Coronavirus

[wiggy]

Particularly enjoying the argument from some people that the new measures are unfair / unnecessary because the number of cases is falling. Why on earth do they think numbers are dropping?

Plenty of people had already said they would be doing their normal Christmas regardless of what is allowed. Of course we need to try and keep numbers low now.

 

[Spider]

1 minute ago, wiggy said:

Particularly enjoying the argument from some people that the new measures are unfair / unnecessary because the number of cases is falling. Why on earth do they think numbers are dropping?

Plenty of people had already said they would be doing their normal Christmas regardless of what is allowed. Of course we need to try and keep numbers low now.

 

Indeed

”numbers are lower, we should all be down the pub”

Its because we aren’t in the pub or carrying on as normal that the numbers are down.

seems pretty simple to me.

Theyre still not low enough though.

One big push, have a quiet xmas, and we can be near normal by March.

I’m as bored as anyone, but prepared to just give it one last go at behaving.

[Horwich]

Gtr Mcr rates are falling

Gtr Mcr rates are still too high

Tier 3 is currently the correct tier

Folk are stupid.

[MickyD]

/\ this

 

[Not in Crawley]

14 hours ago, Casino said:

Agreed, so should be tier 3 to protect the areas that need protecting

I know but thankfully I've no need to venture north of the river anytime soon.

[birch-chorley]

This economic picture is looking worse by the day 

Circa £400bn of additional debt taken on this year, higher now as a % of GDP than it’s been since it was in the 1950’s following WW2. The best case scenario saying our economy will always be -3% behind where it would have been otherwise 

We also need to find a way to close a £40bn a year gap in annual finances. To close that, as an example, we would need to either a) Close down all high schools b) reduce our NHS budget by 30% c) increase the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 27% d) a combination of loads of different tax rises and spending cuts.

That’s just to keep the debt flat, we will need to go further if we want to pay the debt down to a more reasonable level so we aren’t leaving our kids and grandkids a bag of shit. Who knows, they may have a pandemic of their own to pay for in a few decades, we shouldn’t be asking them to pay ours as well because we couldn’t stomach the bill 

[Sweep]

18 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

This economic picture is looking worse by the day 

Circa £400bn of additional debt taken on this year, higher now as a % of GDP than it’s been since it was in the 1950’s following WW2. The best case scenario saying our economy will always be -3% behind where it would have been otherwise 

We also need to find a way to close a £40bn a year gap in annual finances. To close that, as an example, we would need to either a) Close down all high schools b) reduce our NHS budget by 30% c) increase the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 27% d) a combination of loads of different tax rises and spending cuts.

That’s just to keep the debt flat, we will need to go further if we want to pay the debt down to a more reasonable level so we aren’t leaving our kids and grandkids a bag of shit. Who knows, they may have a pandemic of their own to pay for in a few decades, we shouldn’t be asking them to pay ours as well because we couldn’t stomach the bill 

I think we all know tax rises are coming - and they'll be big. First thing to go will be the 40% tax relief on pension contributions, that's a given. Next thing will be to reduce the amount required to shove you into the 40% tax band. The we'll have a 1% uplift in NI, I'd also expect VAT to be shoved up to 22% as well.

There's plenty of ways they can claw the money back, it'll take time though, and like it or not, the kids of today, and those not even born yet are going to be paying this back, that's just how it is, no way should we be trying to fix/repay everything in a short period of time, it's just not possible

Do we have any stats/figures on the levels of debt other countries are racking up, as a percentage of their GDP?

[Rudy]

8 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I think we all know tax rises are coming - and they'll be big. First thing to go will be the 40% tax relief on pension contributions, that's a given. Next thing will be to reduce the amount required to shove you into the 40% tax band. The we'll have a 1% uplift in NI, I'd also expect VAT to be shoved up to 22% as well.

There's plenty of ways they can claw the money back, it'll take time though, and like it or not, the kids of today, and those not even born yet are going to be paying this back, that's just how it is, no way should we be trying to fix/repay everything in a short period of time, it's just not possible

Do we have any stats/figures on the levels of debt other countries are racking up, as a percentage of their GDP?

[birch-chorley]

4 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I think we all know tax rises are coming - and they'll be big. First thing to go will be the 40% tax relief on pension contributions, that's a given. Next thing will be to reduce the amount required to shove you into the 40% tax band. The we'll have a 1% uplift in NI, I'd also expect VAT to be shoved up to 22% as well.

There's plenty of ways they can claw the money back, it'll take time though, and like it or not, the kids of today, and those not even born yet are going to be paying this back, that's just how it is, no way should we be trying to fix/repay everything in a short period of time, it's just not possible

Do we have any stats/figures on the levels of debt other countries are racking up, as a percentage of their GDP?

In terms of other countries, our GDP has been hit the hardest (apart from arguably Spain). In some cases our hit has been x2 or even x3 times worse than other comparable nations (France, Germany, US & Italy).most of which have a service sector the same size as ours. So you’d assume their debt and budget deficits will also be much smaller (given GDP has a direct correlation with tax and budget deficits) 

The pension relief will go as that doesn’t take money out of peoples pockets now so won’t have a negative impact on the economy now, think that only generates £4bn though. The pension triple lock will (and should) bite the dust, no reason why state pensions should outperform inflation year on year. That’s saved another £6bn, however it’s £6bn straight out of pensioners pockets so it will likely impact the grey economy. 

Basic rate tax, higher rate tax and VAT will surely have to go up, but again your taking billions out of peoples pockets immediately so they can’t spend the same and it impacts the jobs market now also. Meaning your struggling to re employ the millions who have just been made redundant through no fault of their own 

This foreign aid is a hot topic, you can make a case for scrapping it as much as you can for keeping it, that’s £10bn a year 

I think the NHS will have to kiss good by to all the extra money promised at the last election. Won’t go down well but it’s a huge chunk of money we can ill afford. Given the NHS required something daft like +5% a year to stand still in terms of what it can do I’d say we need to look at reducing its scope unfortunately 

In terms of passing all this debt on, I’m personally not comfortable leaving it all for future generations to sort out, it’s our mess, we have had the benefit so we should at least try to get it in better shape over the next 10 / 20 years. I think our national debt is now 3 times what it was 10 years ago when all major parties said it’s too high, unsustainable and needs bringing down (Gordon Brown, Cameron, Clegg at the 2010 election) 

 

[Farrelli]

22 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I think we all know tax rises are coming - and they'll be big. First thing to go will be the 40% tax relief on pension contributions, that's a given. Next thing will be to reduce the amount required to shove you into the 40% tax band. The we'll have a 1% uplift in NI, I'd also expect VAT to be shoved up to 22% as well.

There's plenty of ways they can claw the money back, it'll take time though, and like it or not, the kids of today, and those not even born yet are going to be paying this back, that's just how it is, no way should we be trying to fix/repay everything in a short period of time, it's just not possible

Do we have any stats/figures on the levels of debt other countries are racking up, as a percentage of their GDP?

Yes but luckily for them the benefits of brexit will be realised by then to soften the blow🤪- they can thank us later

Edited November 27, 2020 by Farrelli

[gonzo]

Why is christs name would they switch the lights back on over this way?

 

[masi 51]

51 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

In terms of other countries, our GDP has been hit the hardest (apart from arguably Spain). In some cases our hit has been x2 or even x3 times worse than other comparable nations (France, Germany, US & Italy).most of which have a service sector the same size as ours. So you’d assume their debt and budget deficits will also be much smaller (given GDP has a direct correlation with tax and budget deficits) 

The pension relief will go as that doesn’t take money out of peoples pockets now so won’t have a negative impact on the economy now, think that only generates £4bn though. The pension triple lock will (and should) bite the dust, no reason why state pensions should outperform inflation year on year. That’s saved another £6bn, however it’s £6bn straight out of pensioners pockets so it will likely impact the grey economy. 

Basic rate tax, higher rate tax and VAT will surely have to go up, but again your taking billions out of peoples pockets immediately so they can’t spend the same and it impacts the jobs market now also. Meaning your struggling to re employ the millions who have just been made redundant through no fault of their own 

This foreign aid is a hot topic, you can make a case for scrapping it as much as you can for keeping it, that’s £10bn a year 

I think the NHS will have to kiss good by to all the extra money promised at the last election. Won’t go down well but it’s a huge chunk of money we can ill afford. Given the NHS required something daft like +5% a year to stand still in terms of what it can do I’d say we need to look at reducing its scope unfortunately 

In terms of passing all this debt on, I’m personally not comfortable leaving it all for future generations to sort out, it’s our mess, we have had the benefit so we should at least try to get it in better shape over the next 10 / 20 years. I think our national debt is now 3 times what it was 10 years ago when all major parties said it’s too high, unsustainable and needs bringing down (Gordon Brown, Cameron, Clegg at the 2010 election) 

 

Vat will Rise could even it 25% Pensioners will be hit as above the tax relief and Triple lock will be abolished

Foreign aid will now be cut year on year

National health may be unchanged, but the will not be 40 new Hospitals and 40k more nurses/doctors,same with the police i cannot see 10k more being recruited. Council tax will have to rise because we will get shit all off central goverment and last but not least we will soon be paying tolls on all motorways

[birch-chorley]

18 minutes ago, masi 51 said:

Vat will Rise could even it 25% Pensioners will be hit as above the tax relief and Triple lock will be abolished

Foreign aid will now be cut year on year

National health may be unchanged, but the will not be 40 new Hospitals and 40k more nurses/doctors,same with the police i cannot see 10k more being recruited. Council tax will have to rise because we will get shit all off central goverment and last but not least we will soon be paying tolls on all motorways

Aye, think it will be more of a freeze (or small gain) for some key services like Policing and the NHS rather than cuts, but in reality they will be called cuts given it’s a reduction in spending vs what was on the table. From 2010 to 2020 the NHS budget went up 10% yet the opposition party continually referred to it as ‘cuts to the NHS’ for this reason 

With regards Pensions, I’d like to see Public sector pensions get scaled back as well, certainly for higher rate tax payers working in the Public Sector. Its only fair if we are taking 15% out of higher rate tax payers in the Private Sector. I assume that’s on the table?  

Sure I read somewhere that the annual bill for Public Sector pensions is currently £40bn or £50bn a year, that’s about 6% of all government spending. On top of the £100bn state pension costs each year which is another 10-15%. Just think nearly 20p in every £1 spent by the government goes on pensions! 

[Ani]

3 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Aye, think it will be more of a freeze (or small gain) for some key services like Policing and the NHS rather than cuts, but in reality they will be called cuts given it’s a reduction in spending vs what was on the table. From 2010 to 2020 the NHS budget went up 10% yet the opposition party continually referred to it as ‘cuts to the NHS’ for this reason 

With regards Pensions, I’d like to see Public sector pensions get scaled back as well, certainly for higher rate tax payers working in the Public Sector. Its only fair if we are taking 15% out of higher rate tax payers in the Private Sector. I assume that’s on the table?  

Sure I read somewhere that the annual bill for Public Sector pensions is currently £40bn or £50bn a year, that’s about 6% of all government spending. On top of the £100bn state pension costs each year which is another 10-15%. Just think nearly 20p in every £1 spent by the government goes on pensions! 

Tbf they have tried to kill as many off as possible in the last few months. 

[Sweep]

1 hour ago, birch-chorley said:

 In terms of passing all this debt on, I’m personally not comfortable leaving it all for future generations to sort out, it’s our mess, we have had the benefit so we should at least try to get it in better shape over the next 10 / 20 years. I think our national debt is now 3 times what it was 10 years ago when all major parties said it’s too high, unsustainable and needs bringing down (Gordon Brown, Cameron, Clegg at the 2010 election) 

 

In the words of a poster off here, is that not just "tough shit" ?

We only just stopped paying the WW2 debt in 2006, so in effect I was paying some of my taxes towards that, and it wasn't "my mess"  - it's just the way it is........or as folk like to say now "it is what it is"

Hopefully, this will speed up the privatisation of the NHS, which would hopefully help reduce that particular debt burden.

Personally, I'd be happy enough to pay an extra 5p in the £ in tax to help shift this debt down - every extra 1p in the pound collected as tax apparently raises £5B, so if we went down that road, that would be an extra £25B per year, which would help..............but I can't see that being much of a vote winner moving forward 😀

 

[Spider]

What other options are there?

[Sweep]

Just now, Spider said:

What other options are there?

There are no options at all, it's tax hikes pure and simple....it'll all depend how long they want to stretch it out for. It could be worse, we could be leaving a large trading block in 34 days, with no plan or idea on how we're going to trade with them, can you imagine that happening at the same time. 😜

[birch-chorley]

6 minutes ago, Sweep said:

In the words of a poster off here, is that not just "tough shit" ?

We only just stopped paying the WW2 debt in 2006, so in effect I was paying some of my taxes towards that, and it wasn't "my mess"  - it's just the way it is........or as folk like to say now "it is what it is"

Hopefully, this will speed up the privatisation of the NHS, which would hopefully help reduce that particular debt burden.

Personally, I'd be happy enough to pay an extra 5p in the £ in tax to help shift this debt down - every extra 1p in the pound collected as tax apparently raises £5B, so if we went down that road, that would be an extra £25B per year, which would help..............but I can't see that being much of a vote winner moving forward 😀

 

To be fair to previous generations they paid most of the WW2 debt of themselves, it was 250% of GDP at the end of the war and only 50% of GDP 30 years later in 1975. If we were paying it off in the early 200’s it will have been very small numbers. Debt as a % of GDP was about 30% before the 2008 crash, 80% before Covid, its 110% now and likely to get to 150% over the coming years given the budget deficit. I’d say we have a duty to get that down on our watch just as previous generations did following WW2 

£0.05 in the £1 tax increase sounds like nothing, however for the average salary (£30,500) it would see additional tax of £1k per year, that’s £83 a month more tax (take home down from £2k to £1,920

Your costs don’t come down, if anything they will be going up (council tax, food, mortgage etc). As a % of disposable income that tax rose is going to be a fair old chunk 

Unintended consequence of that is a lot less disposable income to spend, that will hit many industries really hard, most of them will be the ones hardest hit through Covid. Won’t do the unemployment numbers any good, with it our budget deficit as we pay more in benefits and bring in less tax 

 

[Ani]

18 minutes ago, Spider said:

What other options are there?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-corporate-tax-avoidance-havens-justice-network-dodging-a8933661.html%3famp
 

We could get everyone to pay their share ? 

[Spider]

Just now, Ani said:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-corporate-tax-avoidance-havens-justice-network-dodging-a8933661.html%3famp
 

We could get everyone to pay their share ? 

So long as the people doing it are also the ones in charge, we can forget that ever happening.

[Ani]

20 minutes ago, Spider said:

What other options are there?

Scrap HS2. Do not spend the extra money on the defence budget. 
 

invest in proper house building. 

[Spider]

Just now, Ani said:

Scrap HS2. Do not spend the extra money on the defence budget. 
 

invest in proper house building. 

HS2 is absolute bollocks

[Spider]

Covid mink in Denmark coming back from the dead.

FINALLY some fucking zombie action

 

[Sweep]

17 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

 

£0.05 in the £1 tax increase sounds like nothing, however for the average salary (£30,500) it would see additional tax of £1k per year, that’s £83 a month more tax (take home down from £2k to £1,920

Your costs don’t come down, if anything they will be going up (council tax, food, mortgage etc). As a % of disposable income that tax rose is going to be a fair old chunk 

Unintended consequence of that is a lot less disposable income to spend, that will hit many industries really hard, most of them will be the ones hardest hit through Covid. Won’t do the unemployment numbers any good, with it our budget deficit as we pay more in benefits and bring in less tax 

 

I know an extra 5p is a lot, you asked for ways to pay down the debt so "the kids" don't have to, I've made a suggestion (and we know it'll never happen) - There is no way to pay it back, unless we look to take money directly out of peoples pockets

 

Sadly, the impending unemployment shitstorm/tsunami that's about to hit us, is going to set us back further. Like it or not, this deficit isn't going to be paid off within a generation, it's going to take decades. In 20 years time or so, when I'm dead and gone, this'll still be kicking around and we'll still be paying it off

[Traf]

36 minutes ago, Sweep said:

 It could be worse, we could be leaving a large trading block in 34 days, with no plan or idea on how we're going to trade with them, can you imagine that happening at the same time. 😜

Nobody would be stupid/stubborn enough to do that, would they?