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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

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2 hours ago, Boby Brno said:

In the last week daily cases in the UK have risen by 58%. At the same rate, unchecked, we will be at 48,000 in 5 weeks. That’s just simple maths. It’s not politics, it’s not project fear. 

It isn't fact, though, just maths, as you say. Based on a short time, with only France and Spain by way of comparison. Poor. Skewed.

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4 hours ago, tyldesley_white said:

Ani, I posted this on Thursday

 

On the subject off a vaccine, 2 of the 3 drug companies have come out this evening ( mainly because Trump is still pushing his timeline)  and give their version of what they expect it to happen ,Moderna have said that if everything goes to plan the trials could be over end of October early November, Pfizer have said mid November, but and this is the big but by the time all off the data has been collected and analysed you will be looking at the April to May timeline for a vaccine. AstraZeneca have not said anything but the trials that have just restarted have only restarted in the UK, the FDA here at the moment have not given approval for the trail to restart

Fair enough had not seen that. But Valance certainly indicated earlier yesterday. 

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4 minutes ago, Casino said:

maybe not

Like the virus killed of the oldies first time around, maybe its infecting the careless this time

We might run out of careless types

Prob not explaining this well, but id guess your chances of catching it wont be reduced cos of the new measures

It’s called foresight based on the information available. Every man and his dog will be weighing in with the benefit of hindsight in a few weeks time. 
I’m only explaining the reasoning behind the figures quoted yesterday.

I’ve been sceptical about whether the increase in cases turn into the deaths we saw earlier in the year. I don’t know. What I do know is that we are where we were in March. The government got slated for locking down too late. What do they do now? Knowing the economic impact of lockdown.

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I understand the cynics are saying the figures used are not correct. 
 

If anyone who does not agree with 50k per day figure would be good enough to say what the number might be in say 4 weeks if we do nothing that should provide some balance. 
 

There was just short of 5000 today. Not expecting an exact number but just a rough idea of % up or down. No need to show you workings but a bit of the logic would be good. 

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9 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

It isn't fact, though, just maths, as you say. Based on a short time, with only France and Spain by way of comparison. Poor. Skewed.

What they arent telling us, is they already know roughly how many are going to be dying per day 2 -3 weeks from now. They know the current inpatient profiles and their % chance of survival, they know the treatment success rate, so bear that in mind. 

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1 minute ago, peelyfeet said:

What they arent telling us, is they already know roughly how many are going to be dying per day 2 -3 weeks from now. They know the current inpatient profiles and their % chance of survival, they know the treatment success rate, so bear that in mind. 

OK, will do.

Pehaps they could share that data with us?

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3 minutes ago, Casino said:

Not got a clue pal

Id prefer it wasnt these idiots running the show, mind

I’m not defending the government. Communication has been pathetic. Decisions? Who knows. Some say they should be harder, some say they have gone too far. If WW was a government, nothing would get done, too many differing views. Apart from Germany as I’ve said previously, every government has been criticised by its people. (there have been demonstrations in Germany though)

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5 minutes ago, Ani said:

I understand the cynics are saying the figures used are not correct. 
 

If anyone who does not agree with 50k per day figure would be good enough to say what the number might be in say 4 weeks if we do nothing that should provide some balance. 
 

There was just short of 5000 today. Not expecting an exact number but just a rough idea of % up or down. No need to show you workings but a bit of the logic would be good. 

They didn't agree the 50,000 themselves!

They just left it there so people wold remember that one slide.

 

If you project forward on the current trend, you are at 15,000/day

 

Image

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1 minute ago, boltondiver said:

OK, will do.

Pehaps they could share that data with us?

Maybe they're a bit cautious because last time they initially  got slated for saying 20k would be a good outcome, when they were right, then slated when we went past 20k and slated (and mis quoted constantly) for predicting 550k if we went for herd immunity? 

Whatever they say they'll get criticism. 

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Just now, peelyfeet said:

Maybe they're a bit cautious because last time they initially  got slated for saying 20k would be a good outcome, when they were right, then slated when we went past 20k and slated (and mis quoted constantly) for predicting 550k if we went for herd immunity? 

Whatever they say they'll get criticism. 

True

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1 minute ago, peelyfeet said:

Maybe they're a bit cautious because last time they initially  got slated for saying 20k would be a good outcome, when they were right, then slated when we went past 20k and slated (and mis quoted constantly) for predicting 550k if we went for herd immunity? 

Whatever they say they'll get criticism. 

This with bells on. 

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3 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

This with bells on. 

It'll happen again with this. 

If we go over 50k, they'll be accused of underestimating, not doing enough.

If we go under, or only at 50k for a few weeks, folk will say there was no need for restrictions, we over reacted.

Cant win

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Just now, peelyfeet said:

It'll happen again with this. 

If we go over 50k, they'll be accused of underestimating, not doing enough.

If we go under, or only at 50k for a few weeks, folk will say there was no need for restrictions, we over reacted.

Cant win

Well, they can win. We'll never know what might have happened, so, we'll "save thousands of lives"

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3 minutes ago, Boby Brno said:

Think he got his info from here.

With ref to your other chart re estimated cases, your chart doesn’t take into account exponential growth which is what they are predicting.

Wonder why the charts/data are so different?

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7 minutes ago, Boby Brno said:

Think he got his info from here.

With ref to your other chart re estimated cases, your chart doesn’t take into account exponential growth which is what they are predicting.

Yeah. Tried to copy the link but was beyond me. 
 

Let’s remember they did predict anything they said that is what would happen if infections continued to accelerate. 

Edited by Ani
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1 minute ago, wiggy said:

I know I’m starting to sound like a broken record but my god this isn’t that complicated. If everyone carries on piling into the pub and cuddling up to everyone they see then people are going to die. Might be 100. Might be 1000. Might be 10000. Might be 100000. But people will die. Just stay home for bit and stop moaning.

I’m with Wiggy

Its not fucking hard

If we all just lie low for a bit, put a mask over gritted teeth and fight the good fight, we could all be at the match by Boxing Day.

Worst way, we all over reacted and things are fine.

Im just sick of the fucking moaning to be honest.

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2 minutes ago, wiggy said:

I know I’m starting to sound like a broken record but my god this isn’t that complicated. If everyone carries on piling into the pub and cuddling up to everyone they see then people are going to die. Might be 100. Might be 1000. Might be 10000. Might be 100000. But people will die. Just stay home for bit and stop moaning.

There are life/death consequences on both sides.

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10 minutes ago, Spider said:

I’m with Wiggy

Its not fucking hard

If we all just lie low for a bit, put a mask over gritted teeth and fight the good fight, we could all be at the match by Boxing Day.

Worst way, we all over reacted and things are fine.

Im just sick of the fucking moaning to be honest.

Yep, if you're out in public, wear a mask, it's not fucking hard.

If you can't wear a mask, stay at home.

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