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1 hour ago, Spider said:

Why do people seem to think that a low mortality rate is a good thing here?

Its not chicken pox. You can contract this again within a few weeks, thereby increasing the risk of death.

It also seems to mutate quickly according to the WHO. Don’t get fooled again by statistics.

See this is just wrong. The WHO have not said this. In fact the early genome analysis suggests the opposite to quick mutation. 

I'd also like to know where your "you can contract it again within a few weeks" comes from. Because I doubt there is any evidence of that. 

 

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Just now, bwfcfan5 said:

See this is just wrong. The WHO have not said this. In fact the early genome analysis suggests the opposite to quick mutation. 

I'd also like to know where your "you can contract it again within a few weeks" comes from. Because I doubt there is any evidence of that. 

 

Where’s your evidence it’s just a cold????

how many folk you know that are pushing up daisies because of a runny nose??

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1 minute ago, bwfcfan5 said:

See this is just wrong. The WHO have not said this. In fact the early genome analysis suggests the opposite to quick mutation. 

I'd also like to know where your "you can contract it again within a few weeks" comes from. Because I doubt there is any evidence of that. 

 

It's coronavirus. Are you saying you CAN'T catch it again soon after an infection?

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2 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

It’s significantly worse in terms of both cases and mortality rates than they are letting on. Quite how bad is anyone’s guess. 
but for me when we had things like sars and Ebola the UK government weren’t quite as nervous from memory unless someone can correct me?

but it’s nowt worse than a cold so no need to worry 

Sars and Ebola were far far more deadly - but equally far less infectious.

This is far more infectious and harder to stop - we won't stop it. It will spread round the world - my guess will be there are hundreds of people who have had it in the UK - most not even realising they've had it. And it will be spreading from there. 

But keep it in perspective - hundreds of cases now outside China - how many deaths?

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Just now, Spider said:

It's coronavirus. Are you saying you CAN'T catch it again soon after an infection?

The ability to re-infect depends on its mutation rate - which as I've said early studies suggest its relatively stable compared to say the common cold. Given as far as anyone knows there is only one strain - unlike the common cold - then I'd say no - there is zero evidence you can contract it again in a few weeks.

In a few months or a year - quite possible - as far as I know most coronavirus antibodies don't last forever. But far longer than a few weeks. 

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6 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Where’s your evidence it’s just a cold????

how many folk you know that are pushing up daisies because of a runny nose??

You're conflating things. Nobody says "its just a cold". It is a cold-like virus we have no immunity to. Its dangerous because those with compromised immune systems or underlying conditions can see big issues from it with pneumonia like scarring on the lungs etc....

However, the fact is that whilst this thing isn't going to be stopped the mortality rate is seemingly low - and generally, but not always a virus to spread does not want to kill its host - so as it mutates (if it does) there is a good chance (not certainty) but a good chance it reduces the mortality rate further.

I don't really see the point of conspiracy and stuff. The science is out there - its early days - yes this could wipe out millions - as could literally any strain of a new virus or a flu mutation at any point - but the evidence so far is that its going to be hard to stop it spreading - its not a good thing to get - but that MOST the vast majority of people experience symptoms ranging from cold to moderate flu then are fine. See for example the bloke who spread it to others in the UK - he experienced mild cold like symptoms - then was fine. 

 

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Then I bow to your superior medical knowledge.

It'll all be ok it seems.

Is there any subject you're not an expert on? You should be on Eggheads or summat.

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53 minutes ago, Spider said:

Then I bow to your superior medical knowledge.

It'll all be ok it seems.

Is there any subject you're not an expert on? You should be on Eggheads or summat.

Be a while before he replies he’s advising the WHO in between his shifts with the eu and the British government today and then onto lostock to devise a plan for Saturday’s game. Mans in demand and why not with his depth of talents 

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9 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Be a while before he replies he’s advising the WHO in between his shifts with the eu and the British government today and then onto lostock to devise a plan for Saturday’s game. Mans in demand and why not with his depth of talents 

He's also got a cabinet reshuffle to sort out

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In fairness, statements yesterday were that recovering people will have produced antibodies that fight it off. Thereby meaning they will be able to twat the virus should it try again. Indeed one possible treatment is the production of a serum utilising such antibodies. These were the words of experts.

One concern is the death of the doctor who first reported it. He was healthy, with no underlying health issues. What was explained was that he may have been repeatedly exposed over a short period of time, meaning a very high viral load which took effect before his body could produce enough antibodies to fight it off.

Today's change in stats is coming about from a different way of confirmation of infection. No longer using an RNA test, but instead using temperature and chest scan as confirmation- thus raising numbers. Don't know the reason for this, perhaps it's quicker.

All that said, it's far more than a cold, and there's clearly a good reason why nations are taking such precautions. Even at a low death rate, if plenty catch it, that's still a lot of potential deaths.

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1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

In fairness, statements yesterday were that recovering people will have produced antibodies that fight it off. Thereby meaning they will be able to twat the virus should it try again. Indeed one possible treatment is the production of a serum utilising such antibodies. These were the words of experts.

One concern is the death of the doctor who first reported it. He was healthy, with no underlying health issues. What was explained was that he may have been repeatedly exposed over a short period of time, meaning a very high viral load which took effect before his body could produce enough antibodies to fight it off.

Today's change in stats is coming about from a different way of confirmation of infection. No longer using an RNA test, but instead using temperature and chest scan as confirmation- thus raising numbers. Don't know the reason for this, perhaps it's quicker.

All that said, it's far more than a cold, and there's clearly a good reason why nations are taking such precautions. Even at a low death rate, if plenty catch it, that's still a lot of potential deaths.

Yep this. 

I agree re the Chinese ophthalmologist who died- that raised alarm bells. A 34 year old medical professional dying certainly made it a bit scarier. However, we don't know whether he had an underlying condition of course - perhaps an undetected one. 

Not sure about the viral load theory - once you have it you have it and it multiplies inside - doesn't really matter how often you see infection and of course some viruses with repeated exposure you actually develop immunity that you lose when exposure stops. 

The diagnosis change is presumably simply because its not feasible to test the huge numbers with a blood test - so the numbers now, one assumes will include some false positives - whereas the previous numbers will have missed loads. 

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It was the words of an expert that explained the viral load situation with the doctor. Quite literally the amount of shit he may have inhaled in maybe a few hours. Far too much for his body to cope with having not been exposed previously. It wasn't offered as a theory, but an explanation.

Probably why so many wear masks.

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5 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

Is anyone else slightly alarmed that it killed 242 people yesterday alone 

According to bwfcfan5 it’s ok as it’s a low percentage of those infected.

Get yerself a bat butty and relax

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13 minutes ago, Spider said:

According to bwfcfan5 it’s ok as it’s a low percentage of those infected.

Get yerself a bat butty and relax

So it’s ok to eat this Pangolin hash our Maude has made?

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18 minutes ago, Spider said:

According to bwfcfan5 it’s ok as it’s a low percentage of those infected.

Get yerself a bat butty and relax

To be fair, consider how many people die every single winter from flu.

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39 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

So it’s ok to eat this Pangolin hash our Maude has made?

Spider stew for you

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35 minutes ago, Winchester White said:

To be fair, consider how many people die every single winter from flu.

So why don’t we quarantine everyone with flu?

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There's a bloke who got me through my nursing degree called Dr John Campbell who is doing daily updates on the Coronavirus on YouTube.

He's probably a more reputatable source than most of us. When he starts hitting the panic button - I definitely will. 

So far - he's concerned but not in full on run to the hills mode.

 

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2 hours ago, Spider said:

So why don’t we quarantine everyone with flu?

We kind of do when we know about it in a hospital environment for example.  But this seems to spread like a common cold whilst flu isn't quite as easily transmitted - at least that's what some bod on the radio said.

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3 hours ago, Spider said:

So why don’t we quarantine everyone with flu?

We try and get everyone to vaccinate or those at risk and kids. So there is less need. Plus we mostly have some immunity to flu.

I was involved in influenza pandemic planning about 10 years ago. A new strain of flu would see very similar measures to what is taking place now. Swine flu for instance. This virus is more difficult to stop. And I’d assume it will be a global pandemic soon. You want to try and hold it for as long as possible. But I don’t think many think it will be stopped. But still most will survive if. Doesn’t mean it won’t be nasty and kill some people. But doesn’t look like being Spanish flu.

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Bugger, memo just in from head office no "non essential" international travel allowed until further notice......and I was looking forward to a good jolly up at an exhibition in Germany in a couple of weeks as well.

Also new notification from some of our factories......they've been told they have to stay shut until 22nd February at the earliest, so that's another week without product being manufactured or shipped

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18 hours ago, bwfcfan5 said:

We try and get everyone to vaccinate or those at risk and kids. So there is less need. Plus we mostly have some immunity to flu.

I was involved in influenza pandemic planning about 10 years ago. A new strain of flu would see very similar measures to what is taking place now. Swine flu for instance. This virus is more difficult to stop. And I’d assume it will be a global pandemic soon. You want to try and hold it for as long as possible. But I don’t think many think it will be stopped. But still most will survive if. Doesn’t mean it won’t be nasty and kill some people. But doesn’t look like being Spanish flu.

I’m a bit surprised you haven’t been called in to sort it all out

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