Coronavirus

[Traf]

2 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

bollocks, the Pasteur Institute in Paris, a not for profit organisation who were the fist the isolate HIV in the eighties have already sequenced the genome of coronavirus and shared it around the world. its also been sequenced by around 20 other organisations, none of them have mentioned HIV

https://www.pasteur.fr/en/press-area/press-documents/institut-pasteur-isolates-strains-coronavirus-2019-ncov-detected-france

Cheers, I did some digging myself to see if I'd imagined it and there was indeed a paper put forward by some Indian scientists suggesting an HIV insertion into the virus, but they've since withdrawn that proposition.

[peelyfeet]

5 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

You can’t exclude China though really as that just gives a very small sample which is pointless. Like any data set you can manipulate it to tell what you want 

I’m just worried that the true numbers are being hidden. But I’m also hopeful that we are taking enough precautions here which we appear to be doing in preparation. 
 

I agree, but you can't have it both ways.

You either believe the reported numbers from China are accurate or at least honest,  or you discount them and base your analysis on what you have left.

[Escobarp]

Just now, peelyfeet said:

I agree, but you can't have it both ways.

You either believe the reported numbers from China are accurate or at least honest,  or you discount them and base your analysis on what you have left.

Correct. I believe the numbers that I have seen reported as per the mail article this morning. I’ve now seen it across a number of various news sites amongst other things and the apparent evidence of a cover up is quite compelling 

[peelyfeet]

Just now, Escobarp said:

Correct. I believe the numbers that I have seen reported as per the mail article this morning. I’ve now seen it across a number of various news sites amongst other things and the apparent evidence of a cover up is quite compelling 

the model that the lancet created think the infected numbers in china are more like 250,000, which if true, and using the other data we have, extrapolates out to between 1,750 and 5,000 deaths

[Escobarp]

2 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

the model that the lancet created think the infected numbers in china are more like 250,000, which if true, and using the other data we have, extrapolates out to between 1,750 and 5,000 deaths

The case numbers from the lancet report tally with the numbers being reported in the mail article. But deaths are quoted at 25k in there thus 10%. 
whatever the truth is I’m convinced it isn’t what the Chinese are telling us officially 

[bwfcfan5]

26 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

You can’t exclude China though really as that just gives a very small sample which is pointless. Like any data set you can manipulate it to tell what you want 

I’m just worried that the true numbers are being hidden. But I’m also hopeful that we are taking enough precautions here which we appear to be doing in preparation. 
 

There is no doubt the numbers from China will be wrong. But the point is a ten percent death rate would be seen far more widely and known. As it was with SARS. The hundreds infected outside of China would have resulted in far more deaths. 
 

The reality is that infections will be far higher than reported. And I will bet current death rate is lower than 2%!

[Escobarp]

5 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

There is no doubt the numbers from China will be wrong. But the point is a ten percent death rate would be seen far more widely and known. As it was with SARS. The hundreds infected outside of China would have resulted in far more deaths. 
 

The reality is that infections will be far higher than reported. And I will bet current death rate is lower than 2%!

I can only go off what i see. I’m told

to believe the official reports which show 25k cases 2% mortality or the other report which is 250k cases and 10% mortality. 
 

agree you would expect it to be seen wider but it does appear to be relatively well contained within China which again appear really really strange to me. But maybe I’m reading too much into it

[peelyfeet]

8 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

The case numbers from the lancet report tally with the numbers being reported in the mail article. But deaths are quoted at 25k in there thus 10%. 
whatever the truth is I’m convinced it isn’t what the Chinese are telling us officially 

if you look at the confirmed cases timeline from when the virus was isolated in China, they seem to be massively inconsistent - China reported the numbers of confirmed/suspected cases from 2nd Jan until 16th Jan to have grown from 44 to 45, which just so happens to be the time millions of people were starting to travel in and out of Wuhan to go home for new year, so I'm fairly confident that the infected number is massively higher, not so sure about the mortality rate yet, but i suspect it will be below 2% worldwide, and below 1% in Western Europe/ US.

[bwfcfan5]

49 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

I can only go off what i see. I’m told

to believe the official reports which show 25k cases 2% mortality or the other report which is 250k cases and 10% mortality. 
 

agree you would expect it to be seen wider but it does appear to be relatively well contained within China which again appear really really strange to me. But maybe I’m reading too much into it

Whilst the Chinese will be misreporting for some deliberate reasons and also because tracking infections and causes of death on this scale is virtually impossible...it’s also true that nobody will know the true number. So reports will simply be scaremongering and conspiracy theory nuts.

Viruses can mutate to become more or less deadly etc that’s when we should worry. If this thing starts to rapidly change like the common cold - with no immunity that could be real trouble. 

[Burndens Bogs]

Can’t trust the Chinese to give accurate figures to the media.The Chinese government can’t fuckin lie straight in bed !

[e2e4]

9 hours ago, Traf said:

Cheers, I did some digging myself to see if I'd imagined it and there was indeed a paper put forward by some Indian scientists suggesting an HIV insertion into the virus, but they've since withdrawn that proposition.

you can get banned from facebook and that for mentioning that. 

theres a thing where white europeans have some fault on their white blood cells or something and it stops them from getting the plague, but it means they might not get certain other diseases, but more jip from others. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCR5

the story i read , were that they used this somehow (stem cells or magic , probably ) to cure  some black kid  of sickle cell anaemia , by going all bone marrow transplant / make him live in a plastic bubble: like he had luekemia. and now he not got that anaemia. 

pinch of salt and all that , the wiki article on that mentions certain types of hiv get in through the same route.. 

Not a mutant AidsFlu Level of a story , but kinda cool. 

 

 

[kent_white]

Flying Aids

[MancWanderer]

[Casino]

Daughters going to phillipines in a couple of weeks

Its not on the high risk list

Yet

 

[MancWanderer]

I’m in Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand 12th March onwards. 

Asking for a friend if its worth upping Mrs Manc’s life insurance and encouraging her to eat the “live” delicacies from the local markets?

[Casino]

22 minutes ago, MancWanderer said:

I’m in Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand 12th March onwards. 

Asking for a friend if its worth upping Mrs Manc’s life insurance and encouraging her to eat the “live” delicacies from the local markets?

Next week's Tarrant is vietnam

[Escobarp]

I’ve just moved my flights to Thailand from end of this month to December. Mate of mine is there now says eerily quiet so decided to pay the fee to move to end of year. 

[MickyD]

Update from my mate's ship in Japan.

Not much to report, they have identified another set of cases, but I did not hear how many it was

Certain passengers are being allowed outside for fresh air at designated times, we took on supplies yesterday and all infected people are being removed from the vessel.

Can only hope that they don't find more cases ithe next round of screening or the quarantine will extend

An additional 41 bringing our total to 61, that's more than Europe!

I'm actually not sure what "an additional 41 refers to, 41 confirmed or 41 suspected.

[MalcolmW]

I think it's an additional 41 suspected cases in Japan, added to the 20 previously reported there.

[peelyfeet]

Must be pretty spooky on that Japanese cruise ship, reported figures are here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

If we compare yesterday with today, excluding China, the progress reads like this;

Yesterday -  263 confirmed cases, 4 critically ill, 2 deaths, 20 recovered.

Today  - 325 confirmed cases, 5 critically ill, 2 deaths, 31 recovered.

Positives are; big jump in the recovered figures, (as expected), no more deaths, small increase in critically ill, mortality rate dropped to 0.6%. It's still miles too early to get an accurate mortality rate because we don't have accurate figures for the true infected rate, and most of the infected haven't recovered yet. 

Negative is: infection growing at over 20% per day despite quarantines. The new infected UK patient  apparently caught the virus in Singapore several days ago when there were only a handful of reported cases in Singapore, so sounds very unlucky, unless there are actually many more cases in Singapore than have been confirmed.

Lancet model would be near 300,000 infections in China now.

Edited February 7, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Spider]

I’m going to Seoul in early April. Will it be like 28 days later? 
I was looking forward to being the tallest person in the meeting.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

18 minutes ago, Spider said:

I’m going to Seoul in early April. Will it be like 28 days later? 
I was looking forward to being the only person in the meeting.

Getting political now. Doctor who tried to raise alarm and was fucked over by police for spreading rumours is now dead. Protests against the government over it.

Worldwide shortage of protective clothing too.

[Sweep]

5 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Worldwide shortage of protective clothing too.

My contacts have asked me to try and source some medical masks, as they're rare as rocking horse shit in China.

If/when they go back to work on Monday, they're supposed to wear masks, and dispose of them every for hours. Also, to heap the misery on, those travelling between certain provinces will have to be "home quarantined" for 14 days.

Some of the factories I deal with might open next week, but might only have 10% of their workforce able to do anything. Its bedlam.

There is also talk of some cities being locked down further until March 1st

 

[miamiwhite]

1 minute ago, Sweep said:

My contacts have asked me to try and source some medical masks, as they're rare as rocking horse shit in China.

If/when they go back to work on Monday, they're supposed to wear masks, and dispose of them every for hours. Also, to heap the misery on, those travelling between certain provinces will have to be "home quarantined" for 14 days.

Some of the factories I deal with might open next week, but might only have 10% of their workforce able to do anything. Its bedlam.

There is also talk of some cities being locked down further until March 1st

 

Is the knock on effect costing your firm money mate ? Really hope you don't suffer as a result 

[Mannyroader]

17 hours ago, Escobarp said:

I’ve just moved my flights to Thailand from end of this month to December. Mate of mine is there now says eerily quiet so decided to pay the fee to move to end of year. 

Pleasantly quiet actually. No more tour groups following a guide with a flag. Some would say that now is the best time to come, me included.

Nothing against the Chinese BTW but the tour groups and associated traffic are a bit too much day in and day out. 

No-one has  died in Thailand. A taxi driver that caught the virus off a fare has fully recovered after a week. A bit like you would if you had a cold.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Mannyroader