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37 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

I disagree. I think they are placing massive faith in the vaccination programme to drive down hospitalizations and I firmly believe 21st June England will be fully open for business. 
 

we shall see of course 

amongst other things, the roadmap / plan takes into account "behavioural responses to any changes" and assumes "no change in adherence following vaccination"

that'll be the biggest factor

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7 minutes ago, Zico said:

amongst other things, the roadmap / plan takes into account "behavioural responses to any changes" and assumes "no change in adherence following vaccination"

that'll be the biggest factor

Same people who’ve been breaking the rules will still be breaking the rules today and all the way through. It’s why we are still here. But it’s never spoken of for some reason. We all know many people doing it. 

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42 minutes ago, jmjhb said:

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look back to when it first started, we were getting 500-1000 deaths (a day/week? , its unclear on the chart). 

i'm not sure how they can "come out of it" if its getting roughly the same numbers as when no one knew what were going on back  in march/april/may etc. 

why were they "ZOMG !! hair on fire" back then , but now "ha, well be back in june" if the deaths are approximately similar 

 i know theyll say summat about a vaccine.. but the numbers seem similar even under more "experience" with it. 

shouldnt that be more concerning ?

Edited by e2e4
spelt the months wrong, deleted a typo
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16 minutes ago, e2e4 said:

look back to when it first started, we were getting 500-1000 deaths (a day/week? , its unclear on the chart). 

i'm not sure how they can "come out of it" if its getting roughly the same numbers as when no one knew what were going on back  in march/april/may etc. 

why were they "ZOMG !! hair on fire" back then , but now "ha, well be back in june" if the deaths are approximately similar 

 i know theyll say summat about a vaccine.. but the numbers seem similar even under more "experience" with it. 

shouldnt that be more concerning ?

I literally don’t understand what you are saying.

It’s probably profound and insightful, but....

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31 minutes ago, e2e4 said:

look back to when it first started, we were getting 500-1000 deaths (a day/week? , its unclear on the chart). 

i'm not sure how they can "come out of it" if its getting roughly the same numbers as when no one knew what were going on back  in march/april/may etc. 

why were they "ZOMG !! hair on fire" back then , but now "ha, well be back in june" if the deaths are approximately similar 

 i know theyll say summat about a vaccine.. but the numbers seem similar even under more "experience" with it. 

shouldnt that be more concerning ?

In the end no.

If vaccine numbers are very high, the virus is manageable. 

Just got to get there.

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17 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

I literally don’t understand what you are saying.

It’s probably profound and insightful, but....

say the deaths are the same (ive tried looking and the death rate in june 2020? was roughly the same as now) . why are they coming out with roadmaps now ?

surely they should be talking about being under lockdown for another eight weeks ? based off of the amount of deaths. 

we've had 550 deaths before, they never said "right that means we can reopen in 10 weeks" back then. 

if 550 deaths was too high *then* shouldnt it be too high *now* . 

 

Edited by e2e4
typo
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3 minutes ago, e2e4 said:

hmmm, 

i reckon in 8 weeks they'll come out with some line about the ratio of deaths to infection being too high. 

No chance. That’s one figure that will fall.

Should a large increase in cases actually occur, then there may well be hospitalisations and deaths, but not at the previous rate. The figures for protection, including in the old, from the vaccine are tremendous. 

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Deaths are always the last thing to move. So the current deaths are related to the infections of 4-5 weeks ago.  
 

The drop in infections in recent weeks has according to the briefings exceeded expectations. That alone would be encouraging but infections can happen after vaccination, but deaths should be massively lower.

 

Hopefully the drop in deaths is 'guaranteed' for next 3-4 weeks based on the drop in infections. 

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4 hours ago, Casino said:

As for AI, did it once and it was oerfect for us at the time

10 adults, 20 kids

Loads of pools and activities

But I much prefer small SC

Self catering...

I recall, with fondness, the time at my favourite Cretan apartments where someone came down complaining there wasn’t a medium saucepan in their kitchenette. The apartment owner turned to me as I sat with beer in hand and asked if I had a saucepan. I said I think So and he asked me to get it. The bloke complaining turned round and asked if that wouldn’t inconvenience me.

Er, no! I told him I’d been coming here for 6 or 7 years and he was the first person who, apart from coffee or tea, actually cooked. 
 

Another bloke complained that the kettle was full of limescale. The Greek owner went to their store and brought out a brand new kettle. Bloke asked where his water was!

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1 hour ago, e2e4 said:

hmmm, 

i reckon in 8 weeks they'll come out with some line about the ratio of deaths to infection being too high. 

Highly unlikely 

For 2 reasons;

1. They’ll pick up on it and the unwinding will stop

2. (more likely and hopefully); The vaccine

Edited by boltondiver
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Wtf is going on with the vaccinations

Its almost like they lied to hit the target and now its correcting itself

2 shit days might be sat and sun, but isnt it now about 500k in 3 days?

Edited by Casino
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37 minutes ago, Casino said:

Wtf is going on with the vaccinations

Its almost like they lied to hit the target and now its correcting itself

2 shit days might be sat and sun, but isnt it now about 500k in 3 days?

I don’t think that’s the case, remember the target was to offer to the top priority list, but they made it with actual jabs.

Something else, don’t know what.

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37 minutes ago, Casino said:

Wtf is going on with the vaccinations

Its almost like they lied to hit the target and now its correcting itself

2 shit days might be sat and sun, but isnt it now about 500k in 3 days?

Medical professional think she was something to do with the vaccines task force said  there will be daily peaks and troughs due to the nature of batch supply, and to look at the trend over at least a couple of weeks or so rather than daily or even weekly numbers

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