peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 The NW infection rate has shot up like a bastard on zoe last 2 days. But Bolton has gone down, 23rd on the list now. My mate the NHS planner says Blackburn hospital is full. No room. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
athywhite1958 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 18 minutes ago, Rudy said: Beltin busters them are Rudy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Casino Posted October 10, 2020 Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: The NW infection rate has shot up like a bastard on zoe last 2 days. But Bolton has gone down, 23rd on the list now. My mate the NHS planner says Blackburn hospital is full. No room. Icu? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/18780708.warning-covid-patients-overwhelm-hospitals-lockdown-announcement-put-back/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Just now, Casino said: Icu? Don't know, he had a mask on, saw him at the kids footy today, we had to stand 2 m apart at the eddie Davies, they put cones down the side of the 3g. One parent per boy, not allowed out of our cars until kick off. He was about 3 cones down. He said something about Preston too, but I didn't get it all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birch-chorley Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: The amount of folk killed by the flu each year is somewhat determined by how effective the annual flu vaccine is. Theres a few strains of flu that mutate each year to some extent. The pharma companies try to follow the mutations as best they can, and create the best flu shot they can anticipate, targeted on the strains they think will be most prevalent. The flu shot protects against several strains at once. If they get the prediction correct, less people die. The covid vaccine targets the section of the virus genome that enables the virus to enter human cells. Deactivate this section and the virus is useless. There hasn't been any mutations yet that will prevent the vaccine from deactivating the cell entry function. So if it continues like this, we won't need another vaccine, and it will be a lot more effective than the flu shot, to the extent that covid would become extinct, like SARS. I spent a few days working with the British Society of Immunology a year ago on a project to increase uptake of MMR I was of the understanding that vaccines have a success rate, I.e if you vaccinate 10m people it will work in 9m, 1m it won’t. Part of the reason viruses like Measles haven’t yet been eradicated With that in mind, even if a vaccine is successfully released next year I’d imagine people will still be dying of Covid in 2022 & 2023. So, if we want to do ‘everything we can to stop people dying’ of the Covid virus then it won’t end when we have a vaccine. On another note, next time they get the flu vaccine wrong like they did in the Winter of 2017 / 2018 what should we do differently?50,000 more people died that year than in a usual Winter. Next time that happens should the government now look to bring in restrictions to reduce the R number and lower deaths? Seems strange now looking back that we did nothing that Winter and let 50k more people die Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Rudy Posted October 10, 2020 Author Members Share Posted October 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, athywhite1958 said: Beltin busters them are Rudy Glad you appreciate it, load of queers in here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 (edited) 35 minutes ago, birch-chorley said: I spent a few days working with the British Society of Immunology a year ago on a project to increase uptake of MMR I was of the understanding that vaccines have a success rate, I.e if you vaccinate 10m people it will work in 9m, 1m it won’t. Part of the reason viruses like Measles haven’t yet been eradicated With that in mind, even if a vaccine is successfully released next year I’d imagine people will still be dying of Covid in 2022 & 2023. So, if we want to do ‘everything we can to stop people dying’ of the Covid virus then it won’t end when we have a vaccine. On another note, next time they get the flu vaccine wrong like they did in the Winter of 2017 / 2018 what should we do differently?50,000 more people died that year than in a usual Winter. Next time that happens should the government now look to bring in restrictions to reduce the R number and lower deaths? Seems strange now looking back that we did nothing that Winter and let 50k more people die That's right, but if you get to herd immunity, and the virus doesn't mutate, it ultimately dies out, because it runs out of folk to infect. 70% population is thought to be enough. Flu mutates every year, so your % of population infected is always fluctuating up and down, they doubt this will happen with covid, if they get the vaccine out in time. We can deal with 50k in a flu season, the NHS is built with flu resilience in mind. We aint had a flu season with covid yet and we're already past 50k, with loads of restrictions. 394 died from flu from 1st Jan to 31st Aug this year. 50k covid over same period. Measles doesn't mutate. Get a couple of shots snd you're immune for life. Problem with measles, is, its miles more contagious than covid or flu. It has an R rate of 12-18. So herd immunity is nearer 100%, and by the time you get near to it, new kids are born. Covid and flu has an R rate of 1 point something Edited October 10, 2020 by peelyfeet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birch-chorley Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 (edited) 27 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: That's right, but if you get to herd immunity, and the virus doesn't mutate, it ultimately dies out, because it runs out of folk to infect. 70% population is thought to be enough. Flu mutates every year, so your % of population infected is always fluctuating up and down, they doubt this will happen with covid, if they get the vaccine out in time. We can deal with 50k in a flu season, the NHS is built with flu resilience in mind. We aint had a flu season with covid yet and we're already past 50k, with loads of restrictions. 394 died from flu from 1st Jan to 31st Aug this year. 50k covid over same period. understand herd immunity, although when working with the BSI they said you needed more like 93% immunity to eradicate a virus. I’m sure they also said that vaccine effectiveness was something like 90% generally. Point being, folk are going to be dying from Covid for a few years yet before it’s eradicated surely? (Granted these numbers were for eradicating Measles, Covid might well be different) Also, I’m not talking about flu deaths this year, the vaccine is obviously doing it’s job 👍🏻 However next time they get the flu jab wrong, like they did in 2017/2018 will the precedent now be to shut everything down to protect the vulnerable? Seems strange that they knew early that Winter that the flu vaccine was well off the mark but nobody batted an eye lid and 50,000 more died. Hard to see how they can square that off again next time it happens following all this Edited October 10, 2020 by birch-chorley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Just now, birch-chorley said: understand herd immunity, although when working with the BSI they said you needed more like 93% immunity to eradicate a virus. I’m sure they also said that vaccine effectiveness was something like 90% generally. Point being, folk are going to be dying from Covid for a few years yet before it’s eradicated surely? Also, I’m not talking about flu deaths this year, the vaccine is obviously doing it’s job 👍🏻 However next time they get the flu jab wrong, like they did in 2017/2018 will the precedent now be to shut everything down to protect the vulnerable? Seems strange that they knew early that Winter that the flu vaccine was well off the mark but nobody batted an eye lid and 50,000 more died. Hard to see how they can square that off again next time it happens following all this See above, I added a bit about measles. The lower the R rate and the lower the mutations the lower the herd immunity required. If the R rate is naturally 1, and the virus doesn't mutate, by the time you get to 70%, the R rate drops to 0.3 so every 100 infected people infected 30 others and those 30 infect 9, 9 infect 3, and then its gone. If the R rate is 15, when you get to 70%, the r rate is still 4.5, so every 100 infect 450, and it continues to spread. We might wear masks again in future but we won't need lockdowns for normal flu, unless we get a nasty one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birch-chorley Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: See above, I added a bit about measles. The lower the R rate and the lower the mutations the lower the herd immunity required. If the R rate is naturally 1, and the virus doesn't mutate, by the time you get to 70%, the R rate drops to 0.3 so every 100 infected people infected 30 others and those 30 infect 9, 9 infect 3, and then its gone. If the R rate is 15, when you get to 70%, the r rate is still 4.5, so every 100 infect 450, and it continues to spread. We might wear masks again in future but we won't need lockdowns for normal flu, unless we get a nasty one. Not sure how often we get a nasty flu, I know of the 2017 / 2018 one because the wife’s nan died of it (well pneumonia after it). 12 of us sat down for dinner on Xmas day, 10 got flu, 3 went into hospital, 1 died! The hospital was bombed out with cases and they said the vaccine hadn’t worked well that year Can’t imagine a bad flu like that happening again without a lot of restrictions (now the precedent has been set with Covid) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 I’ve never had flu as of yet. @peelyfeet is that unusual in 40+ years not to have caught it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Just now, birch-chorley said: Not sure how often we get a nasty flu, I know of the 2017 / 2018 one because the wife’s nan died of it (well pneumonia after it). 12 of us sat down for dinner on Xmas day, 10 got flu, 3 went into hospital, 1 died! The hospital was bombed out with cases and they said the vaccine hadn’t worked well that year Can’t imagine a bad flu like that happening again without a lot of restrictions (now the precedent has been set with Covid) Probably right mate. The Japanese started wearing masks after Spanish flu, and carried on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Just now, Escobarp said: I’ve never had flu as of yet. @peelyfeet is that unusual in 40+ years not to have caught it? You might of had a v low dose and not known. I've had it bad once and mildly once that I know off in 47 yr, Mrs reckons shes never had it, but antibody studies suggest we get it about once every 5 years. I lost a few days in bed when 20 ish, my immune system was fucked cos id done about 10 E's, smoked 60 cigs and several spliffs, and got bladdered, then worked at Park Hall on new years eve night and had no sleep. Served me right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted October 10, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted October 10, 2020 Never had flu My mum had it bad when she was pregnant with me and apparently I’m immune. So you’re all gay and my mum was better than yours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweep Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 I'm 47, and never had flu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Just now, Spider said: Never had flu My mum had it bad when she was pregnant with me and apparently I’m immune. So you’re all gay and my mum was better than yours As a kid I had german measles, whooping cough, chicken pox, scarlet fever, mumps, broke my arm falling of a cliff on the Isle of Jura, a spanish variant of chicken pox, stitches in my calf, knee, both eyebrows, chin twice, finger, got both my front teeth knocked out, dislocated left kneecap knocked over by a car outside school, before I was 15. My dad said to a dr in hospital once " he's a bit reckless" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickbrown Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 34 minutes ago, Escobarp said: I’ve never had flu as of yet. @peelyfeet is that unusual in 40+ years not to have caught it? Me neither. I reckon I'm just more highly evolved than the rest of the neanderthals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 You've all probably had it but thought it was a cold. One of my sons had susoected swine flu about 10 yrs ago, when he was 5. he felt ill for about 4 hrs, had to get the dr out, gave him tamiflu, he took it and was back to normal the next morning. Great thing the immune system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter only1swanny Posted October 10, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted October 10, 2020 Had flu at xmas absolutely grim. Had to get my mum over 3 days in a row as I couldn't even sit up to look after the kids ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickbrown Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Anyway. Not had one of these for a while. Bent as fuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Casino Posted October 11, 2020 Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2020 I rethink its best just to drop em and bend over, Michael Too many dont seem to give a fuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superkev Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 All these saying you haven’t had flu. Unless you were tested then you wouldn’t have known. You may have been asymptomatic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not in Crawley Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Had flu once, not nice at all. The difference with a bad cold was I just could get out of bed - folks drove down from Bolton to Cambridge to look after the kids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Rudy Posted October 11, 2020 Author Members Share Posted October 11, 2020 9 hours ago, Sweep said: I'm 47, and never had flu AIDS sorts it out for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.