peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Dr John thinks the Great Barrington declaration is a bit shit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jules_darby Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevieb Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, jules_darby said: Data manipulation at its greatest all this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, stevieb said: Data manipulation at its greatest all this. For what purpose? How many do you reckon there are in the scheme of things, admitted to hospital with a broken leg or something else, who also happen to test positive for covid at the same time, with the pcr test that supposedly only works for a few days after infection. They have to be tested and put on covid wards to protect all the other non covid inpatients. What should we do with them, not record them at all or further subdivide the charts. We already knock off those who die after 28 days. Do we remove them from the discharged from hospital figures too? I bet if you looked into it, the numbers would be inconsequential in the scheme if things. I doubt there's some politicians looking to inflate covid figures by including coincidental cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birch-chorley Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 42 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: Dr John thinks the Great Barrington declaration is a bit shit. Loads on health, however not a single mention of the Economy (unless I missed it?) From the start this has been a balancing act about Health vs Economy, if you only look at it through one lens then you might as well not bother Let’s say the correct course is to do what we are doing, continually smash our economy to pieces until we get a vaccine (then hope it works). how long do we give this plan before we have to abandon it to protect the economy? We couldn’t carry on like this for 5 or 10 years, even 2 is unthinkable. How long do we prioritise health for? For me, it’s time the economy comes first, if you smash your economy then you won’t have a healthcare system that’s anywhere as good as what it was, similar for education and Welfare If we carry on like this for 2 or even 3 years then many more people will die unnecessarily in the proceeding decades from the impact this will have on public services than we saved now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevieb Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: For what purpose? How many do you reckon there are in the scheme of things, admitted to hospital with a broken leg or something else, who also happen to test positive for covid at the same time, with the pcr test that supposedly only works for a few days after infection. They have to be tested and put on covid wards to protect all the other non covid inpatients. What should we do with them, not record them at all or further subdivide the charts. We already knock off those who die after 28 days. Do we remove them from the discharged from hospital figures too? I bet if you looked into it, the numbers would be inconsequential in the scheme if things. I doubt there's some politicians looking to inflate covid figures by including coincidental cases. At the start of this they passed legislation that you could be put as a covid death without a test if covid was suspected. I don't think we'll ever get clear data. For what purpose... Fuck knows. Doctors having less paperwork to do probably...Ushering in a new world order of our reptilian overlords... Possibly 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Just now, birch-chorley said: Loads on health, however not a single mention of the Economy (unless I missed it?) From the start this has been a balancing act about Health vs Economy, if you only look at it through one lens then you might as well not bother Let’s say the correct course is to do what we are doing, continually smash our economy to pieces until we get a vaccine (then hope it works). how long do we give this plan before we have to abandon it to protect the economy? We couldn’t carry on like this for 5 or 10 years, even 2 is unthinkable. How long do we prioritise health for? For me, it’s time the economy comes first, if you smash your economy then you won’t have a healthcare system that’s anywhere as good as what it was, similar for education and Welfare If we carry on like this for 2 or even 3 years then many more people will die unnecessarily in the proceeding decades from the impact this will have on public services than we saved now He's not an economist. Whatever we do will have effects on the economy. Shielding the vulnerable millions won't create an automatic rebound, you're taking 20 odd million people out of normal circumstances for ages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not in Crawley Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 I know I keep going on about it, but more or less came up trumps again last night (I swear this thread would be about five pages if folk gave it a listen) the bit on the spreadsheet fuck up is excellent https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000n4vq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevieb Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Medical practitioners are required to certify causes of death “to the best of their knowledge and belief”. Without diagnostic proof, if appropriate and to avoid delay, medical practitioners can circle ‘2’ in the MCCD (“information from post-mortem may be available later”) or tick Box B on the reverse of the MCCD for ante-mortem investigations. For example, if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID- 19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death, tick Box B and then share the test result when it becomes available. In the circumstances of there being no swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Just now, stevieb said: At the start of this they passed legislation that you could be put as a covid death without a test if covid was suspected. I don't think we'll ever get clear data. For what purpose... Fuck knows. Doctors having less paperwork to do probably...Ushering in a new world order of our reptilian overlords... Possibly 🤣 The reasoning behind that was for logistical purposes though, to make it easier to get covid numbers quickly, to enable responses to be faster it wasn't to purposely inflate death numbers. Clear data is very difficult to get because tberes so much nuance. Wake me up in fucking spring. Anyway off to watch the sprog play for bwfc v Oldham they're actually letting us watch, first time since Feb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Not in Crawley said: I know I keep going on about it, but more or less came up trumps again last night (I swear this thread would be about five pages if folk gave it a listen) the bit on the spreadsheet fuck up is excellent https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000n4vq I'll have a go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, birch-chorley said: Loads on health, however not a single mention of the Economy (unless I missed it?) From the start this has been a balancing act about Health vs Economy, if you only look at it through one lens then you might as well not bother Let’s say the correct course is to do what we are doing, continually smash our economy to pieces until we get a vaccine (then hope it works). how long do we give this plan before we have to abandon it to protect the economy? We couldn’t carry on like this for 5 or 10 years, even 2 is unthinkable. How long do we prioritise health for? For me, it’s time the economy comes first, if you smash your economy then you won’t have a healthcare system that’s anywhere as good as what it was, similar for education and Welfare If we carry on like this for 2 or even 3 years then many more people will die unnecessarily in the proceeding decades from the impact this will have on public services than we saved now The epidemic will end. The degree of mess in the economy could last a very long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boby Brno Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Perhaps the best way to measure the impact of Covid is excess deaths. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending25september2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birch-chorley Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, boltondiver said: The epidemic will end. The degree of mess in the economy could last a very long time. Be keen to know when it will end though Or more importantly when do we draw a line in the sand and put the economy before immediate health issues? The epidemic could go on for year’s, we can’t mess about like this for much longer The damage this will have on the economy is already great, it’s going to make 2008 look like a Teddy bears picnic in comparison. The whole 2008 crash had us go backwards by 7% GDP, we are already way beyond that and we haven’t reached the bottom Post 2008 health spending went from £118bn a year in 2010 to £134bn in 2020. Although it went up those ‘cuts’ to the NHS apparently meant 130,000 more people died unnecessarily than should have without the cuts.... https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/01/perfect-storm-austerity-behind-130000-deaths-uk-ippr-report How many will die over the next decade as a result of us paying for the economic damage of these measures? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Australia closing its borders until end 2021. They enjoy being locked up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted October 10, 2020 Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2020 25 minutes ago, Boby Brno said: Perhaps the best way to measure the impact of Covid is excess deaths. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending25september2020 Absolutely it is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted October 10, 2020 Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2020 25 minutes ago, birch-chorley said: Be keen to know when it will end though Or more importantly when do we draw a line in the sand and put the economy before immediate health issues? The epidemic could go on for year’s, we can’t mess about like this for much longer The damage this will have on the economy is already great, it’s going to make 2008 look like a Teddy bears picnic in comparison. The whole 2008 crash had us go backwards by 7% GDP, we are already way beyond that and we haven’t reached the bottom Post 2008 health spending went from £118bn a year in 2010 to £134bn in 2020. Although it went up those ‘cuts’ to the NHS apparently meant 130,000 more people died unnecessarily than should have without the cuts.... https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/01/perfect-storm-austerity-behind-130000-deaths-uk-ippr-report How many will die over the next decade as a result of us paying for the economic damage of these measures? We should have a vaccine next year at some point I would be more than happy to proceed with the measures that were in place in August The focus would have to be on policing the rules and ensure as strict adherence as possible Get the military involved if we have to, employ the jobless as covid enforcement officers, whatever is required to have a presence out there ensuring people and businesses are towing the line The only way we get on top or beat this till the vaccine is to implement and follow the fundamental rules of sanitation and distancing It requires a concerted effort from the all the public And that's why we're fucked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said: We should have a vaccine next year at some point I would be more than happy to proceed with the measures that were in place in August The focus would have to be on policing the rules and ensure as strict adherence as possible Get the military involved if we have to, employ the jobless as covid enforcement officers, whatever is required to have a presence out there ensuring people and businesses are towing the line The only way we get on top or beat this till the vaccine is to implement and follow the fundamental rules of sanitation and distancing It requires a concerted effort from the all the public And that's why we're fucked I don’t think we can rely on a vaccine working as well as we might hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boby Brno Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, boltondiver said: Australia closing its borders until end 2021. They enjoy being locked up. Shit! Wont be seeing my son anytime soon.😩 Hopefully get the last 2 Tests in, if it goes ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birch-chorley Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Just now, ZicoKelly said: We should have a vaccine next year at some point I would be more than happy to proceed with the measures that were in place in August The focus would have to be on policing the rules and ensure as strict adherence as possible Get the military involved if we have to, employ the jobless as covid enforcement officers, whatever is required to have a presence out there ensuring people and businesses are towing the line The only way we get on top or beat this till the vaccine is to implement and follow the fundamental rules of sanitation and distancing It requires a concerted effort from the all the public And that's why we're fucked Should have a vaccine next year, IF it comes and IF it works When do we draw a line in the sand and go for plan B if it doesn’t come or doesn’t work? How things were in August still means devastation for the economy. Lower GDP, lower tax receipts, more spending on jobless welfare etc. The impact this will have on the government’s ability to spend on services is horrific. I’d like to see the Guardians projection of what the cuts will mean for excess deaths to come, I’d wager the projection is we are going to lose more in the years to come than we have saved now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Boby Brno said: Shit! Wont be seeing my son anytime soon.😩 Hopefully get the last 2 Tests in, if it goes ahead. It’ll go ahead, TV money will ensure, but whether we can get there is looking less likely! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 minute ago, birch-chorley said: Should have a vaccine next year, IF it comes and IF it works When do we draw a line in the sand and go for plan B if it doesn’t come or doesn’t work? How things were in August still means devastation for the economy. Lower GDP, lower tax receipts, more spending on jobless welfare etc. The impact this will have on the government’s ability to spend on services is horrific. I’d like to see the Guardians projection of what the cuts will mean for excess deaths to come, I’d wager the projection is we are going to lose more in the years to come than we have saved now Plan B should be now, in my view. But they won’t The WHO are advising countries not to lockdown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted October 10, 2020 Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, birch-chorley said: Should have a vaccine next year, IF it comes and IF it works When do we draw a line in the sand and go for plan B if it doesn’t come or doesn’t work? How things were in August still means devastation for the economy. Lower GDP, lower tax receipts, more spending on jobless welfare etc. The impact this will have on the government’s ability to spend on services is horrific. I’d like to see the Guardians projection of what the cuts will mean for excess deaths to come, I’d wager the projection is we are going to lose more in the years to come than we have saved now The day after we find out it doesn't work and has caused a zombie uprising Everything was pretty much open in August wasn't it? If we carried on like that for 12 months with strict adherence to the rules, then would the economy not start to recover? We need to get into a mindset of sanitisation and safety etc, because it might happen again in a few years, and it might be worse next time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birch-chorley Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 minute ago, ZicoKelly said: The day after we find out it doesn't work and has caused a zombie uprising Everything was pretty much open in August wasn't it? If we carried on like that for 12 months with strict adherence to the rules, then would the economy not start to recover? We need to get into a mindset of sanitisation and safety etc, because it might happen again in a few years, and it might be worse next time I don’t believe everything was open, far from it Rules on large gatherings pretty much knackers all sport, music, festivals and theatre. Social distancing also means many businesses were only allowed to open on reduced capacity You weren’t allowed to travel any other country with over 20 cases per 1,000. That smashed the travel industry In terms of GDP data for August, the ONS has it -9.2% lower than February. The worst 2008 got was -7% and that was pretty much the worst performance since the Wall Street Crash in the 1920’s. The ONS said: "The level of output has not fully recovered from the record falls seen across March and April 2020, and is still 9.2% below the levels seen in February 2020, before the full impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic." And now we are taking the economy backwards yet again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boby Brno Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, boltondiver said: It’ll go ahead, TV money will ensure, but whether we can get there is looking less likely! MCG and SCG could be possible. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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