Coronavirus

[Sweep]

11 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Aye we’re now 15 deaths per million in front of France after we chucked the 4K nursing home deaths into our totals, no doubt some folk will be happy about that just to push some weird political agenda.  

There's nothing good about any of this, and I am sure that some will use it to push their own agendas.

Questions of course will need to be answered once this is all over, but now isn't the time to be asking them

I do find it odd that UK, Italy, France, Belgium and Spain are all getting pummelled, yet Germany is so low, not just a little bit behind, but miles way from those nations in terms of  death rates

[Spider]

15 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Aye we’re now 15 deaths per million in front of France after we chucked the 4K nursing home deaths into our totals, no doubt some folk will be happy about that just to push some weird political agenda.  

Stop being weird.

no one wants any of this.

But you were so adamant it wouldn’t happen without anything to back it up.

I wasn’t even bringing you into this but your bizarre insistence that you never get things wrong has brought you out.

You were wrong, but it isn’t as important as you’re making it.

[Escobarp]

3 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

That’s mad!!

not into all that, my mates missus has him on find my location or something and constantly monitoring him

time for the old Nokia😀
 

 

Aye I’ve got location. Services etc switched off on my mine. Not that I’ve owt to hide of course 😁

a lot to be said for old style phones 

[Spider]

Just now, Escobarp said:

Aye I’ve got location. Services etc switched off on my mine. Not that I’ve owt to hide of course 😁

a lot to be said for old style phones 

Just get a burner.

Thats what my mate does 

[peelyfeet]

12 hours ago, Winchester White said:

Not heard much on the poorer countries of Africa, have they managed to swerve this outbreak?

Doesnt look like it - the reporting of data is woeful but it looks like East Africa ( South Somalia, Sudan, Rwanda etc) and Yemen look like they're going to get it the worst. 

20 African countries haven't reported tested numbers yet -  some have single figure ICU beds for the whole country,  there's already areas with famine  (18 million starving in Yemen) 

I think its going to be awful, they've got virtually no healthcare system, some economies can't sustain lockdowns for any length of time, poor sanitation etc. 

There's reports of Rwandan officers raping and killing people, unlawfully arresting and detaining people in sports stadiums

[Mounts Kipper]

24 minutes ago, Spider said:

Stop being weird.

no one wants any of this.

But you were so adamant it wouldn’t happen without anything to back it up.

I wasn’t even bringing you into this but your bizarre insistence that you never get things wrong has brought you out.

You were wrong, but it isn’t as important as you’re making it.

What’s really bizarre is your insistence that I’ve ever said I never get anything wrong. 
 

 My original comment were that didn’t think we’d have as many deaths as Italy/Spain,  my view was that the Mediterranean close knit family gatherings  and living in multi generational families might have impacted on the figures in those countries, and while we are still behind both counties in deaths per million and quite a long way behind Spain in particular (despite both countries locking down more than the U.K.) it’s still more deaths than I thought we’d see, sadly some loons seem to welcome each and every daily death rate update just so they can make a political point.
 

Just for the record these folk seem to enjoy pointing out we’re 2nd worst performing country in the world when clearly we are not.... yet. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[Zico]

38 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Aye we’re now 15 deaths per million in front of France after we chucked the 4K nursing home deaths into our totals, no doubt some folk will be happy about that just to push some weird political agenda.  

it's not about political agendas or anything

you were adamant that we wouldn't have it as bad as Italy because the Mediterranean lifestyle means they are far more susceptible, or it was no coincidence that the hotspots were fashion hubs and all the chinese who went home to chinese new year probably worked in fashion etc

it's nothing to do with that, and now it's shown we are getting as bad as anyone, you're now saying we're not as bad as belgium

face it, it's bad, and pointing this out doesn't make you a traitor to the government

you also said "perhaps Trump has it covered." recently, but that was before his disinfectant comments

it's not political point scoring at all, but don't get defensive because you've been pulled up in your flawed thinking, that's all it is

[Spider]

2 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

What’s really bizarre is your insistence that I’ve ever said I never get anything wrong. 
 

 My original comment were that didn’t think we’d have as many deaths as Italy/Spain,  my view was that the Mediterranean close knit family gatherings  and living in multi generational families might have impacted on the figures in those countries, and while we are still behind both counties in deaths per million and quite a long way behind Spain in particular (despite both countries locking down more than the U.K.) it’s still more deaths than I thought we’d see, sadly some loons seem to welcome each and every daily death rate update just so they can make a political point.
 

Just for the record these folk seem to enjoy pointing out we’re 2nd worst performing country in the world when clearly we are not.... yet. 

I’ve not got a single nipple right in Battlenips yet

But I’m happy to admit when I’m wrong 

[peelyfeet]

31 minutes ago, Sweep said:

There's nothing good about any of this, and I am sure that some will use it to push their own agendas.

Questions of course will need to be answered once this is all over, but now isn't the time to be asking them

I do find it odd that UK, Italy, France, Belgium and Spain are all getting pummelled, yet Germany is so low, not just a little bit behind, but miles way from those nations in terms of  death rates

They developed their own test 3 weeks before everyone else in Europe,

They already had multiple times more laboratory capacity to deal with the tests (because they're the biggest pharma exporter in the world), this enabled them to locate the infected at a much earlier stage, who therefore isolated earlier, and so their infection rate was lower at an earlier stage - add in the lockdown, that's why basically.    

Germany's outbreak is what our 2nd outbreak would be more like, if it happens 

Edited April 30, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Tombwfc]

1 hour ago, Sweep said:

If we're being accurate, we're now ahead of France with deaths per million

 

Belgium though, wow, they're running away with it

 

Belgium include anyone who's suspected to have died from COVID, whether they've been tested or not. When it comes to overall excess mortality they're lower than Italy and Spain and I'm sure we'll overtake them in that metric when the next set of ONS data comes out.

Really, whether we end up 2nd, 3rd or 4th in whatever table doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. Fact is, we've been one of the worst hit countries in the world. Everything beyond that is up for debate.

[peelyfeet]

8 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

 My original comment were that didn’t think we’d have as many deaths as Italy/Spain,  my view was that the Mediterranean close knit family gatherings  and living in multi generational families might have impacted on the figures in those countries, and while we are still behind both counties in deaths per million and quite a long way behind Spain in particular (despite both countries locking down more than the U.K.) it’s still more deaths than I thought we’d see, sadly some loons seem to welcome each and every daily death rate update just so they can make a political point.
 

I'm fairly sure that its going to be the timing of restrictions, border closure etc, early testing tracing and isolation of population, that is going to prove to be the main factor.

population density, lifestyle etc will have an effect, but only in a comparative manner - so not much difference between Western European countries -  Poor countries will have faster spread in local areas, but probably slower across nations because of poor transport links etc.

There's still a long way to go, were about half way through the beginning - future government decisions and economic wealth are going to be the driving forces. 

[Escobarp]

Rudy it’s time for some knockers pal 

[Rudy]

[Traf]

 

[Escobarp]

5 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

😋

[peelyfeet]

20 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

 

Just for the record these folk seem to enjoy pointing out we’re 2nd worst performing country in the world when clearly we are not.... yet. 

We fucked up, we had 2 weeks more notice than Western Europe, yet our outcome is going to be the same in this mini peak  

Barring Sweden and Russia, everyone who got it after us (some only a day or 2) locked down earlier in their pandemic timeline, have had nowhere near the cases or deaths that we've had (most have below 10 times less deaths per pop), and they aren't seeing exponential growth.  

Can't spin a good news story out of us in this mini peak I'm afraid.

With viruses you pay the price for acting slowly, we delayed for 2 weeks, that's it. 

[Rudy]

@peelyfeet what does mini peak mean? Calm before the storm?

Edited April 30, 2020 by Rudy’s Message

[ProfessorWoland]

CNN has a critical piece on the UK response. Worth a read. 

On the Cummings SAGE issue they link it to the conflict between epidemiologists and modellers:

 

Quote

It's no secret that Dominic Cummings, Johnson's top adviser, has a personal interest in scientific modeling. So it's little surprise that public health experts were enraged when the government was forced to admit last week that Cummings had attended SAGE meetings, which are supposed to be independent advisory forums. The government said he attended in order to understand the scientific debate around the virus and its behavior.

Multiple members of SAGE and groups that advise it defended their impartiality to CNN. "The debate is robust, and everyone sets out their case clearly and articulately," said one member, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. "There are lots of people criticizing from the sidelines, but I think it's possible those people are angry they have been left on the sidelines."

A source who advises SAGE said: "Frankly, I find it hard to see that the presence of Cummings makes much difference. We're not talking about shrinking violets."

However, the source went on to express concern at how scientific evidence is being presented. "Science is not homogenous... The best SAGE can do is present imperfect material. The government has been able to take advantage of the public view of science as a voice of certainty, and present some of its decisions as being taken with more concrete certainty than they have."

There's some other interesting quotes from figures with good credentials who are critical of the timing of lockdown etc. 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by ProfessorWoland

[Casino]

It is if course possible that delaying kills more up front but less in the long run

Just chucking it out there 

And at some point, emotion is going to have to be taken out of this and consideration given to economics

[Spider]

I need to get back to work because much more home schooling and I’m going to strangle someone 

[ProfessorWoland]

15 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

@peelyfeet what does mini peak mean? Calm before the storm?

Clearly a rave metaphor being employed here. Probably a very good track, it's going to get a great reception, but the DJ isn't ready to take you over the top just yet...

 

 

 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

9 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

We fucked up, we had 2 weeks more notice than Western Europe, yet our outcome is going to be the same in this mini peak  

Barring Sweden and Russia, everyone who got it after us (some only a day or 2) locked down earlier in their pandemic timeline, have had nowhere near the cases or deaths that we've had (most have below 10 times less deaths per pop), and they aren't seeing exponential growth.  

Can't spin a good news story out of us in this mini peak I'm afraid.

With viruses you pay the price for acting slowly, we delayed for 2 weeks, that's it. 

Let's wait and see what it's like when it's all over, before such proclamations eh.

Cultural factors have to come into play, population density, all the things you know about.

We've got plenty not adhering to rules because they're cunts. Scientists have to build in the cunt factor.

It's a bit cheap to simply say we should have done this, that and t'other: you and me might be willing to stay in lockdown but many others aren't.

We need to see what happens with regard to second peaks etc before making such statements.

I'll wait for full investigations by relevant parties before making judgements, I'm sure their conclusions will highlight any mistakes and make recommendations for the future

[peelyfeet]

5 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

@peelyfeet what does mini peak mean? Calm before the storm?

It's just a manufactured peak, not a natural one - I doubt we'll have another one as bad as this now,

We're getting increasingly better at tracking tracing and isolating

It's awful to say, but a large number of the very very old and frail will have already died (It happens with seasonal flu - if a large number die from flu one winter, we usually see much less the winter after )

They are worried about the 2nd peak in Autumn onwards, because seasonal flu will be back then, and if you have both at the same time, its nasty

[Steejay]

8 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

Borrow @Steejay Nokia 6310i or the Colonels old James Bond style flip up ☎️

As you know, I've lost one or two phones since then...🙄

[mickbrown]

2 hours ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Aye we’re now 15 deaths per million in front of France after we chucked the 4K nursing home deaths into our totals, no doubt some folk will be happy about that just to push some weird political agenda.  

To be honest Mounts, you’re the other way. Insisting things ain’t that bad to push your political agenda.