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10 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

No harm done, you don’t know that though do you? 

Let’s say he’s got it, we’ll find out in a week or so, slim chance but he might have. He spreads it around a dozen people at work who take it home and spread it round family..... Some poor fuckers Nan croakes it as a result 

You cant then say, no harm done pal, you weren’t to know 

Just stay at home and work from there, no harm done either way then, literally no downside to him staying at home 

Aye

Ring 111

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That was one of the loveliest things to ever happen. Stood in my garden sobbing like a baby! Proud to work for the NHS 👏👏👏👏❤️

My uncle lost his battle to this in Royal Bolton this morning, so he will be one of today’s numbers.  last rites over the phone held by a nurse with no family there. made an exception yester

I’ve sat with my mum who is slipping away, literally breathing her last today. She idolises the Queen, and whilst she didn’t in all likelihood hear that, I know she would have loved every single

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Unfortunately I'm spending many hours a day at Bolton Royal currently.

Even a tiny scare would fuck that place so hard it would look like the beach on Saving Private Ryan.

There are queues in the corridors already for people in seriously critical conditions.

I watched the staff doing Coronavirus drills the other night - full hazmat suits, cleansing chambers - the lot. As prepared as the staff may be, the hospital wouldn't cope. There'd be people in marquees on Great Lever golf course.

Stay at home and watch Netflix is the best advice they can give. Everyone will follow that.

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3 hours ago, boltondiver said:

Would insurance cover?

Vague right now. Insurers not willing to say either way!

Obviously your ATOL/ABTA gets you home if it goes tits up, but I'd say that unless you're planning a trip to an already-affected area, your insurance should be fine.

That said, prices aren't coming down. Mind you, mine are always a bargain 😉

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10 hours ago, Spider said:

Unfortunately I'm spending many hours a day at Bolton Royal currently.

Even a tiny scare would fuck that place so hard it would look like the beach on Saving Private Ryan.

There are queues in the corridors already for people in seriously critical conditions.

I watched the staff doing Coronavirus drills the other night - full hazmat suits, cleansing chambers - the lot. As prepared as the staff may be, the hospital wouldn't cope. There'd be people in marquees on Great Lever golf course.

Stay at home and watch Netflix is the best advice they can give. Everyone will follow that.

About 18% of patients develop severe symptoms which means they'll need at least oxygen support. About 5% need critical care. We have about 16 critical care beds in Bolton and not all of those support invasive ventilation. So if we ever got to the stage where 5,000 people in Bolton contracted it - we'd have a real headache. 

That said - there's loads of work going on behind the scenes to mitigate things and plan for the worst case scenario (even if that is unlikely to happen). And the staff can be relied upon to do their best. 

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16 minutes ago, kent_white said:

About 18% of patients develop severe symptoms which means they'll need at least oxygen support. About 5% need critical care. We have about 16 critical care beds in Bolton and not all of those support invasive ventilation. So if we ever got to the stage where 5,000 people in Bolton contracted it - we'd have a real headache. 

That said - there's loads of work going on behind the scenes to mitigate things and plan for the worst case scenario (even if that is unlikely to happen). And the staff can be relied upon to do their best. 

And the majority of those who do are those who have compromised immune systems due to age or comorbidity. So you'd hope that in the UK in the inevitable event or a larger scale outbreak we'd be better at trying to prevent those high risk groups from coming into contact with the disease. For example shutting down care home visits, advising people with risk factors to take extra care - and where possible reduce contact with others etc...its not going to be perfect but that sort of public health approach doesn't exist in China or Iran and hopefully means we'll find it more manageable. If this thing sticks that most will eventually get it, but spreading that out is crucial to keeping the NHS going and reducing the burden. 

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9 hours ago, Cheese said:

Got a feeling this is going to escalate rapidly, and is a lot worse than we're being led to believe.

Nah, it's a tough flu. It may well spread a bit, but it's nothing that requires the panic that's currently being afforded. 

Like has been said, if you're feeling unwell, stay at home. Just as it should always be with any viral infection.

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9 hours ago, Cheese said:

Got a feeling this is going to escalate rapidly, and is a lot worse than we're being led to believe.

Not sure what you think you're being led to believe? We now have enough data from outside of China to know that initial estimates of infectiousness are correct. This thing is spread easily like the cold or flu so isn't likely to be stopped now.

And we also know its mortality rate and the groups most at risk. 80% of people will have a mild-flu like illness before recovering. 20% roughly will have serious symptoms that require more extensive care with a proportion of those needing intensive hospital care. And the mortality rate is ~2%. 

If you think normal flu has a mortality rate of ~1% in USA - this is in same order of magnitude. What you've got to think is normal flu is vaccinated against in high risk groups - so its true mortality rate - if not vaccinated will be higher than 1%. 

 

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1 hour ago, Anderson said:

Nah, it's a tough flu. It may well spread a bit, but it's nothing that requires the panic that's currently being afforded. 

Like has been said, if you're feeling unwell, stay at home. Just as it should always be with any viral infection.

Phew, it's great news that we have one of the top bods from the WHO posting on here, who really  knows what's going on. I was getting worried there for a minute

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38 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Not sure what you think you're being led to believe? We now have enough data from outside of China to know that initial estimates of infectiousness are correct. This thing is spread easily like the cold or flu so isn't likely to be stopped now.

And we also know its mortality rate and the groups most at risk. 80% of people will have a mild-flu like illness before recovering. 20% roughly will have serious symptoms that require more extensive care with a proportion of those needing intensive hospital care. And the mortality rate is ~2%. 

If you think normal flu has a mortality rate of ~1% in USA - this is in same order of magnitude. What you've got to think is normal flu is vaccinated against in high risk groups - so its true mortality rate - if not vaccinated will be higher than 1%. 

 

Italy is showing a mortality rate of about 3% as of this morning  -  of course it's early days for them, but it does seem to be spreading quite quickly (up 25% overnight, but that is still based on a small starting number)

The fact is that it's "here" now (by that I mean in the west)  -  we'll see the numbers increase quite dramatically one would have thought from here on in. It's certainly not going to kill us all off I wouldn't have thought, but we really don't know and cant assess what impact it's actually going to have yet.

The biggest impact, I reckon will be an economical one, and the effects of that are already now starting to be felt. Some of the guys I deal with are in permanent panic mode now, they've not been allowed to manufacture or ship anything for pretty much a month now, they are back at work, but on very reduced capacity, and they're dreading any of their staff all of a sudden coming to work with the virus, as they'll be shut down straight away for a minimum of a further 2 weeks. The Chinese government still aren't fucking about as far as this is concerned, so they clearly still have some concern about it

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9 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Italy is showing a mortality rate of about 3% as of this morning  -  of course it's early days for them, but it does seem to be spreading quite quickly (up 25% overnight, but that is still based on a small starting number)

The fact is that it's "here" now (by that I mean in the west)  -  we'll see the numbers increase quite dramatically one would have thought from here on in. It's certainly not going to kill us all off I wouldn't have thought, but we really don't know and cant assess what impact it's actually going to have yet.

The biggest impact, I reckon will be an economical one, and the effects of that are already now starting to be felt. Some of the guys I deal with are in permanent panic mode now, they've not been allowed to manufacture or ship anything for pretty much a month now, they are back at work, but on very reduced capacity, and they're dreading any of their staff all of a sudden coming to work with the virus, as they'll be shut down straight away for a minimum of a further 2 weeks. The Chinese government still aren't fucking about as far as this is concerned, so they clearly still have some concern about it

The thing will spread its not going to be possible to stop it. I think most have known that for ages. Currently everyone is trying to slow it down. Mainly to reduce healthcare burden - there was hope its spread would be lower in warmer temps but Iran transmission seemingly destroys that theory.

The thing is that the mortality rate will vary a little by early transmission - for example if a doctor picks it up they are more likely to spread it early to patients and at risk groups - so you skew the figures a little in regions. But there is enough data to suggest a mortality rate of around 2%. Which isn't good at all, but consistent with flu to an extent - the good news is that unlike Spanish flu that wiped out millions and millions this thing seems to behave more like standard flu whereby those in at risk groups are most likely to suffer seriously, whereas spanish flu killed mainly healthy adults between ages of 20 and early 40s. 

There are worrying reports today that people having been cleared are then being "re-infected" but what is more worrying is that some medical officers in China believe they aren't being re-infected but instead the virus is deep within the lungs - they get a clear test then a few weeks later virus starts again. That would be seriously bad news if recovery from virus does not get rid of it entirely. 

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36 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Phew, it's great news that we have one of the top bods from the WHO posting on here, who really  knows what's going on. I was getting worried there for a minute

Hahahah fair, I don't profess to know a lot about it, but the way reporting has been of it all has irritated me. Perpetuating fear and causing more panic and misunderstanding than I think is necessary.

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17 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

 

There are worrying reports today that people having been cleared are then being "re-infected" but what is more worrying is that some medical officers in China believe they aren't being re-infected but instead the virus is deep within the lungs - they get a clear test then a few weeks later virus starts again. That would be seriously bad news if recovery from virus does not get rid of it entirely. 

Indeed, that would be a game changer, if it's true, hopefully it's not the case

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3 minutes ago, Anderson said:

Hahahah fair, I don't profess to know a lot about it, but the way reporting has been of it all has irritated me. Perpetuating fear and causing more panic and misunderstanding than I think is necessary.

I get that, we'll only know in the fullness of time if it's been an over reaction.....but is it better to over react or do nothing? 

It's already fucked me over, I was supposed to be on a big works based piss up in Nuremburg for the last 2 days, but that was cancelled by our CEO (duty of care and all that...) - if it affects my holiday in May, then I really will be hacked off

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1 hour ago, Sweep said:

Indeed, that would be a game changer, if it's true, hopefully it's not the case

Just a matter of minutes ago, a virologist said it should theoretically not be possible to get it again. However there are reports in Japan that a woman has tested positive for a second time; though it's not clear whether she hadn't been given sufficient time to fully recover from the first infection.

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11 hours ago, boltondiver said:

Don’t book a holiday v grabbing a bargain and not being able to travel

Would insurance cover?

I asked this question in relation to some non-holiday travel...

So answer is: If you're booking a holiday package and the foreign office decides to issue advice against any travel to that area - the tour operator will under ATOL/ABTA have to offer a refund or alternative.

If you're booking flights somewhere - and advice changes - your insurer will have to pay - EXCEPT not all insurance covers FCO travel advice changes - though all will refuse to cover you should you travel after the advice changes - bit of a scam that. Many standard bank travel insurance packages I'm told won't pay up for a flight being cancelled or changed due to FCO advice. Of course the airline should refund you if cancelled - BUT then your accomodation may well not in that instance - depends on their discretion and insurance if they explicitly exclude cover based on FCO advice changing will not cover you either.

And of course if you book something and then there is an outbreak but FCO don't formally change advice - you go or you lose your money - so whilst I'd happily travel anywhere right now personally - people who are worried and might want to consider booking stuff for next couple of months. 

This is a mess right now because nobody knows whether advice will be against travel to any region the disease pops up in and given we're likely days/weeks away from our own epidemic it would seem pointless restricting travel anyway. 

 

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The media are wanking themselves to a fine dust over this.

It's serious, yes. But you'd think it was Outbreak or Shaun of the fucking Dead out there.

I'm going on record here and saying that beer drinkers will be immune, or at the very worst need a spare packet of tissues.

Be reet.

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Rang Specsavers for an eye test, the lass on the phone said due to the coronavirus we are just asking a few additional questions. This is how it went 
Specsavers- Have I been out of the country recently?

Me- yeah I got back this morning.

Specsavers - sorry you’ll have to visit a GP or call 111

Me- Err why?

Specsavers -We’re not allowing appointments for anyone who has been out of the country due to the coronavirus 
 

Me- That can’t be true, you don’t even know where I’ve been.

S- Ok so where have you visited? 
 

M-Madrid,

S- Let me just check my list of countries, I can’t find Madrid.

M. Madrid was the city, the country is Spain.

S- so you’ve been to Madrid and Spain.

M- Yes

S- Ok just hold

2 minutes later. 

S- ok that country is fine.

 

This is how misinformation spreads. 

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The pope is ill. The day after he was touching masked people in a crowd.

Now religious is bollocks to me, but if I’m wrong and religion is real then, i reckon being responsible for killing the pope is a pretty easy way of securing eternal damnation 

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