of companies to turn to making ventilators if we had a specialist with spare capacity that was going unused It doesn’t sound like a conscious decision Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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