Coronavirus

[Rudy]

1 minute ago, Sweep said:

As it's only tramps, peasants and scutters who drink Holts, because they can't afford a decent pint, then it's no surprise really is it

How very dare you. I am a thatchers gold drinking toe rag 

[peelyfeet]

22 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

You don’t need to sample everyone to come up with an accurate measure of what’s going on 

I think the TV ratings are done off a panel of say 5,000 households 

Kantar use a panel of 10,000

both are accurate to within 1% 

700 might not be quite enough but it will be indicative within a few % points either way no doubt. Track another 4k to 5k and it will be extremely accurate 

You need to have a standardised method of measurement though, which we haven't got yet - the claim is that the number of folk being traced in pubs is falsley low at the moment because it's miles harder to trace there than schools, for example.

It's like trying to count how many pigeons there are in a park - if you do it at night you cant see the fuckers, so you'll count less than in the day.

What is needed is a control, which hasn't been added to the figures yet - how many folk have we got the records for in school - almost 100% I bet,  and we know how long they've been there, who they sat next to, how long for  - how many folk have we got records for in the pubs - I doubt it's anywhere near 100%, and we know pretty much fuck all about how long folk were near each other.  

So - if you wanted to produce that pie chart more accuratley, you'd add multipliers onto the venues where we had the least data, which would push pubs and restaurants % up a lot and bring schools and hospitals etc down a lot. 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Sweep]

Myself and Mrs Sweep went out for some food las night, they wouldn't let us through the door until we'd zapped the QR code with our NHS app  - that's the way forward, and the only way we can get an accurate measurement. You will get some bells though who refuse, because they'll say "I don't want the authorities knowing where I am"  -  yes Brian from Harwood, MI5 are really interested where you're going for something to eat when you're not at your job digging holes"

[birch-chorley]

11 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

You need to have a standardised method of measurement though, which we haven't got yet - the claim is that the number of folk being traced in pubs is falsley low at the moment because it's miles harder to trace there than schools, for example.

It's like trying to count how many pigeons there are in a park - if you do it at night you cant see the fuckers, so you'll count less.

What is needed is a control, which hasn't been added to the figures yet - how many folk have we got the records for in school - almost 100% I bet,  and we know how long they've been there, who they sat next to, how long for  - how many folk have we got records for in the pubs - I doubt it's anywhere near 100%, and we know pretty much fuck all about how long folk were near each other.  

So - if you wanted to produce that pie chart more accuratley, you'd add multipliers onto the venues where we had the least data, which would push pubs and restaurants % up a lot and bring schools and hospitals etc down a lot. 

 

 

 

 

Your original point seemed to imply that you will need to trace ALL 130k positives to have an accurate indication 

I don’t believe that to be true, if a panel of 10k is accurate to a population of 66m then a sample of 700 should give you an accurate representation of 130k 

Might not be fully accurate for the reasons you have pointed out but indicative all the same. If that sample has it at 2% then I’d imagine worst case it was 5%, still a small number of the overall 

[Carlos]

9 minutes ago, Sweep said:

 "I don't want the authorities knowing where I am"  -  yes Brian from Harwood, MI5 are really interested where you're going for something to eat when you're not at your job digging holes"

As they posted on Facebook, which in no way tracks you.

[Casino]

13 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Myself and Mrs Sweep went out for some food las night, they wouldn't let us through the door until we'd zapped the QR code with our NHS app  - that's the way forward, and the only way we can get an accurate measurement. You will get some bells though who refuse, because they'll say "I don't want the authorities knowing where I am"  -  yes Brian from Harwood, MI5 are really interested where you're going for something to eat when you're not at your job digging holes"

My names not Brian and I dont dig holes

[Sweep]

2 minutes ago, Casino said:

My names not Brian and I dont dig holes

Obviously not, but why do you reckon Brian (who is excellent at digging holes) really doesn't want to get involved in the track and trace?  - surely it's only going to ever be as good as the information put into it, if half the population can't be arsed, then what's the point?

[Spider]

If the government want to know which pub I've been in that's fine.

If my missus was following track and trace that'd be different.

I honestly don't see the issue in downloading it. It's like wearing a mask - probably works, isn't a hassle.

[peelyfeet]

1 hour ago, birch-chorley said:

Your original point seemed to imply that you will need to trace ALL 130k positives to have an accurate indication 

I don’t believe that to be true, if a panel of 10k is accurate to a population of 66m then a sample of 700 should give you an accurate representation of 130k 

Might not be fully accurate for the reasons you have pointed out but indicative all the same. If that sample has it at 2% then I’d imagine worst case it was 5%, still a small number of the overall 

 It's only indicative if the way you count is standardised, or you add accurate multipliers for the difference in counting methods. Without those you cant read anything into the figures. If there are circumstances that enable counting to be easier, you have to take account for the extent of the ease. 

So what do we multiply pubs by 2, 10,  40 - I have no idea, and I bet nobody does.

You'd have to survey a load of pubs, see what % of people leave the correct contact details, monitor folk whilst inside, then, 3 days later, ask them the names of folk they were sat close to and for how long and see how accurate their responses where - never going to happen. The app however, will do this a bit better.

Schools,  Hospitals and Care homes  are more comparable because they count in a reliable similar way and are used to measuring and keeping reliable records - a pen and paper filled in by some vistors in some pubs isnt comparable.

The govmt didnt publish the %, it was the Hospitality Union.  They could have published another pie chart that showed the data below, taken from the same govmt publication, but they didnt choose to, I'm assuming because it doesnt look as good.

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Spider said:

If the government want to know which pub I've been in that's fine.

If my missus was following track and trace that'd be different.

I honestly don't see the issue in downloading it. It's like wearing a mask - probably works, isn't a hassle.

There’s no I in team

[Escobarp]

26 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Obviously not, but why do you reckon Brian (who is excellent at digging holes) really doesn't want to get involved in the track and trace?  - surely it's only going to ever be as good as the information put into it, if half the population can't be arsed, then what's the point?

Correct. But people are breaking the law and don’t want the authorities to have proof of that. That’s basically the nuts and bolts of it as highlighted on here last night. 
 

so we may as well scrap it cos some folk can’t be arsed and some folk are covering their arses. It’s why we are where we are. But let’s blame the government instead of being held accountable. Couldn’t make it up. 

[peelyfeet]

2 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Correct. But people are breaking the law and don’t want the authorities to have proof of that. That’s basically the nuts and bolts of it as highlighted on here last night. 
 

so we may as well scrap it cos some folk can’t be arsed and some folk are covering their arses. It’s why we are where we are. But let’s blame the government instead of being held accountable. Couldn’t make it up. 

according to the modeling done by Oxford Uni, if at least 15% of the population use it, it will significantly reduce deaths - its over 12million downloads so far I think, so we're well over.

Only 3 million frogs have  downloaded there's apparently, since June

 

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

 

[Escobarp]

17 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

according to the modeling done by Oxford Uni, if at least 15% of the population use it, it will significantly reduce deaths - its over 12million downloads so far I think, so we're well over.

Only 3 million frogs have  downloaded there's apparently, since June

 

I’ve downloaded both Scottish and English versions. I have no issue with it. I have nothing to hide so no need to worry 

[peelyfeet]

6 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

 

Good stuff, that 

[Gonk]

1 hour ago, Sweep said:

close down all social media, they've managed to do it in China, so we could do it here. Let's be honest, nobody is going to have a worse life if they can't get on Twitter and TikTok

Some dipshits only live for these nowadays

 

[peelyfeet]

71 today. Will be 150 in 2 weeks based on last few days case numbers.

 

[embankment]

3 hours ago, Rudy said:

How very dare you. I am a thatchers gold drinking toe rag 

Put ya tod away Rudy

[Rudy]

6 minutes ago, embankment said:

Put ya tod away Rudy

[Zico]

so them graphs at the briefing

the spike in infections didn't look good

it's late teens / early 20s doing all the spreading

and the old ones getting admitted to hospital

millenial pricks

[little whitt]

7 hours ago, Spider said:

Realistically, there is only 1 way to get rid of corona

We have a national lockdown for 3 weeks that includes EVERYONE.

People are told to stock up on food, medicine and bog roll, and anyone leaving their houses is arrested and jailed. rewards for grassing of £1,000.

No one in the country, no one out. borders completely shut

after 3 (or 4) weeks, it will have gone. Then you isolate everyone entering the country in detention centres for 3 weeks, no exceptions.

Not the lockdown we had in March, I mean a fucking lockdown. You get in your house and you fucking stay there. No exercise, no going out the door.

We live like a nuclear bomb has gone off for 3 weeks.

But then, then - back to absolute normal.

Would you do it? I know I would.

im in sounds like a plan

but what about them lot in the Dingeys coming over from France 1000 a day 

[Escobarp]

3 minutes ago, little whitt said:

im in sounds like a plan

but what about them lot in the Dingeys coming over from France 1000 a day 

And the rayguns who won’t do it. JSL

[Escobarp]

6 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

so them graphs at the briefing

the spike in infections didn't look good

it's late teens / early 20s doing all the spreading

and the old ones getting admitted to hospital

millenial pricks

And some On here think it’s ok and let it happen in their own house. Mind blowing 

[stevieb]

For context most of the the graphs only seemed to show data starting from July (end of peak 1). So the high points visible on the graph were low in the overall peak. 

It made it look like we were hurtling up to previous highs when we are not. 

Would have been less concern from the population if we were shown the full YTD data but I suppose that's the intention. 

[fatolive]

19 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

so them graphs at the briefing

the spike in infections didn't look good

it's late teens / early 20s doing all the spreading

and the old ones getting admitted to hospital

millenial pricks

Millennials are those born between 1981 and 1996 .

just saying, as I presumed it was people born in or around the new millennium, but apparently not, teens these days are generation z ( I think )