Coronavirus

[peelyfeet]

1 minute ago, Marc505 said:

It does worry me about what life altering issues all this will cause, physical and mental really.

Good mate of mine, same age as me, had covid in March/April and it has triggered "reactive arthritis" so he's shafted unless he takes medication and has injections in his elbows for the foreseeable future. 

There's increasing evidence that it is also reactivating the chicken pox/shingles virus, 8% of adults  with symptoms apparently, and more in kids. 

[peelyfeet]

 

1 hour ago, boltondiver said:

Apologies if posted previously

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925332/Evidence_pack_parliamentary_engagement.pdf

good stuff - on the first NW graph, you can see the fast rise in early Sept, then a slowing towards the end of sept - zoe thinks this plateaus for 2 weeks, although the last couple of days its started to go up again (but not as steeply). I bet if we could see the real infection figures for Bolton, they'd have slowed a lot over the previous few weeks compared to early sept, and I bet the rise in hospitalisations is slowing in Bolton now  - ill see if I can dig it out.

I think we'll see a significant slowing in the NW in a few weeks, then hopefully a reduction in about a month.

Edited October 9, 2020 by peelyfeet

[peelyfeet]

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Can only see up to end of Sept - but it looks like its slowing in Bolton to me.

Total reported covid admisions and in-hosptal diagnoses of covid per week

Royal Bolton

26 aug - 1 sept     5

2 sept - 8 sept     11

9 sept - 15 sept    37

16 sept -22 sept   41 

23 sept - 30sept   48        

so, the last 2 weeks of sept,  the increase went up by 29%

first 2 weeks of sept it went up 740%

that's a massive decline in the rate of increase.

Hopsital admissions are about 10 days after infection -

This data suggests something happened in Bolton in the 2nd week of Sept onwards,  that has slowed the rate of increase in hospitalisations a hell of a lot.

The Bolton restrictions were revealed on 8th Sept - I dont think this is a coincidence, and I hope I'm correct, because it means the restrictions might have worked.

As I've said a few times, the issue we are going to have for the next few weeks is the majority of the country haven't had the same restrictons as us, so we will see cases, hospitalisations, and then deaths totals go up - and the media will present it as a frenzy - but to me, it looks like Bolton is stabilising, and I expect further restrictions will make the rates in Bolton drop soon.  Hope I'm right.

Edited October 9, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Tonge moor green jacket]

3 hours ago, Casino said:

And a bigger plenty aren't

 

So what?

You'll be along soon after complaining that the nhs can't cope with the extra treatment required. On top of all the other issues and backlogs.

Majority dont have cancer, flu, etc. Doesn't mean we dont make efforts to prevent and treat them.

[Spider]

Edinburgh Woolen mills gone. 24,000 jobs.

cor.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

2 hours ago, Mr Grey said:

How do you know?

Plenty of examples around already, is it worth being glib about it until many cases show it to be true?

Or, take precautions to slow the virus down.

Small pox and polio are a couple of nasty diseases, that apart from potentially killing people, can leave folk with serious ongoing issues. Thankfully efforts were made to prevent then eradicate them.

[peelyfeet]

22 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

Agreed you should take it very seriously because your in a high risk category, but that shouldn't apply to everyone.

It's a very divided subject at the moment, and from what I see at work, it's getting people down, some feel that they have nothing to look forward to, especially if the Government start closing down the hospitality and decapitated tourism sector, surely there's got to be a balance.

It also need stating more clearly to the general public that if you are obese, if you are suffering from a condition that Covid-19 will affect you more than others, some don't seem to care and what to go about their lives no matter what, but that would be their choice.

Something has got to go.

Shutting pubs and restaurants and cinemas and leisure facilities, stopping holidays, telling peole they can't go to their mate's or families house etc is shite for everyone, because thats where we have most of our fun,  but they're also the places where we mix with a wider variety of people, and the government class them as non essential when compared to food shopping, school, essential services work.

If Farrelli has to take it seriously, then so does everyone else in his family, his work colleagues if he has any, and all the folk they come into contact with. Farrellis risk is increased by the actions of everyone he comes into contact with. If he has school kids, then it's the familes of all the school kids in the same contact bubble as his. What should he do - wear a mask in his own house and distance from everybody in his household until vaccine time next summer? - It's very difficult to protect yourself if you've got other people in your house going to work, shops, school, etc, because you are relying on all the people they meet also being careful.  

 

Edited October 9, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Tonge moor green jacket]

5 minutes ago, Spider said:

Edinburgh Woolen mills gone. 24,000 jobs.

cor.

Hardly surprising. One in the local garden centre. Bought a few items and they change shape after washing!

Virtually no one in there, apart from the odd crusty browsing.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Spider said:

Edinburgh Woolen mills gone. 24,000 jobs.

cor.

Billionaire owner pulled the plug?

[peelyfeet]

1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Hardly surprising. One in the local garden centre. Bought a few items and they change shape after washing!

Virtually no one in there, apart from the odd crusty browsing.

Edinburgh woollen mill is the only place in Ambleside that sells undies.

If you ever shit your kecks in Ambleside your'e fucked now.

 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

1 minute ago, peelyfeet said:

Edinburgh woollen mill is the only place in Ambleside that sells undies.

If you ever shit your kecks in Ambleside your'e fucked now.

 

Go commando. Do a Bear Grylls and wash your arse in windermere.

[Spider]

2 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Billionaire owner pulled the plug?

Possibly

But Covid is the perfect excuse.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

3 minutes ago, Spider said:

Possibly

But Covid is the perfect excuse.

Biggish Dave was right.

[Spider]

If we were to just crack on, at what point would we admit there was a problem assuming infections rise - which we surely all agree they would?

Do we wait until hospitals are full?

[Zico]

1 minute ago, Spider said:

If we were to just crack on, at what point would we admit there was a problem assuming infections rise - which we surely all agree they would?

Do we wait until hospitals are full?

last month

[peelyfeet]

3 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Go commando. Do a Bear Grylls and wash your arse in windermere.

Or open up an underpants superstore right in the middle of Ambleside.

Ullswater Undercrackers

 

 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

Just now, peelyfeet said:

Or open up an underpants superstore right in the middle of Ambleside.

Ullswater Undercrackers

 

 

Must be a market for quality anti chaffing jobs for all the walkers.

[Mounts Kipper]

56 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Can only see up to end of Sept - but it looks like its slowing in Bolton to me.

Total reported covid admisions and in-hosptal diagnoses of covid per week

Royal Bolton

26 aug - 1 sept     5

2 sept - 8 sept     11

9 sept - 15 sept    37

16 sept -22 sept   41 

23 sept - 30sept   48        

so, the last 2 weeks of sept,  the increase went up by 29%

first 2 weeks of sept it went up 740%

that's a massive decline in the rate of increase.

Hopsital admissions are about 10 days after infection -

This data suggests something happened in Bolton in the 2nd week of Sept onwards,  that has slowed the rate of increase in hospitalisations a hell of a lot.

The Bolton restrictions were revealed on 8th Sept - I dont think this is a coincidence, and I hope I'm correct, because it means the restrictions might have worked.

As I've said a few times, the issue we are going to have for the next few weeks is the majority of the country haven't had the same restrictons as us, so we will see cases, hospitalisations, and then deaths totals go up - and the media will present it as a frenzy - but to me, it looks like Bolton is stabilising, and I expect further restrictions will make the rates in Bolton drop soon.  Hope I'm right.

Fuck the % the numbers are ridiculously low. It looks like over reaction to me, in fact it beggars belief. 

[Spider]

Just now, Mounts Kipper said:

Fuck the % the numbers are ridiculously low. It looks like over reaction to me, in fact it beggars belief. 

Remember when you said our numbers would never be as high as Italy?

Just saying, you don't have a perfect record with predictions.

I don't wholly disagree with the notion of cracking on, but to simply say this is now an over reaction is ludicrous. Hindsight alone tells us not to fuck with covid.

Fortunately, you aren't making the rules.

[Mounts Kipper]

Sturgeon on again, promising more money from U.K. government, she’s loving this shit, lapping up these restrictions. Utter loon. 

[Mounts Kipper]

1 minute ago, Spider said:

Remember when you said our numbers would never be as high as Italy?

Just saying, you don't have a perfect record with predictions.

I don't wholly disagree with the notion of cracking on, but to simply say this is now an over reaction is ludicrous. Hindsight alone tells us not to fuck with covid.

Fortunately, you aren't making the rules.

I was wrong on that admittedly, but we are locking down when there’s 48 people being admitted to hospital per week, how many are in intensive care? That’s the marker and why lockdown was justified earlier this year, we didn’t use the nightingale centres then, can see us needing them now. 

[Spider]

1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I was wrong on that admittedly, but we are locking down when there’s 48 people being admitted to hospital per week, how many are in intensive care? That’s the marker and why lockdown was justified earlier this year, we didn’t use the nightingale centres then, can see us needing them now. 

So you think we should let this run through the population and utilise the Nightingales?

[peelyfeet]

1 minute ago, Mr Grey said:

I get that and that is all very well, but surely we need to put things in place that people will adhere to, if the Government start putting draconian measures in place and start telling people how to live their lives and behave, people are going to rebel, they, and that includes myself don't want to be living under rules if a dictatorship. 

Places need to open, people need to go places, people need to live their lives, also people need to be more careful and to be more responsible. Some won't and unfortunately there's always going to be a group of people in the irresponsible category. 

I was talking to lady from finance this morning (both wearing mask and face shields), her MIL passed away in April with Covid, she was very I'll and it seems Covid finished her off, she is pretty level headed, she tells the students to get their mask on etc... but she also thinks that closing everything down or having another lockdown isn't good for people in general, and she clearly knows how dangerous covid can be. I've said it before it's about balance and personal responsibility.

I think people perspectives become more relaxed when the virus hasn't touched them for a while, and changes as it gets nearer - we had a football dad catch it a few weeks ago - he was stood chatting with  groups of other dads over several days previous  - next training sesion everyone had masks on distancing, some stayed in their cars, some didnt turn up, some were worried that they'd caught it from him. 

I had a work colleague die of it a few weeks ago, most of the blokes who worked with him are taking it more serioulsy.

[Mounts Kipper]

1 minute ago, Spider said:

So you think we should let this run through the population and utilise the Nightingales?

We should continue as we are keeping business open, using best practice, follow the current guidelines and in the unlikely event hospitals become overwhelmed use the nightingales. 

[peelyfeet]

9 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I was wrong on that admittedly, but we are locking down when there’s 48 people being admitted to hospital per week, how many are in intensive care? That’s the marker and why lockdown was justified earlier this year, we didn’t use the nightingale centres then, can see us needing them now. 

48 in Bolton Royal is a lot per week - its 192 a month 

It's slowing but not decreasing. 

Until it decreases, the beds fill up because some folk are in for months. 48 in this week doesnt mean 48 dead or out.

They wont rest with increasing restrictions until it starts to go down, because we dont have the beds for a continuous 48 a week.

Edited October 9, 2020 by peelyfeet