Coronavirus

[Cheese]

My sister is pretty much fully recovered now. Just gets short of breath occasionally. Brother-in-law still hasn't recieved his results after getting tested 6 days ago, but hasn't shown any symptoms either.

[Ani]

54 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

The R is way below that outside of hospitals and care homes

Really ? 

[miamiwhite]

32 minutes ago, Cheese said:

My sister is pretty much fully recovered now. Just gets short of breath occasionally. Brother-in-law still hasn't recieved his results after getting tested 6 days ago, but hasn't shown any symptoms either.

Great to hear pal re your sister. Hope the brother-in-law is ok too.👍

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Ani said:

Really ? 

See post above

[Ani]

41 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8297425/Coronavirus-infecting-20-000-people-day-Britain-warns-leading-expert.html

"Despite the R rate being high in hospitals and care homes, which are higher risk areas, it is believed to be very low in the community because people are no longer having regular face-to-face contact with others.  

Professor Edmunds told the science committee that, a couple of weeks ago he would have said the R in the community was between 0.6 and 0.8"

 

I expect they are testing?

Keep the populations apart, is what I've said throughout, it remains good strategy.

That's why schools should still be learning.

This article says 0.6 and 0.8. 
 

if we relax the lockdown do you agree it goes up ? 
 

Current is 5k per day. If you want to say it is currently 0.5 but goes up to 0.7. That is a 40% increase.  So 2k per day extra. With 5k identified new cases per day any increase is significant. Why take the risk now ? 

[Ani]

3 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

See post above

Where you quote 0.6 to 0.8 ?? Whereas I said 0.5 to 0.8 ? 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Ani

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Ani said:

This article says 0.6 and 0.8. 
 

if we relax the lockdown do you agree it goes up ? 
 

Current is 5k per day. If you want to say it is currently 0.5 but goes up to 0.7. That is a 40% increase.  So 2k per day extra. With 5k identified new cases per day any increase is significant. Why take the risk now ? 

No, I don’t agree it necessarily goes up.

If the analysis is correct, the R number is higher than the range we outlined because of the infection rate in hospitals and care homes.

[Ani]

1 minute ago, boltondiver said:

No, I don’t agree it necessarily goes up.

If the analysis is correct, the R number is higher than the range we outlined because of the infection rate in hospitals and care homes.

So relaxing lockdown won’t increase the R rate ?? 

[Escobarp]

Whitty went into this earlier this week on one of his briefings. I’m sure from memory that opening schools would lead to a rise of 0.3 in the R rate alone they felt. 
 

and then he showed a table showing exponential growth differences for the different r rates. A rise from 0.7 to 1 was scary. Truly scary. When it goes above that  1 it becomes silly 

[Zico]

52 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Good point, but it is the R in care homes and hospitals that is the problem, not the pricks.

Are the pricks not part of the reason people are in hospital?

[Traf]

Meanwhile, in Tonge Moor...

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/police-find-40-people-including-18228773

[Tombwfc]

Unless we're locking up care homes and hospitals - and the households of the people who work in them - then I don't see where the idea comes from that there's any way to contain it to just those areas.

If 20,000 people are catching it every day already, you only need a couple of those to be leaving the house asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic and you're off to the races again.

[Escobarp]

So we come back to where we always do

we cannot stop this from

spreading over and over again unless we lockdown Permanently until a vaccine is found. 
 

spain Germany Italy all these nations will be back to where we were before.  just with the public now having a greater idea of how to try and slow it down a touch which will help but ultimately it’s futile. 
 

So what’s the answer to lockdown fully for a year or more? 
 

or try and make our way as best we can re-opening where we make all reasonable efforts to slow this down with the knowledge that we cannot stop it?

for me it’s second option all day long. It’s the only real option 

[miamiwhite]

16 minutes ago, Traf said:

Meanwhile, in Tonge Moor...

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/police-find-40-people-including-18228773

I take it you've got RW on block mate 😂

[Cheese]

20 minutes ago, Ani said:

So relaxing lockdown won’t increase the R rate ?? 

I don't think boltondiver understands what the R number means.

[Zico]

8 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

So we come back to where we always do

we cannot stop this from

spreading over and over again unless we lockdown Permanently until a vaccine is found. 
 

spain Germany Italy all these nations will be back to where we were before.  just with the public now having a greater idea of how to try and slow it down a touch which will help but ultimately it’s futile. 
 

So what’s the answer to lockdown fully for a year or more? 
 

or try and make our way as best we can re-opening where we make all reasonable efforts to slow this down with the knowledge that we cannot stop it?

for me it’s second option all day long. It’s the only real option 

I'm with option two, once we can consistently test at high volume and equip the relevant people with the PPE they need 

If getting to that stage requires patience, so be it, and by that im talking weeks not months

If it means trusting the UKs collective common sense whilst we figure out what to do next I think we will regress, unless, they are close to required levels of testing and PPE

[Escobarp]

1 minute ago, ZicoKelly said:

I'm with option two, once we can consistently test at high volume and equip the relevant people with the PPE they need 

If getting to that stage requires patience, so be it, and by that im talking weeks not months

If it means trusting the UKs collective common sense whilst we figure out what to do next I think we will regress, unless, they are close to required levels of testing and PPE

absolutely agree. I think we need to have by the end of this next 3 weeks a clear plan with timed milestones how we get things going.
But everyone needs to accept if we get to the trigger point where the stats say we are going to overrun the nhs at a point in the future we end up back where we are again potentially.

i think we all thought tonight was that milestone delivery speech I just don’t think we are there yet  

3 more weeks 

 

 

[gonzo]

What time is the pub open then?

[Tombwfc]

11 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

So we come back to where we always do

we cannot stop this from

spreading over and over again unless we lockdown Permanently until a vaccine is found. 
 

spain Germany Italy all these nations will be back to where we were before.  just with the public now having a greater idea of how to try and slow it down a touch which will help but ultimately it’s futile. 
 

So what’s the answer to lockdown fully for a year or more? 
 

or try and make our way as best we can re-opening where we make all reasonable efforts to slow this down with the knowledge that we cannot stop it?

for me it’s second option all day long. It’s the only real option 

 

It's not that binary I don't think. The options aren't ease our fairly loose restrictions now, or keep them for a year. 

It's just saying the number of new cases are still pretty high for us to be sending millions back to work. Especially when we have no ability to track and trace cases, growing but inflexible testing capabilities and no PPE beyond what is absolutely needed for the NHS and care sector.

[miamiwhite]

5 minutes ago, Tombwfc said:

 

It's not that binary I don't think. The options aren't ease our fairly loose restrictions now, or keep them for a year. 

It's just saying the number of new cases are still pretty high for us to be sending millions back to work. Especially when we have no ability to track and trace cases, growing but inflexible testing capabilities and no PPE beyond what is absolutely needed for the NHS and care sector.

I'm expecting news on that front , especially from the BBI consortium. One of the consortium has doubled its production facilities in the past couple of weeks.

Funded by the government in conjunction with Oxford Uni amongst others. Wouldn't be surprised if this isn't mentioned tonight, especially as Abingdon Health from the consortium have been making big noises on social media.

[Ruba Mustafa]

Wee jimmy krankie been banging on about easing lockdown for the last week or so, now that we might be easing up a bit she’s saying that Scotland isn’t ! 

Stupid fucking cow

[Escobarp]

2 minutes ago, Ruba Mustafa said:

Wee jimmy krankie been banging on about easing lockdown for the last week or so, now that we might be easing up a bit she’s saying that Scotland isn’t ! 

Stupid fucking cow

Not only me that has noticed this then 

[miamiwhite]

3 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Not only me that has noticed this then 

 

[Escobarp]

11 minutes ago, miamiwhite said:

 

😂😂😂😂 

[Escobarp]