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4 hours ago, peelyfeet said:

The infection rate in Bolton has gone up from 27 per 100,000 to 238 per 100,000 in 3 weeks. 900% increase or a doubling every week for 3 weeks. 

Hospitalisations up from 2 to 30 odd (I'm guessing, as it was 23 last thursday) in the same period.

Infection rates all over the Northwest are following Bolton.

Vallance even said in the briefing, "this is not a prediction" , its what could happen if current infection rates double every week.

What do you think they should have said instead?

 

 

 

I have no problem increasing the lock down in areas like Bolton, I have an issue with them showing a graph that clearly over exagerates not only what is happening across the U.K. but also is completetly at odds with what is happening in France or Spain, which is the pathway we are apparently following.   

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15 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I have no problem increasing the lock down in areas like Bolton, I have an issue with them showing a graph that clearly over exagerates not only what is happening across the U.K. but also is completetly at odds with what is happening in France or Spain, which is the pathway we are apparently following.   

The 50,000 was very clearly explained to be what might happen if we changed nothing. But funnily enough, no-one else around the world is changing nothing and carrying on like it’s all over. France and Spain have seen what is happening and already introduced the measures which should hopefully prevent it.

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49 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I have no problem increasing the lock down in areas like Bolton, I have an issue with them showing a graph that clearly over exagerates not only what is happening across the U.K. but also is completetly at odds with what is happening in France or Spain, which is the pathway we are apparently following.   

Nobody catches all the cases - we were catching less than 10% back in spring - the ONS and ZOE think we are missing 30- 40% now. Spain and France are testing less than us, so they will probably be missing more than us. 

It's impossible to predict exactly, you do the best that you can.  

Inpatients have gone from a flat 50 ish for months, up to 200 in 15 days, again showing a doubling roughly every week. 

They aint pulled the figures out of their back pockets - they think the epidemic is doubling roughly every 7 days at the moment - if ("And that's a big IF", as Vallance said) this continued, unabated,  doubling every 7 days from now means 49K cases by 13th October. 

Folk need to understand that exponential growth is a bastard where this virus is concerned, it creeps up on you, takes a few weeks for you to see it, then ages to get back down and if you get the calculations slightly wrong, all it does it push the big numbers back a few days.

Imagine whitty and valance are over exagerating by 40%, which is an extra 3 days, and so doubling is happening every 10 days - that still means we get to 49K recorded cases per day (whilst still missing shitloads), but in 40 days instead of 28, on the 25th October instead of the 13th.

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20 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

Nobody catches all the cases - we were catching less than 10% back in spring - the ONS and ZOE think we are missing 30- 40% now. Spain and France are testing less than us, so they will probably be missing more than us. 

It's impossible to predict exactly, you do the best that you can.  

Inpatients have gone from a flat 50 ish for months, up to 200 in 15 days, again showing a doubling roughly every week. 

They aint pulled the figures out of their back pockets - they think the epidemic is doubling roughly every 7 days at the moment - if ("And that's a big IF", as Vallance said) this continued, unabated,  doubling every 7 days from now means 49K cases by 13th October. 

Folk need to understand that exponential growth is a bastard where this virus is concerned, it creeps up on you, takes a few weeks for you to see it, then ages to get back down and if you get the calculations slightly wrong, all it does it push the big numbers back a few days.

Imagine whitty and valance are over exagerating by 40%, which is an extra 3 days, and so doubling is happening every 10 days - that still means we get to 49K recorded cases per day (whilst still missing shitloads), but in 40 days instead of 28, on the 25th October instead of the 13th.

don't forget they all live in the same house on the mediterrean 

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1 hour ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I have no problem increasing the lock down in areas like Bolton, I have an issue with them showing a graph that clearly over exagerates not only what is happening across the U.K. but also is completetly at odds with what is happening in France or Spain, which is the pathway we are apparently following.   

The graph illustrated what is happening now, and why it needs to be addressed with new measures. Without them, their reasoning makes perfect sense.

A very similar analogy exists at the Wanderers. If we continue as we are, we will get relegated.

Therefore its incumbent upon the manager, and players to improve the situation by introducing more points into the system.

What we don’t need is a graph to show us what will happen if the points don't materialise. 

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41 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

The graph illustrated what is happening now, and why it needs to be addressed with new measures. Without them, their reasoning makes perfect sense.

A very similar analogy exists at the Wanderers. If we continue as we are, we will get relegated.

Therefore its incumbent upon the manager, and players to improve the situation by introducing more points into the system.

What we don’t need is a graph to show us what will happen if the points don't materialise. 

If Patrick Vallance did footie stats;

 

Bolton, played 2, lost 2. Going down having lost all 46.

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10 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

If Patrick Vallance did footie stats;

 

Bolton, played 2, lost 2. Going down having lost all 46.

So what you’re saying is that Vallance is Anewman?

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1 hour ago, Boby Brno said:

In the last week daily cases in the UK have risen by 58%. At the same rate, unchecked, we will be at 48,000 in 5 weeks. That’s just simple maths. It’s not politics, it’s not project fear. 

maybe not

Like the virus killed of the oldies first time around, maybe its infecting the careless this time

We might run out of careless types

Prob not explaining this well, but id guess your chances of catching it wont be reduced cos of the new measures

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2 hours ago, Boby Brno said:

In the last week daily cases in the UK have risen by 58%. At the same rate, unchecked, we will be at 48,000 in 5 weeks. That’s just simple maths. It’s not politics, it’s not project fear. 

It isn't fact, though, just maths, as you say. Based on a short time, with only France and Spain by way of comparison. Poor. Skewed.

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4 hours ago, tyldesley_white said:

Ani, I posted this on Thursday

 

On the subject off a vaccine, 2 of the 3 drug companies have come out this evening ( mainly because Trump is still pushing his timeline)  and give their version of what they expect it to happen ,Moderna have said that if everything goes to plan the trials could be over end of October early November, Pfizer have said mid November, but and this is the big but by the time all off the data has been collected and analysed you will be looking at the April to May timeline for a vaccine. AstraZeneca have not said anything but the trials that have just restarted have only restarted in the UK, the FDA here at the moment have not given approval for the trail to restart

Fair enough had not seen that. But Valance certainly indicated earlier yesterday. 

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4 minutes ago, Casino said:

maybe not

Like the virus killed of the oldies first time around, maybe its infecting the careless this time

We might run out of careless types

Prob not explaining this well, but id guess your chances of catching it wont be reduced cos of the new measures

It’s called foresight based on the information available. Every man and his dog will be weighing in with the benefit of hindsight in a few weeks time. 
I’m only explaining the reasoning behind the figures quoted yesterday.

I’ve been sceptical about whether the increase in cases turn into the deaths we saw earlier in the year. I don’t know. What I do know is that we are where we were in March. The government got slated for locking down too late. What do they do now? Knowing the economic impact of lockdown.

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I understand the cynics are saying the figures used are not correct. 
 

If anyone who does not agree with 50k per day figure would be good enough to say what the number might be in say 4 weeks if we do nothing that should provide some balance. 
 

There was just short of 5000 today. Not expecting an exact number but just a rough idea of % up or down. No need to show you workings but a bit of the logic would be good. 

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9 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

It isn't fact, though, just maths, as you say. Based on a short time, with only France and Spain by way of comparison. Poor. Skewed.

What they arent telling us, is they already know roughly how many are going to be dying per day 2 -3 weeks from now. They know the current inpatient profiles and their % chance of survival, they know the treatment success rate, so bear that in mind. 

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1 minute ago, peelyfeet said:

What they arent telling us, is they already know roughly how many are going to be dying per day 2 -3 weeks from now. They know the current inpatient profiles and their % chance of survival, they know the treatment success rate, so bear that in mind. 

OK, will do.

Pehaps they could share that data with us?

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3 minutes ago, Casino said:

Not got a clue pal

Id prefer it wasnt these idiots running the show, mind

I’m not defending the government. Communication has been pathetic. Decisions? Who knows. Some say they should be harder, some say they have gone too far. If WW was a government, nothing would get done, too many differing views. Apart from Germany as I’ve said previously, every government has been criticised by its people. (there have been demonstrations in Germany though)

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5 minutes ago, Ani said:

I understand the cynics are saying the figures used are not correct. 
 

If anyone who does not agree with 50k per day figure would be good enough to say what the number might be in say 4 weeks if we do nothing that should provide some balance. 
 

There was just short of 5000 today. Not expecting an exact number but just a rough idea of % up or down. No need to show you workings but a bit of the logic would be good. 

They didn't agree the 50,000 themselves!

They just left it there so people wold remember that one slide.

 

If you project forward on the current trend, you are at 15,000/day

 

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