Guest Nordkurve Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Just now, bwfcfan5 said: So we've ordered millions of antibody tests that the government have now said don't work... https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-has-millions-of-coronavirus-antibody-tests-but-they-don-t-work-j7kb55g89 Brill! Ace! Super! To be honest, I would rather they waste money on at least trying, than do nothing at all. Still pissed about the Ventilators though. that is really fucking annoying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Nordkurve said: To be honest, I would rather they waste money on at least trying, than do nothing at all. Still pissed about the Ventilators though. that is really fucking annoying. There were students who explained why the specificity of the tests were not good enough weeks ago - I'm all for trying but lets at least listen to those in China who've already gone through this....Antibody tests will be useful when more people have had the virus. But I can't see them being the way out of lockdown in the immediate months. I suspect that we need to stay in lockdown until either enough normal tests are carried out to determine ongoing spread over a significant period or a vaccine can be deployed. Edited April 6, 2020 by bwfcfan5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: There were students who explained why the specificity of the tests were not good enough weeks ago - I'm all for trying but lets at least listen to those in China who've already gone through this....Antibody tests will be useful when more people have had the virus. But I can't see them being the way out of lockdown in the immediate months. I suspect that we need to stay in lockdown until either enough normal tests are carried out to determine ongoing spread over a significant period or a vaccine can be deployed. I reckon we’ll be out of lockdown sooner than many currently are expecting. I think the government might find ways of releasing some of the restrictions, in the knowledge that this can’t end until we have a cure or a vaccine. I expect a trade off between trusting the population to socially distance and getting back to work. To some extent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 minute ago, boltondiver said: I reckon we’ll be out of lockdown sooner than many currently are expecting. I think the government might find ways of releasing some of the restrictions, in the knowledge that this can’t end until we have a cure or a vaccine. I expect a trade off between trusting the population to socially distance and getting back to work. To some extent. The priority over the next few months and longer is saving lives. Once people start packing into public transport again you will simply see a repeat of a peak. It’s pointless doing all this only to regress. Release restrictions only to see another spike in ICU cases doesn’t seem good to me. I suspect some of the most stringent ones like visiting family will be relaxed for short periods but I cannot see back to normal and if it does happen then within a month we will be back here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted April 6, 2020 Moderators Share Posted April 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: It’s quite interesting that the hot spots are as Miami pointed out in a tweet he read weeks ago, Madrid, London, New York, Paris, Milan, something to do with the fashion workers from China returning to these centres after Chinese New Year. And Germany not had it so bad, is there a high fashion hub in Germany? I think it would go way beyond fashion - there's 50k people live in Chinatown in NYC for example they are just big, international cities with diverse populations and there is loads going on in Wuhan https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-business-hub-2020-1?r=US&IR=T Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: The priority over the next few months and longer is saving lives. Once people start packing into public transport again you will simply see a repeat of a peak. It’s pointless doing all this only to regress. Release restrictions only to see another spike in ICU cases doesn’t seem good to me. I suspect some of the most stringent ones like visiting family will be relaxed for short periods but I cannot see back to normal and if it does happen then within a month we will be back here. We’ll see; of course I get all that, but bear in mind, the strategy is to be able to manage numbers through the NHS, not necessarily saving lives in the short term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, boltondiver said: We’ll see; of course I get all that, but bear in mind, the strategy is to be able to manage numbers through the NHS, not necessarily saving lives in the short term. Making it manageable to the NHS is saving lives because whilst many will die and there is nowt you can do, you can keep some alive - if demand increases then some who could be saved will not be. If this is correct (and I have severe doubts) we may be out much quicker. But I find this very suspicious. https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 16 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said: I think it would go way beyond fashion - there's 50k people live in Chinatown in NYC for example they are just big, international cities with diverse populations and there is loads going on in Wuhan https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-business-hub-2020-1?r=US&IR=T It’s absolutely rammed with kitchen sink students and the like here so I’m surprised it’s not manifested itself more prevalently here upto now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 6, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted April 6, 2020 38 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: So we've ordered millions of antibody tests that the government have now said don't work... https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-has-millions-of-coronavirus-antibody-tests-but-they-don-t-work-j7kb55g89 Brill! Ace! Super! Have you read the article? Did you listen to Matt Hancock a few days ago? We 'ordered' the kits but only if they work. The ones paid for are the ones evaluated. Well done our government for trying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Just now, Tonge moor green jacket said: Have you read the article? Did you listen to Matt Hancock a few days ago? We 'ordered' the kits but only if they work. The ones paid for are the ones evaluated. Well done our government for trying. And folk are getting their knickers in a twist defending this bell end. Mind boggling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 6, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Escobarp said: And folk are getting their knickers in a twist defending this bell end. Mind boggling Wouldn't mind, but it's clear in the second paragraph. "Britain no longer looking to buy kits off the shelf". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radcliffe white Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Coronavirus birthday for the lad today he’s gutted family can’t come around plus note he got a lovely birthday message from politic thanks to a top geezer off here priceless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, Escobarp said: And folk are getting their knickers in a twist defending this bell end. Mind boggling It’s not a political point, though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 The issue is not about money but the fact that there was evidence in the literature for weeks saying these tests were not specific enough. I'm told South Korea have the best one but its unlikely to be good enough to accurately test wide sectors of the population until the disease is more common. We're trying to develop our own but as I said the issue is false positives - not sure how you manage that one. We really do need a good study on numbers of asymptomatic patients - I expected something from China by now with a larger sample size than a hundred odd. That is desperately needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Casino Posted April 6, 2020 Moderators Share Posted April 6, 2020 Just jumping back a few pages, i can confirm whoever told blondie that fairfield were looking at dnar for over 50s was incorrect As a rule of thumb, its 70, but thats all it us A generalisation But a fit 75 year old may not go dnr, while a very sick 10 year old with all sorts of other issues almost certainly would Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, Mr Grey said: That makes a change 🤨 You’ve got him all wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Mr Grey said: Love your sarcasm 😁 Seriously though, he just needs to let people have an opinion on things. It’s the fact it’s always everyone else is always wrong. But it is what it is pal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DazBob Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Just caught up on here. @Spider, so sorry to hear of your loss, truly heartbreaking. Just glad for you both that you got her out of that home and were able to spend the time together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tombwfc Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 I'll preface this by saying 'what the fuck do I know?' but... If the idea that a large number of the country has or has had it, surely that'd reflect in a higher % of positive tests? The average across the 10 countries that have done the most testing is 14% positive, and generally the people being tested are highly symptomatic and pretty ill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Tombwfc said: I'll preface this by saying 'what the fuck do I know?' but... If the idea that a large number of the country has or has had it, surely that'd reflect in a higher % of positive tests? The average across the 10 countries that have done the most testing is 14% positive, and generally the people being tested are highly symptomatic and pretty ill. Ideally yes, but we haven't been testing those who've had it mildly or asymptomatic, so we haven't got that data. What will likely happen is the countries who are testing more will give us a truer idea of the real Case Fatality rate - which at the moment looks like it going to be about 0.8% (higher if you get a rush of patients at the same time, and possibly lower if you manage the rush) Veneto region in Italy is supposed to be testing 20K a day, they have a population of 4million, and have been one of the worst hit areas in Italy, so we should get some good stats from them, and this will enable us to work back a more accurate estimate of how many have been infected based on the extrapolating the death number, and we should then get a regional idea of how many are infected locally - e.g. 100 dead in Bolton at 0.8% CFR means 12,500 infected Edited April 6, 2020 by peelyfeet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members burnden Posted April 6, 2020 Members Share Posted April 6, 2020 Oxford Uni doing a study and looking for participants https://covidstudy.zoo.ox.ac.uk/#section1 https://oxford.onlinesurveys.ac.uk/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-in-the-uk-community Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jules_darby Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 1 hour ago, DazBob said: Just caught up on here. @Spider, so sorry to hear of your loss, truly heartbreaking. Just glad for you both that you got her out of that home and were able to spend the time together. Same. Can’t keep up with this thread and it’s not far off the only one I’ve read in weeks but condolences to @Spider and family x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Casino Posted April 6, 2020 Moderators Share Posted April 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, burnden said: Oxford Uni doing a study and looking for participants https://covidstudy.zoo.ox.ac.uk/#section1 https://oxford.onlinesurveys.ac.uk/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-in-the-uk-community Whatever happened to that bloke whose head all but exploded on a clinical trial Did he recover to be normal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 6, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted April 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Casino said: Whatever happened to that bloke whose head all but exploded on a clinical trial Did he recover to be normal? New Frank Sidebottom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Casino said: Whatever happened to that bloke whose head all but exploded on a clinical trial Did he recover to be normal? Does he post on here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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