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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

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25 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

There is strong evidence you can get it more than once so herd immunity is pie in the sky.

The immunity should last at least 6 months, so in reality if the first wave back in March had hit 70% of the population then most of those people would still be immune now and the virus would struggle to grow in a second wave. I seem to recall Peely saying 70% immunity would see it off 

However that would have probably meant 300k to 400k more old people dying 

 

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2 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

If he says lockdown, then, ipso facto, you disagree it or think it’s not right

He said it wasn't a couple of weeks ago. The cock got there in the end but had to bullshit about tests whilst doing it. He can't help himself

Edited by mickbrown
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7 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

The immunity should last at least 6 months, so in reality if the first wave back in March had hit 70% of the population then most of those people would still be immune now and the virus would struggle to grow in a second wave. I seem to recall Peely saying 70% immunity would see it off 

However that would have probably meant 300k to 400k more old people dying 

 

yes and no  - if it hit people in March and April, and lasts six months......then they might not be immune now, as it's now 7-8 months later, or worse when the weather really turns in December and January, then possibly nobody from the first wave would still have immunity.

 

Obviously all massive guesswork from everybody at this stage, I was called go back and give Plasma again a couple of weeks ago, and they want me back in next week, so I've still got antibodies in my system, and that's 7 months since I had it, so who knows......I'd assume "immunity" if there is such a thing, and the period of time a person has it, will depend on their initial viral load, so it'll last longer with some than with others.

I must admit I'm not too happy to hear that there is talk that we may never be able to achieve some sort of herd immunity, as that would be a bit grim.

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11 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

He said it wasn't a couple of weeks ago. The cock got there in the end but had to bullshit about tests whilst doing it. He can't help himself

He said that he wouldn't be closing schools down as well.....give it another week, maybe two, and he'll definitely be closing down schools. If I was to guess, close them down mid-November, and kids to not return back to school until January

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9 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

The immunity should last at least 6 months, so in reality if the first wave back in March had hit 70% of the population then most of those people would still be immune now and the virus would struggle to grow in a second wave. I seem to recall Peely saying 70% immunity would see it off 

However that would have probably meant 300k to 400k more old people dying 

 

Not for over 60's, the reduction in antibodies is very quick in this age group.

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15 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

He said it wasn't a couple of weeks ago. The cock got there in the end but had to bullshit about tests whilst doing it. He can't help himself

So you agree with him

😁

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45 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Irony and you, eh?!

Hard to tell with you, I could take most of your posts with a large pinch of salt.

How is it looking regarding Sturgeon and Drakeford lockdowns a few weeks ago ? According to you and Mounts they were mad but now Boris is doing the same thing but for a longer period (late as usual).

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8 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

Not for over 60's, the reduction in antibodies is very quick in this age group.

How many have died after having it a second time then? I assume a few thousand deaths must fall into this category if what your saying is true? 

I doubt very many have died after contracting it a second time as things stand 

Perhaps this will be different next year 

You'd hope we have a vaccine by then though (if it works) 

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13 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

Not for over 60's, the reduction in antibodies is very quick in this age group.

According to this only 1 person in the world has died after having Covid a second time, to be fair to her she wasn’t in the best of health either by the sounds of it (cancer)...

https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/13/covid-patient-becomes-first-in-world-to-die-after-being-reinfected-13414646/
 

It goes onto say that only 1 American has tested positive twice 

Safe to say that a persons immunity must last a reasonable amount of time or we would have seen many many more second cases by now 

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13 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

How many have died after having it a second time then? I assume a few thousand deaths must fall into this category if what your saying is true? 

I doubt very many have died after contracting it a second time as things stand 

Perhaps this will be different next year 

You'd hope we have a vaccine by then though (if it works) 

We don't know as the antibodies study is limited and many people didn't get a confirmatory test in the first wave.  Of course it may not be significant but whilst there is doubt I believe we have to take these measures to protect the NHS and limit infections until a vaccine arrives.

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10 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

 

Safe to say that a persons immunity must last a reasonable amount of time or we would have seen many many more second cases by now 

Agree with that, I think I heard somewhere they know of only 24 people globally who have caught it twice, and they're even a bit skeptical about that number, as they suspect it's on the high side. I'd imagine that immunity must last a while.....we obviously don't know though, as we've only know about it for just about a year now. Maybe immunity lasts for ever, maybe a year, nobody knows at this stage

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2 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Agree with that, I think I heard somewhere they know of only 24 people globally who have caught it twice, and they're even a bit skeptical about that number, as they suspect it's on the high side. I'd imagine that immunity must last a while.....we obviously don't know though, as we've only know about it for just about a year now. Maybe immunity lasts for ever, maybe a year, nobody knows at this stage

That is highly unlikely based on the antibodies study (26% loss in antibodies in a few months is very fast).  That much we can speculate.  The most reasonable assessment is that some people, especially with compromised immune systems, will require six monthly boosters of any vaccine.  

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6 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Agree with that, I think I heard somewhere they know of only 24 people globally who have caught it twice, and they're even a bit skeptical about that number, as they suspect it's on the high side. I'd imagine that immunity must last a while.....we obviously don't know though, as we've only know about it for just about a year now. Maybe immunity lasts for ever, maybe a year, nobody knows at this stage

I’d agree that nobody knows 

I wouldn’t say herd immunity is ‘pie in the sky’ though as suggested above by @Farrelli

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2 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

I’d agree that nobody knows 

I wouldn’t say herd immunity is ‘pie in the sky’ though as suggested above by @Farrelli

Ok, well evidence so far suggests herd immunity is not happening anytime soon.  Until we know differently we have to control it by reduced contact, lockdowns and other methods.  It's shit but that is where we are unfortunately. 

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