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My uncle lost his battle to this in Royal Bolton this morning, so he will be one of today’s numbers.  last rites over the phone held by a nurse with no family there. made an exception yester

That was one of the loveliest things to ever happen. Stood in my garden sobbing like a baby! Proud to work for the NHS 👏👏👏👏❤️

I’ve sat with my mum who is slipping away, literally breathing her last today. She idolises the Queen, and whilst she didn’t in all likelihood hear that, I know she would have loved every single

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3 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Point of that post was to ask

does it prove restrictions work or are the restrictions up here not commensurate with the actual position?  

Very difficult to prove

The Govt said that the first lockdown saved many thousands of lives.

The latest restrictions show cases rising; perhaps they weren’t harsh enough, or maybe it’s just a seasonal virus? It is possible that, in the round, the lockdown and variants are more costly in economic, social and health metrics.

We’ll know someday

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1 minute ago, boltondiver said:

Very difficult to prove

The Govt said that the first lockdown saved many thousands of lives.

The latest restrictions show cases rising; perhaps they weren’t harsh enough, or maybe it’s just a seasonal virus? It is possible that, in the round, the lockdown and variants are more costly in economic, social and health metrics.

We’ll know someday

Latest restrictions have only just come in down there though really so there will be a lag? 
 

up here starting to see our local cases drop. But whether that would have happened anyway who knows 

 

was just interested in folks views. And to put a bit of context around the situation in Bolton compared to other parts of the uk 

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16 hours ago, Escobarp said:

Latest restrictions have only just come in down there though really so there will be a lag? 
 

 

I think as a rule of thumb, that you would expect 2 or 3 weeks of restrictions before generally you start to see cases coming down, which in reality means that any restrictions have to be in place for at least 6 weeks to see if they're working or not

Peely will be able to explain it better than I can, but it's fairly obviout

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1 minute ago, Sweep said:

I think as a rule of thumb, that you would expect 2 or 3 weeks of restrictions before generally you start to see cases coming down, which in reality means that any restrictions have to be in place for at least 6 weeks to see if they're working or not

Peely will be able to explain it better than I can, but it's fairly obviout

Yeah my thoughts that as well. 
 

where is @peelyfeet we’re devoid of anybody that knows what the fuck they are talking about here. 

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56 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Yeah my thoughts that as well. 
 

where is @peelyfeet we’re devoid of anybody that knows what the fuck they are talking about here. 

I think the surge we saw was in part due to students going back, certainly was in Leeds. I think this backed up by  cases continuing to grow but not seeing the same surge. Local paper just listed Leeds hot spots and student areas feature heavily. 

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11 minutes ago, Ani said:

I think the surge we saw was in part due to students going back, certainly was in Leeds. I think this backed up by  cases continuing to grow but not seeing the same surge. Local paper just listed Leeds hot spots and student areas feature heavily. 

And that it’s a seasonal respiratory virus

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"Atherton South West has emerged as Greater Manchester's new coronavirus hotspot."

😬

Astley Bridge in 2nd place, that's probably just the Asda tbf.

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2 hours ago, Ani said:

I think the surge we saw was in part due to students going back, certainly was in Leeds. I think this backed up by  cases continuing to grow but not seeing the same surge. Local paper just listed Leeds hot spots and student areas feature heavily. 

Definitely was the case in Nottingham, they tested every student so were bound to find higher numbers.

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Excellent piece in the Times today from Ex Department of Health Cheif Economist / SAGE member Barry Mccormick. Basically saying a circuit breaker doesn’t wash its face economically 

He details how the Department of health run everything through a standard cost / benefit analysis model to see if its value for money. Using the circuit breaker as an example...

SAGE estimate a circuit breaker to save 7,800 lives. Average age of Covid death is 82, if that person is saved then on average they would live 9 more years. So a circuit breaker saves 70k years of life (7,800 people x 9 years each). The maximum the Department of health would normally ever pay is £30k per year of live = £270k per Covid life saved = £2.1bn for 7,800 lives. The damage to the economy of a circuit breaker is £7.3bn so in this instance it would fail the normal analysis by some way 

In totality we are on course to spend £400bn in year 1 alone, saving 400k lives in total, who would on average live another 9 years. That gets the cost to £1m per life saved, 4 times what the department would usually pay 

Going to be hard for the department of health to say no to stuff in future if the cost analysis is even double the usual maximum. Why is a Covid patient worth more than a cancer patient? Etc 

Full article for anyone interested...

Circuit-breaker ‘not worth hit to economy’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/circuit-breaker-not-worth-hit-to-economy-3k0h686c8

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22 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

The average 82 year old lives another 9 years? That's 91. Is that definitely correct?

Assume so, he worked in the DOH / SAGE 

I guess if you’ve made it all the way to 82 then another 9 years would be about right 

Life expectancy for most is 81 but ‘most people’ still have decades to go until they get there, plenty of things could get you in that time 

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5 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Assume so, he worked in the DOH / SAGE 

I guess if you’ve made it all the way to 82 then another 9 years would be about right 

Life expectancy for most is 81 but you’ve still got decades to go until you get there, plenty of things could get you in that time 

What you are saying is that the average life expectancy is 81 but the average of of covid deaths is 82 , something is wrong with one of those 

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5 minutes ago, tyldesley_white said:

What you are saying is that the average life expectancy is 81 but the average of of covid deaths is 82 , something is wrong with one of those 

No

The average life expectancy in the U.K. is 81 (on average, clearly if your already older than 81 it’s safe to say your life expectancy is more than 81) 

The average age of a Covid death is 82 

The average 82 year old in the U.K. can expect to live for 9 more years 

Not sure how those three facts can’t all be right at the same time? 

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24 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

No

The average life expectancy in the U.K. is 81 (on average, clearly if your already older than 81 it’s safe to say your life expectancy is more than 81) 

The average age of a Covid death is 82 

The average 82 year old in the U.K. can expect to live for 9 more years 

Not sure how those three facts can’t all be right at the same time? 

All correct

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1 hour ago, birch-chorley said:

No

The average life expectancy in the U.K. is 81 (on average, clearly if your already older than 81 it’s safe to say your life expectancy is more than 81) 

The average age of a Covid death is 82 

The average 82 year old in the U.K. can expect to live for 9 more years 

Not sure how those three facts can’t all be right at the same time? 

Suppose they can be, one of those freaky things with statistics. 

Been trying to get my head around the analysis from before: is there any analysis of potential effects of long covid on the costings/economy or is it too soon?

Point behind the question is that the spending isn't just on those saved lives directly. 

Its the potential to stop a lot more going through lack of hospital places etc, and ongoing medical intervention for post covid issues.

Not sure how the latter could be calculated, but I imagine someone will have a go.

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Let’s say there’s an 82 year old war veteran. Fully decorated gent, enough medals for a hundred men.

Are we saying it’s ok to tell him thanks for the service, but he can basically kiss (potentially) another 20 years goodbye just so some scutter from the estate can carry on selling bags down the local?

Why not just suffocate him with a massive poppy?

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12 minutes ago, Spider said:

Let’s say there’s an 82 year old war veteran. Fully decorated gent, enough medals for a hundred men.

Are we saying it’s ok to tell him thanks for the service, but he can basically kiss (potentially) another 20 years goodbye just so some scutter from the estate can carry on selling bags down the local?

Why not just suffocate him with a massive poppy?

Just give him the opium from it.

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54 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Suppose they can be, one of those freaky things with statistics. 

Been trying to get my head around the analysis from before: is there any analysis of potential effects of long covid on the costings/economy or is it too soon?

Point behind the question is that the spending isn't just on those saved lives directly. 

Its the potential to stop a lot more going through lack of hospital places etc, and ongoing medical intervention for post covid issues.

Not sure how the latter could be calculated, but I imagine someone will have a go.

The example in the article looks like the cost / benefit calc is done purely on deaths, however I imagine they do go into it a bit deeper day to day (not sure enough is known about the impact of long Covid to add it to the cost / benefit analysis yet)

I’d imagine the sheer scale of Covid is the reason that the usual cost benefit analysis has gone out the window

 

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