Coronavirus

[Zico]

And if SAGE didn't mention fatigue and Cummings says he was all for lockdown who the fuck decided not too?!?

[Escobarp]

1 minute ago, ZicoKelly said:

No but BJ definitely used it as an excuse/reason as to why we'd not gone into lockdown yet when others had and all Eyes were on Italy

And where did he get that from as per my previous post? 
 

or are we saying van tam et al are in cahoots to cover up the governments mistakes and are lying about the influence of behavioral scientists in this?

[Zico]

Just now, peelyfeet said:

I picked Rome because its similar in size to Lombardy so its easy to compare theyve had 414 deaths - Lombardy 13.5K  - if you want to get granular you can look at any region in Italy, compare the populations, and death rates

Lombardy is miles ahead of anywhere - multiple times more cases and deaths

No other Italian region gets anywhere near -  and all the other regions are much closer to each other.

The pattern is the same if you compare cities in other countries

The areas that have fared worse are overwhelmingly the areas where they had early outbreaks and therefore the lockdowns took place later on in their timeline of pandemic spread.

There are reasons why the disease took hold earlier in Lombardy, London NYC etc,  including cultural factors, transport hubs, population density etc, but we shouldn't confuse that with the fact that all around the world we are seeing less deaths and earlier lockdown restrictions being lifted 

 

I was being facetious with regards previous comments that the Mediterranean lifestyle was a reason why Italy had it so bad

[peelyfeet]

Just now, ZicoKelly said:

I was being facetious with regards previous comments that the Mediterranean lifestyle was a reason why Italy had it so bad

it's ok mate I know - I was posting a similar reply to mounts and put it into one reply, soz   

[mickbrown]

1 minute ago, Escobarp said:

I’m not talking about the timing as I think it’s Clear we were later. That’s indisputable. 
 

 I’m merely stating that behavioral science has played a part and continues to do so in our decision making. This is directly from the medical boffins and I think it was professor van tam who actually stated it. 
 

unless he was lying? 

Yep, it will, definitely. The way we have acted will inform how the lockdown is lifted I imagine

And, I know they talked about fatigue at the start, but like I said, I think it was too late by then anyway. Dunno if it was to try and justify us being late in acting or not. And I don't mean in a cynical way, but more by way of an explanation.

[peelyfeet]

39 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Which countries are these? Not ones that are geographically remote or have very low populations, preferably countries similar to the UK both geographically and demographically and who have similar travel hubs like London. I can only think of one who are anything like us and are doing much better.      

see above mounts - my error, it's not really countries we should look - its cities / areas.  pick any you like,  there's loads 

[peelyfeet]

1 minute ago, mickbrown said:

Yep, it will, definitely. The way we have acted will inform how the lockdown is lifted I imagine

And, I know they talked about fatigue at the start, but like I said, I think it was too late by then anyway. Dunno if it was to try and justify us being late in acting or not. And I don't mean in a cynical way, but more by way of an explanation.

they underestimated the spread and over-estimated the date of the peak - they thought the peak was going to be in June  

[Tonge moor green jacket]

1 hour ago, peelyfeet said:

The countries that locked down earlier are coming out of lockdown sooner than those that didn't, they're having shorter lockdowns, less deaths and starting the economy back up earlier, sorry but that is happening now, and in my book that's better.

What is the sweeping statement that I've made that's irked you?   

would you rather I just posted some links that show this?

They have fewer deaths at the moment. Wait until it's all over. Then throw in all other factors. Population, population density, age, health, availability of supportive industry etc, etc.

None of these are accounted for in purely numerical terms on a daily basis.

Also add in that our lockdown has been nothing like as strict as others, and then look at the disagreement amongst folk over that, and whether it should have been more or less stringent.

You've plastered the place this facts and graphs, but they can only show where we are up to now.

Before you pronounce we've fucked it up, perhaps put your scientific head on more squarely and make assess the data when it's available. When it's all in, if an inquiry says we fucked it up then I'll accept it.

Until then, from a bloke who has proven knowledge in this area, I would have expected a far more sensible and less sensationalist comment than "we've fucked it up".

That belongs on Twitter, Facebook and amongst the screechers who throw their arms into the air and immediately want to blame someone else.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

1 hour ago, Sweep said:

Beautiful logs.

[Sweep]

Just now, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Beautiful logs.

they look tremendously seasoned

[Tonge moor green jacket]

30 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

I’m not talking about the timing as I think it’s Clear we were later. That’s indisputable. 
 

 I’m merely stating that behavioral science has played a part and continues to do so in our decision making. This is directly from the medical boffins and I think it was professor van tam who actually stated it. 
 

unless he was lying? 

Can't argue with his facts mate.

Despite the fact this was openly discussed on government daily briefings in the early stages, it was obviously made up.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

4 minutes ago, Sweep said:

they look tremendously seasoned

It would be great to find out wooden tit.

[mickbrown]

1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Can't argue with his facts mate.

Despite the fact this was openly discussed on government daily briefings in the early stages, it was obviously made up.

Read

[Tonge moor green jacket]

4 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

Read

Write.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

Ruler of Dubai bought 60 tonnes of PPE for the NHS. What a guy.

[Rudy]

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

They have fewer deaths at the moment. Wait until it's all over. Then throw in all other factors. Population, population density, age, health, availability of supportive industry etc, etc.

None of these are accounted for in purely numerical terms on a daily basis.

Also add in that our lockdown has been nothing like as strict as others, and then look at the disagreement amongst folk over that, and whether it should have been more or less stringent.

You've plastered the place this facts and graphs, but they can only show where we are up to now.

Before you pronounce we've fucked it up, perhaps put your scientific head on more squarely and make assess the data when it's available. When it's all in, if an inquiry says we fucked it up then I'll accept it.

Until then, from a bloke who has proven knowledge in this area, I would have expected a far more sensible and less sensationalist comment than "we've fucked it up".

That belongs on Twitter, Facebook and amongst the screechers who throw their arms into the air and immediately want to blame someone else.

You’d expect of Mick, but not the Peely One,

[peelyfeet]

50 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

They have fewer deaths at the moment. Wait until it's all over. Then throw in all other factors. Population, population density, age, health, availability of supportive industry etc, etc.

None of these are accounted for in purely numerical terms on a daily basis.

Also add in that our lockdown has been nothing like as strict as others, and then look at the disagreement amongst folk over that, and whether it should have been more or less stringent.

You've plastered the place this facts and graphs, but they can only show where we are up to now.

Before you pronounce we've fucked it up, perhaps put your scientific head on more squarely and make assess the data when it's available. When it's all in, if an inquiry says we fucked it up then I'll accept it.

Until then, from a bloke who has proven knowledge in this area, I would have expected a far more sensible and less sensationalist comment than "we've fucked it up".

That belongs on Twitter, Facebook and amongst the screechers who throw their arms into the air and immediately want to blame someone else.

I think you might have misinterpreted what I said - I'll try and clarify - if you disagree fair enough.

In my opinon :-

"We (the UK, not blaming anyone in particular) fucked up the mini peak"

In relation to most Western Countries that had outbreaks after Italy and Spain, 

I think this because I can see that they locked down earlier into their pandemic spread,  and I can see that they are now coming out of, or have announced plans to come out of, lockdown,  before us and with proportionally many less deaths 

That's all I said, and I stand by it.

You've had several little digs at me,  and said wait until the data is in - it's already in mate - I'm measuring how we've done in terms of our early response, and the current consequences - not the decisions the government are making today, nor how it will all end.

If you reply with an argument or another dig, I'm not going to reply, its just my opinion, might be wrong in time.

If you disagree, let me know why, you don't need to have a dig 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by peelyfeet

[mickbrown]

3 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

You’d expect of Mick, but not the Peely One,

Rah, rah😀

[Guest]

Just now, mickbrown said:

Rah, rah😀

😜

[peelyfeet]

should get the restriction reduction plan next week according to bozza

[Tonge moor green jacket]

55 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

I think you might have misinterpreted what I said - I'll try and clarify - if you disagree fair enough.

In my opinon :-

"We (the UK, not blaming anyone in particular) fucked up the mini peak"

In relation to most Western Countries that had outbreaks after Italy and Spain, 

I think this because I can see that they locked down earlier into their pandemic spread,  and I can see that they are now coming out of, or have announced plans to come out of, lockdown,  before us and with proportionally many less deaths 

That's all I said, and I stand by it.

You've had several little digs at me,  and said wait until the data is in - it's already in mate - I'm measuring how we've done in terms of our early response, and the current consequences - not the decisions the government are making today, nor how it will all end.

If you reply with an argument or another dig, I'm not going to reply, its just my opinion, might be wrong in time.

If you disagree, let me know why, you don't need to have a dig 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I know what you said. Simply, it doesn't seem a fair nor helpful thing to say.

I'd expect it of Mick, as he has an agenda. Please don't take my comments personally, I've grown to respect your input as it's been impartial and factual- that's what I found odd when you posted.

Take them as a back handed compliment!

Frankly, you may well be right, I don't have an opinion yet as it's simply too soon to assess.

I know you keep referring to analysis, but as I said before it's not purely about a numerical comparison. Far more to it.

It may also be part of the overall plan which accepts a bit more of the shitty stuff earlier in the piece, I don't know

This is what happened with Brexit, folk started chucking figures and graphs at each other from all over the place. Many in complete contradiction to each other which proved nowt.

In a few years time we'll be in a better position to judge.

 

[peelyfeet]

Just now, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I know what you said. Simply, it doesn't seem a fair nor helpful thing to say.

I'd expect it of Mick, as he has an agenda. Please don't take my comments personally, I've grown to respect your input as it's been impartial and factual- that's what I found odd when you posted.

Take them as a back handed compliment!

Frankly, you may well be right, I don't have an opinion yet as it's simply too soon to assess.

I know you keep referring to analysis, but as I said before it's not purely about a numerical comparison. Far more to it.

It may also be part of the overall plan which accepts a bit more of the shitty stuff earlier in the piece, I don't know

This is what happened with Brexit, folk started chucking figures and graphs at each other from all over the place. Many in complete contradiction to each other which proved nowt.

In a few years time we'll be in a better position to judge.

 

coolio - fight's off lads

[ProfessorWoland]

Just now, peelyfeet said:

coolio - fight's off lads

The longer you sustain conflict, the more tits will be posted. 

That's my working hypothesis based on the data so far. I could of course be wrong, there are many factors at work here. 

[peelyfeet]

3 hours ago, peelyfeet said:

COVID SYMPTOM TRACKER

If you're not the type to think that Big Brother is collecting your data for Bill Gates world domination plans,

please download this app and record your symptoms on a daily basis - it's run by kings college London, it will help the UK in managing the spread and lockdown restricton removal and it tells you a rough estimate of how many are infected in your area.

takes about 5 mins to set up and 10 seconds a day to update

 

https://covid.joinzoe.com/ 

if anyone missed this before, please have another look