Escobarp Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Zico said: No Get the priority groups sorted, then start to relax No you clearly said anyone who can’t have the vaccine should sit and wait around. So because I can’t have it I should put my life on hold while everyone else cracks on yes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Just now, Not in Crawley said: Will do, happy to be proved completely wrong (it's a common occurrence) might do it tomorrow I don't think your defiantely wrong - the conclusion I'm drawing is - they don't know whats going to happen because the succes is based on how many vaccines they can get in us, the take up of the vaccines in younger age groups, and exactly how well they work in middle aged, which I think is why they've given themselves 5 weeks - they're claiming that it takes that long to see a difference, which is bollocks, it takes that long to see the deaths, but they'll get the gist of whats happening after 2-3 weeks. If they can get the vaccine numbers up by an extra million a week, it will make a massive difference long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 I hate Boris but the job is impossible as a political decision. Half the people I know think too much too quick, other half complaining about the 5 week delays. Following the science is one approach but they do not have responsibility for the economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickbrown Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Not in Crawley said: Will do, happy to be proved completely wrong (it's a common occurrence) might do it tomorrow This thing had almost gone in August. Started to climb again in September, when the kids went back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Spider said: To be fair I think you’ve said for a long time that there’d be no more massive spikes and time said otherwise. You’ve always held the view that restrictions don’t make any difference. Sweden was a go to example for a fair while... And? 😁 I’m no fuckin scientist! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 1 minute ago, mickbrown said: This thing had almost gone in August. Started to climb again in September, when the kids went back 2+2 = >4? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickbrown Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Is it a job requirement of a journalist to have a speech impediment? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Casino Posted February 22, 2021 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ani said: I hate Boris but the job is impossible as a political decision. Half the people I know think too much too quick, other half complaining about the 5 week delays. Following the science is one approach but they do not have responsibility for the economy. Aye, if it fucks up, its not on him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickbrown Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, boltondiver said: 2+2 = >4? A massive coincidence? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted February 22, 2021 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, boltondiver said: I didn’t mention numbers of deaths, but Whitty should be listened to on deaths. When Boris said “more deaths”, I’m not even sure he meant “more”, rather “further” Deaths are stopping Well you did say they will plummet SAGE don't agree, see below One thing this last year has taught me is not to get your hopes up So I'm not pinning my hopes on having a pint in April There's still too many unknowns Which is why doing anything before anyone considered a priority has had one jab is asking for trouble "Even in the best case scenario SPI-M estimates that ‘at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths would occur under the new scenarios’ in the UK. The SAGE minutes state: “These scenarios show an epidemic resurgence which results in a substantial number of hospital admissions and deaths (high confidence). “There remains significant uncertainty about the scale and timing of such a resurgence. “Key uncertainties include vaccine effectiveness (against infection as well as severe disease), waning immunity, the emergence of novel variants, the extent of any seasonal factors, and behavioural responses to any changes (the modelling assumes no waning of immunity, no novel variants other than B.1.1.7 and no change in adherence following vaccination).” “Uncertainty is greater further into the future for all modelled scenarios, though this will reduce over time as more data are obtained on vaccine effectiveness. “Given the level of uncertainty, decisions about changes to restrictions are best made based on epidemiological data rather than based on predetermined dates.” SAGE said when all adults have been offered at least one dose of the vaccine ‘any further delay is not likely to have a significant impact on the scale of the subsequent resurgence’. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, mickbrown said: This thing had almost gone in August. Started to climb again in September, when the kids went back 100% correct schools & unis are exactly where the spread is, have no doubt lockdown 4 coming and just because Boris promised schools would be back March 8th. Edited February 22, 2021 by Mounts Kipper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, mickbrown said: Is it a job requirement of a journalist to have a speech impediment? There is an uproar when a jokey question gets asked in HOC but when a journalist asks is the PM a 'gloomster' that is ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Zico said: Well you did say they will plummet SAGE don't agree, see below One thing this last year has taught me is not to get your hopes up So I'm not pinning my hopes on having a pint in April There's still too many unknowns Which is why doing anything before anyone considered a priority has had one jab is asking for trouble "Even in the best case scenario SPI-M estimates that ‘at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths would occur under the new scenarios’ in the UK. The SAGE minutes state: “These scenarios show an epidemic resurgence which results in a substantial number of hospital admissions and deaths (high confidence). “There remains significant uncertainty about the scale and timing of such a resurgence. “Key uncertainties include vaccine effectiveness (against infection as well as severe disease), waning immunity, the emergence of novel variants, the extent of any seasonal factors, and behavioural responses to any changes (the modelling assumes no waning of immunity, no novel variants other than B.1.1.7 and no change in adherence following vaccination).” “Uncertainty is greater further into the future for all modelled scenarios, though this will reduce over time as more data are obtained on vaccine effectiveness. “Given the level of uncertainty, decisions about changes to restrictions are best made based on epidemiological data rather than based on predetermined dates.” SAGE said when all adults have been offered at least one dose of the vaccine ‘any further delay is not likely to have a significant impact on the scale of the subsequent resurgence’. Ok, mate I do get it, honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted February 22, 2021 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Escobarp said: No you clearly said anyone who can’t have the vaccine should sit and wait around. So because I can’t have it I should put my life on hold while everyone else cracks on yes? Can't or won't? If clinically proven exemptions are a thing, then fine But people who refuse it because they just don't want it are the lowest priority for me They shouldn't be allowed to crack on putting themselves or others at risk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted February 22, 2021 Site Supporter Share Posted February 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, mickbrown said: Is it a job requirement of a journalist to have a speech impediment? A schpeech impediment? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, mickbrown said: A massive coincidence? History will help us For example, the massive surge in December; what’s your narrative for that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickbrown Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, boltondiver said: History will help us For example, the massive surge in December; what’s your narrative for that? Mutant elves? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Zico said: Can't or won't? If clinically proven exemptions are a thing, then fine But people who refuse it because they just don't want it are the lowest priority for me They shouldn't be allowed to crack on putting themselves or others at risk That isn’t what you said. I can have it. But chances are I might well die. I’ve less chance of dying from covid so I will take my chance on that front. agree anyone who isn’t having it cos they are an anti vaccer or whatever can just fuck off. Pricks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not in Crawley Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, mickbrown said: This thing had almost gone in August. Started to climb again in September, when the kids went back I know, but with the data that does chime with a lot of other things going back. I'm totally not a scientist and really happy to be proven wrong. Although, all our efforts should be behind getting kids back to school before anything else. Schools are a relatively safe environment, teaching is not a high risk profession as the data is saying. I just think its not quite as simple as September + schools = spike. Our lives don't work like that, the data doesn't massively show that. Which is why the gvt are right with their stages. Thank god they've stop thinking about tiers though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Notwithstanding everything, I do like the lockstep approach, with proper reviews as we go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Chris Whitty just explained the schools thing really well and passionately as a journalist had misquoted him on the subject previously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not in Crawley Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, mickbrown said: 11 minutes ago, mickbrown said: A massive coincidence? In data, that's called convergence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L/H White Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Traf said: Not yet, but fingers crossed. People forget that us being allowed to travel doesn't mean we can travel. Lots of countries don't/won't want us in. My Ashes trip is off, as Australia are 99% not re-opening the borders until 2022. Any idea what Norway are doing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ani said: Chris Whitty just explained the schools thing really well and passionately as a journalist had misquoted him on the subject previously. He's relying on Easter holiday to be a firebreak. I think he knows it’s a major major risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not in Crawley Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 If the gvt pressure TFL to be more flexible about their inflexible pricing. Then I'm tory through and through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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