Coronavirus

[Spider]

2 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

As spider posted Germany death rate much lower it does not follow that deaths here will mirror the Italian death rates,  in fact I’m convinced they won’t. 

I’m with Mounts here.

And sincerely hope we’re right.

Outside London, most of us don’t live right on top of each other. There are way way way more Italians living in tower blocks than Brits. All using the same lifts, stair rails, waste disposal facilities. It’s the same story in Spain.

Here, we are blessed with minimal communal living.

The spike in London (and I imagine Birmingham at some point) should prove this.

Im guessing and being hopeful, but common sense says the way we live here may keep things lower.

[Sweep]

13 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

It’s not a fact, it’ll be a fact if next week his figures are something like he’s quantified. I don’t believe they will be. 

Out of interest, based on what

I'm assuming that peely is basing his numbers on what has happened in other places, therefore simply using them to see where we will be in a week or twos time. Why do you think we'll be so much better off than Italy and Spain?  -  have you seen the amount of idiots that are still going about their business as though nothing at all has changed?

[Mounts Kipper]

2 minutes ago, Spider said:

I’m with Mounts here.

And sincerely hope we’re right.

Outside London, most of us don’t live right on top of each other. There are way way way more Italians living in tower blocks than Brits. All using the same lifts, stair rails, waste disposal facilities. It’s the same story in Spain.

Here, we are blessed with minimal communal living.

The spike in London (and I imagine Birmingham at some point) should prove this.

Im guessing and being hopeful, but common sense says the way we live here may keep things lower.

I’d also add the social aspect of Mediterranean life where 3 generations mix closely every weekend is a big factor. My Brother in law is a assistant prof in Utah he said 7 year old kids are the sweet spot for passing on the virus as they don’t show symptoms and are passing it on unknown. 

[peelyfeet]

5 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

As spider posted Germany death rate much lower it does not follow that deaths here will mirror the Italian death rates,  in fact I’m convinced they won’t. 

what is convicing you?

I mentioned earlier, dividing the number of deaths by the confirmed cases and then comparing this with other countries is a red herring because each country has rolled out their testing differently - any country that has tested lots and early shows a low %

you need to look at deaths and the death growth rate to see how a country is faring.

Germany is below

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany  

They're either on the same path as us, but a few days behind, or their earlier testing has allowed them to isolate more patients at an earlier stage, or both.

 

[Rudy]

11 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

Btw holts are closing next week 

most of their clientele are risk groups and wreak of piss anyway😀

Blasphemy. 
Mr Grey might smell of piss but that’s nothing to do with the Joey Holts 

[radcliffe white]

2 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

Blasphemy. 
Mr Grey might smell of piss but that’s nothing to do with the Joey Holts 

😀

[Mounts Kipper]

9 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Out of interest, based on what

I'm assuming that peely is basing his numbers on what has happened in other places, therefore simply using them to see where we will be in a week or twos time. Why do you think we'll be so much better off than Italy and Spain?  -  have you seen the amount of idiots that are still going about their business as though nothing at all has changed?

Lifestyle of the Mediterranean’s and average age hasn’t helped, the spike in Italy has happened quickly and without warning meaning intensive care has been overwhelmed, we’ve already told folk of a certain age or with health issues to isolate,  all these factors have a bearing on the outcome and think we are better placed to cope.  

Edited March 20, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[peelyfeet]

1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I’d also add the social aspect of Mediterranean life where 3 generations mix closely every weekend is a big factor. My Brother in law is a assistant prof in Utah he said 7 year old kids are the sweet spot for passing on the virus as they don’t show symptoms and are passing it on unknown. 

yes that is correct - the studies from S Korea show that the young are spreading it around more because they are less likely to isolate, because they aren't feeling ill or showing any symptoms as much.

 I hope the co-habiting of generations is a factor, however it doesn't seem to have made any difference with our comparative growth rates over the last week, so it's hard to justify it.

 

[Escobarp]

24 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

It’s not a fact, it’ll be a fact if next week his figures are something like he’s quantified. I don’t believe they will be. 

I’m saying those figures are facts. Actual deaths. They aren’t making them up you know? So it’s. A fact. Fact 

[Escobarp]

6 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

Blasphemy. 
Mr Grey might smell of piss but that’s nothing to do with the Joey Holts 

Maybe it’s a tactical move to stink of Piss social distancing at its most inventive???

[Tonge moor green jacket]

15 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

As spider posted Germany death rate much lower it does not follow that deaths here will mirror the Italian death rates,  in fact I’m convinced they won’t. 

You may be right on the numbers to come.

As has been said about Germany; they have tested a shit load more therefore their death rate is seemingly lower.

If we have loads not being tested and getting better then in reality our death rate would be lower.

Can't help feeling though that our numbers will rise quite sharply for a while yet; those who are passing away now will have been infected some days ago, before the ramping up of measures.

Hopefully, they will start to slow down soon enough.

Put tanks on every exit of the m25 that leads to another motorway.

Likewise on major trunk roads.

[peelyfeet]

1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Lifestyle of the Mediterranean’s and average age hasn’t helped, the spike in Italy has happened quickly and without warning meaning intensive care has been overwhelmed, , we’ve already told folk of a certain age or with health issues to isolate,  all these factors have a bearing on the outcome and think we are better placed to cope.  

that may be the case in weeks to come - i hope you're right - but don't forget the lag between infection and death - I' m only talking about the next 10 days.

The old folk weren't isolating, the schools were open, we were all going to work, shops, pubs, restaurants, on public transport as normal 3 weeks ago.

The death numbers we see over the next few weeks are a reflection of the historic infected, not today. look back at how many we infected cases we had  3 weeks ago - 23 patients - how many 2 weeks ago -  160.

 

[Mounts Kipper]

3 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

that may be the case in weeks to come - i hope you're right - but don't forget the lag between infection and death - I' m only talking about the next 10 days.

The old folk weren't isolating, the schools were open, we were all going to work, shops, pubs, restaurants, on public transport as normal 3 weeks ago.

The death numbers we see over the next few weeks are a reflection of the historic infected, not today. look back at how many we infected cases we had  3 weeks ago - 23 patients - how many 2 weeks ago -  160.

 

I’m looking at Germany as more likely outcome for the U.K. were more like the Germans than the southern Mediterranean’s, think you need to rein in your opinions. 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I’m looking at Germany as more likely outcome for the U.K. were more like the Germans than the southern Mediterranean’s, think you need to rein in your opinions. 

In fairness, they're numerical facts and extrapolation based on what's happened elsewhere.

Not pleasant to think about, let's hope we can keep numbers below the threshold for treatment on ventilators.

[Mounts Kipper]

2 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

In fairness, they're numerical facts and extrapolation based on what's happened elsewhere.

Not pleasant to think about, let's hope we can keep numbers below the threshold for treatment on ventilators.

He is using the worst possible outcome from the worst affected countries and trotting it out as facts, let’s just see where we are in a week. 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[Escobarp]

5 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I’m looking at Germany as more likely outcome for the U.K. were more like the Germans than the southern Mediterranean’s, think you need to rein in your opinions. 

Is that Germany where the whole of Bavaria has just been placed of full scale lock down aye ?

[Mounts Kipper]

1 minute ago, Escobarp said:

Is that Germany where the whole of Bavaria has just been placed of full scale lock down aye ?

But the death rates much lower than the Mediterranean countries. 

[Escobarp]

1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said:

But the death rates much lower than the Mediterranean countries. 

Agreed. Because they are potentially ahead of the game and have taken it more seriously possibly. End of the day we just don’t know. This could absolutely ravage us and we could get away relatively lightly. But our behaviors are going to help dictate that to a massive extent 

 

although I should add one of the reasons Bavaria is on lock down as the yoof were having mass corona parties in the parks apparently. Same cunts probably protesting about climate change and everything else no doubt 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Escobarp

[Spider]

Greta did this

[jmjhb]

I'm expecting it to be particularly bad amongst the religious.

Read somewhere that 25% of cases are Muslims

[Leyther_Matt]

41 minutes ago, Spider said:

I’m with Mounts here.

And sincerely hope we’re right.

Outside London, most of us don’t live right on top of each other. There are way way way more Italians living in tower blocks than Brits. All using the same lifts, stair rails, waste disposal facilities. It’s the same story in Spain.

Here, we are blessed with minimal communal living.

The spike in London (and I imagine Birmingham at some point) should prove this.

Im guessing and being hopeful, but common sense says the way we live here may keep things lower.

Was in one of the BBC reports earlier today that the West Midlands rate was significantly higher than the rest of the country (outside of London).

[Escobarp]

2 minutes ago, jmjhb said:

I'm expecting it to be particularly bad amongst the religious.

Read somewhere that 25% of cases are Muslims

I’m saying nothing 

[Zico]

Italy overtaken China on 3500 deaths

Killing one person every ten minutes in Iran

[peelyfeet]

33 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I’m looking at Germany as more likely outcome for the U.K. were more like the Germans than the southern Mediterranean’s, think you need to rein in your opinions. 

OK I'll say nothing more than this for now on how the death rates may or may not grow - everyone is entitled to their own opinion, and don't need to fall out, so this is it for while.

I'm not using my opinion as a method to extrapolate how its going to pan out.

I've looked at how our daily death figures have grown since we reached 10 deaths. 

I've compared this with how Italy, France Germany, US and Spain grew after 10 deaths - I'll call this 10D

These deaths have already happened, they're in the past.

The Facts are that our recorded daily death rate, based on the links I provided earlier, has grown at a similar but also slightly higher % rate from 10D up till today (7 days), when compared to the same period (10D  - 7 days later) in the countries above - that is indisputable

The projection that I'm making for the next 10 days is a guess

But It's a guess based on the pattern that we and the countries above have had since 10D onwards. Its not my opinion. its just maths, and the maths may be wrong.

 

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Mounts Kipper]

1 minute ago, peelyfeet said:

OK I'll say nothing more than this for now on how the death rates may or may not grow - everyone is entitled to their own opinion, and don't need to fall out, so this is it for while.

I'm not using my opinion as a method to extrapolate how its going to pan out.

I've looked at how our daily death figures have grown since we reached 10 deaths. 

I've compared this with how Italy, France Germany, US and Spain grew after 10 deaths - I'll call this 10D

These deaths have already happened, they're in the past.

The Facts are that our recorded daily death rate, based on the links I provided earlier, has grown at a similar but also slightly higher % rate from 10D up till today, than any of the other countries above - that is indisputable

The projection that I'm making for the next 10 days is a guess

But It's a guess based on the pattern that we and the countries above have had since 10D. Its not my opinion. its just maths, and the maths may be wrong.

 

 

No arguments from me your calculations are your opinion, you’ve made them clear, let’s see how it transpires.