Coronavirus

[Escobarp]

1 minute ago, Spider said:

Dead right.

Which is why their chief advisor doing what he did has more to it than just breaking some rules. It’s a psychology thing. That was a massive fuck up.

The economy needs to get running though, folk need to work. My missus could potentially be furloughed until September ffs. That’s bollocks.

 

Without wanting to get into that topic as I’m just avoiding it as is a waste of time now. I agree it was a huge fuck up and some will use it as an excuse. I like to think people in the main will be sensible about it. 
 

myself and my missus have fortunately not been furloughed so it’s had no financial impact on us, and touch wood, it shouldn’t. I just hope those who predict pent up demand being released once we get ships and businesses open are correct but I can’t see it other than a short term boom. As was seen with the supermarkets. 
 

there boom was 4 weeks and now they are all back to usual levels. That’s direct from one of the biggest supermarkets in the country. But even they have an additional cost base now from all the additional home deliveries they are doing  Which they need to do or lose the business. 
 

even when businesses reopen they will have this extra layer of cost, huge internal operational changes and it’s going to be very very tough 

[Ani]

There at some point a cross over on excess deaths. This is pretty morbid but true. The virus attacks certain vulnerable groups. So in the early weeks it has an impact on those whose immunity is compromised. So not only those that ‘would have died anyway’ go but also those who are weak but might have survived another 2-3 months. In essence this means in coming months excess deaths should drop and become negative as people have died ‘early’  
 

Hope this makes sense the words are very clumsy and not meant to offend anyone who has lost anyone close to them in recent weeks ! 

[Mounts Kipper]

35 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Yep and we reliant on folk being sensible and the minority not spoiling it for everyone else. Some freedoms are better than none and we need to make the most of them. In reality I expect some people to take the piss show a blatant disregard and we have a second wave in a few weeks. 
 

but even then the trade off between deaths and the economy will have to be balanced. I bet the tories now with hindsight wish they had lost the GE as whoever was in power at this time is on a hiding to nothing 

If labour had won I’d expect we’d of lockdown earlier and still wouldn’t be easing lockdown,  not sure if labour would have put the furlough scheme in place either, don’t think labour were anywhere near ready for government and I’m thankful it’s the Tories dealing with this, yes they’ve made plenty of mistakes but the alternative in my opinion would of been worse. 

[Escobarp]

18 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

If labour had won I’d expect we’d of lockdown earlier and still wouldn’t be easing lockdown,  not sure if labour would have put the furlough scheme in place either, don’t think labour were anywhere near ready for government and I’m thankful it’s the Tories dealing with this, yes they’ve made plenty of mistakes but the alternative in my opinion would of been worse. 

Problem I see it is that if labour has won that meant a corbyn government. That wouldn’t have been good imo. Starmer however has made an impressive start from what I’ve read. So you’re probably right mate. 

[Tombwfc]

58 minutes ago, ErnestTurnip said:

If the antibody test proves to be accurate and having had the virus is shown to mean you have (some) immunity then how would the folk of WW want us to use that over here, immunity cards and the like ?

It's only a discussion point for the time being, Germany have passed it to their Ethics Council because of the implications it has but it's an interesting one.

 

I think the antibody test is a bit of a red herring, as the amount of people who've had it is so low (circa 4m as per the latest ONS survey). The benefits of giving freedom to 7% of the population would be massively outweighed by the problems caused from incentivising everyone else to try and catch it.

[birch-chorley]

Aye 

Abotger one firmly in the camp of protecting the economy being priority number 1 now 

This whole thing was about protecting the NHS, giving them time to build up capacity (ventilators, beds, staff, testing, volunteers etc), we have done that and got over peak #1 without hospitals being ‘overrun’ - the track and trace really is the final piece of the jigsaw for me 

The next phrase should be...

Get back to normal / protect the economy / save livelihoods 

I really think the social distancing stuff needs to go, It’s just unworkable in many industries/ settings (schools, planes, trains, pubs, restaurants etc) and we can’t keep these places shut much longer without serious long term damage 

Another couple of weeks then let’s go with what we’ve got 

[Mounts Kipper]

5 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Aye 

Abotger one firmly in the camp of protecting the economy being priority number 1 now 

This whole thing was about protecting the NHS, giving them time to build up capacity (ventilators, beds, staff, testing, volunteers etc), we have done that and got over peak #1 without hospitals being ‘overrun’ - the track and trace really is the final piece of the jigsaw for me 

The next phrase should be...

Get back to normal / protect the economy / save livelihoods 

I really think the social distancing stuff needs to go, It’s just unworkable in many industries/ settings (schools, planes, trains, pubs, restaurants etc) and we can’t keep these places shut much longer without serious long term damage 

Another couple of weeks then let’s go with what we’ve got 

I’m for protecting the economy and getting as many folk back to work as possible however I’m concerned about kids going back to school, think that will cause a massive spike in cases, problem is how to get most folk back to work while kids are not at school, perhaps furlough one parent until schools return in September while the main household earner goes back to work. 

[Zico]

1 hour ago, Escobarp said:

Without wanting to sound heartless, because I’m not, we simply have to do this.    The economy needs to get going. It’s going to result in excess deaths it already has due to the extent of the lockdown measures and timing, but we have no choice. I suspect in reality they want to move the economy forward quicker but are holding back because of the human cost of doing so. 
 

Aye, i go into June with pretty much fuck all to do business wise, the last 2.5 months has killed off my client base, most of whom will be clients again once they are up and running 

I'm still not sending my daughter back to nursery though on Monday, not whilst social distancing is in place, as the nursery assistants simply can't do their jobs properly

So yes, let's do this, but, i have little confidence that we're ready, or that we'll be able to cope with another spike

And by cope, i don't mean the NHS, i mean the public, and by that I mean most have had enough and are now far less likely to listen to advice that tells them they need to revert to lockdown, if the worst happens

[Spider]

Those Nightingale hospitals were always there with the second wave in mind.

 

[Escobarp]

Just now, Spider said:

Those Nightingale hospitals were always there with the second wave in mind.

 

Not sure that’s true mate. We didn’t know how it would spread, how the public would adhere to the measures and what the effects in general were. I don’t see the second wave being as bad. We got wave one with no measures no idea what was going on. Now we at least have something so it should help 

[Spider]

4 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Not sure that’s true mate. We didn’t know how it would spread, how the public would adhere to the measures and what the effects in general were. I don’t see the second wave being as bad. We got wave one with no measures no idea what was going on. Now we at least have something so it should help 

Autumn/winter could be awful if the virus doesn’t mutate itself into something less damaging.

Distancing will be a thing of the past and if we’re all back at gigs and matches, it’s going to cause havoc.

A nice hot summer could be very useful.

[Escobarp]

6 minutes ago, Spider said:

Autumn/winter could be awful if the virus doesn’t mutate itself into something less damaging.

Distancing will be a thing of the past and if we’re all back at gigs and matches, it’s going to cause havoc.

A nice hot summer could be very useful.

I would agree but I genuinely don’t see us back at football and gigs. I certainly wouldn’t be going anyway 

[kent_white]

Track and trace will be launched. It will be an imperfect system on launch, just like it was in Germany. That'll largely be down to the fact that public health and been decimated in the past ten years. In a way that makes the NHS look like a rich uncle. 

But it will get better, just like it did in Germany. Providing people are patient.

[Spider]

9 minutes ago, kent_white said:

Track and trace will be launched. It will be an imperfect system on launch, just like it was in Germany. That'll largely be down to the fact that public health and been decimated in the past ten years. In a way that makes the NHS look like a rich uncle. 

But it will get better, just like it did in Germany. Providing people are patient.

Well if it’s not working within 24 hours, I’m going on Facebook being sarcastic about the government.

 

[jules_darby]

40 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

Aye, i go into June with pretty much fuck all to do business wise, the last 2.5 months has killed off my client base, most of whom will be clients again once they are up and running 

I'm still not sending my daughter back to nursery though on Monday, not whilst social distancing is in place, as the nursery assistants simply can't do their jobs properly

So yes, let's do this, but, i have little confidence that we're ready, or that we'll be able to cope with another spike

And by cope, i don't mean the NHS, i mean the public, and by that I mean most have had enough and are now far less likely to listen to advice that tells them they need to revert to lockdown, if the worst happens

My 2 go back to nursery this week

Looking forward to another semblance of normality

can’t remember if I posted this but I was in Manc on Thursday and it’s definitely gearing up to be “open”.

bars serving take outs; Schloss already setup to take folk in - screens up etc 

 

[Spider]

Brazil - doing very well.

[Tombwfc]

55 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Aye 

Abotger one firmly in the camp of protecting the economy being priority number 1 now 

This whole thing was about protecting the NHS, giving them time to build up capacity (ventilators, beds, staff, testing, volunteers etc), we have done that and got over peak #1 without hospitals being ‘overrun’ - the track and trace really is the final piece of the jigsaw for me 

The next phrase should be...

Get back to normal / protect the economy / save livelihoods 

I really think the social distancing stuff needs to go, It’s just unworkable in many industries/ settings (schools, planes, trains, pubs, restaurants etc) and we can’t keep these places shut much longer without serious long term damage 

Another couple of weeks then let’s go with what we’ve got 

 

If we do that, then surely we've tanked the economy already for nothing?

In three months of this we've achieved 40,000 deaths for 6.7% of the population to have been infected. With a lockdown. Extrapolate that out to the point we reach herd immunity (assuming that exists), and you're not far off the predictions for if we'd done nothing.

[Escobarp]

Just now, Tombwfc said:

 

If we do that, then surely we've tanked the economy already for nothing?

In three months of this we've achieved 40,000 deaths for 6.7% of the population to have been infected. With a lockdown. Extrapolate that out to the point we reach herd immunity (assuming that exists), and you're not far off the predictions for if we'd done nothing.

But if we carry on the economy would collapse and we would see unemployment at ridiculous levels and I mean ridiculous. It’s a lose lose whichever way you look at it. No?

[Ani]

33 minutes ago, Spider said:

Autumn/winter could be awful if the virus doesn’t mutate itself into something less damaging.

Distancing will be a thing of the past and if we’re all back at gigs and matches, it’s going to cause havoc.

A nice hot summer could be very useful.

The fact that the warm months will help fight the virus is actually an argument to ease lockdown sooner. 

[Ani]

44 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Not sure that’s true mate. We didn’t know how it would spread, how the public would adhere to the measures and what the effects in general were. I don’t see the second wave being as bad. We got wave one with no measures no idea what was going on. Now we at least have something so it should help 

I do think if there is another spike could see them used as Covid only hospitals with other hospitals being as far as possible Covid free rather than as at stage 1 normal hospitals trying to cope with Covid and other cases. 

[Escobarp]

Just now, Ani said:

I do think if there is another spike could see them used as Covid only hospitals with other hospitals being as far as possible Covid free rather than as at stage 1 normal hospitals trying to cope with Covid and other cases. 

Yes possibly I would just worry that potentially they aren’t as well equipped and staffed as usual icu departments etc. but I know nowt about hospitals so shall leave that to an expert to tell us if so 

[Ani]

2 hours ago, Winchester White said:

My 15 year old suffers with his mental health. This has been really hard for him. Thankfully, his councellor has been having sessions with him over facetime which have helped.

The slight easing of restrictions recently have been a godsend, he has been able to chat with a mate kicking a football about or go and sit in a friends garden for a bit for a natter. He also went for a walk with his girlfriend yesterday, I do wonder how much social distancing was achieved...

My Step daughter has a counsellor as she is normally the one that struggles but as she has b/f here has been mainly ok. 
Yoof is usually pretty laid back but he is basically missing his mates and the day to day banter in his office. 
Seeing him trying to cope has influenced my views on this. You have to trust them on social distancing and probably accept the gap may have been closed at times ! 
Hope your lad is doing ok. Last night Yoof was going to move to his dads for a few days as falling out with his mum and sister. Today seems better but it is so difficult for a 21 year old lad to be stuck in a house with us 4. 

[kent_white]

25 minutes ago, Spider said:

Well if it’s not working within 24 hours, I’m going on Facebook being sarcastic about the government.

 

😂😂😂

[birch-chorley]

20 minutes ago, Tombwfc said:

 

If we do that, then surely we've tanked the economy already for nothing?

In three months of this we've achieved 40,000 deaths for 6.7% of the population to have been infected. With a lockdown. Extrapolate that out to the point we reach herd immunity (assuming that exists), and you're not far off the predictions for if we'd done nothing.

Your assuming that the economy won’t tank anymore now no matter what we do going forward, I don’t agree, I think the economic impact will keep getting worse the longer some of these measures are in place. Comes a point where the economy needs to take priority over protecting the NHS, I think we are there 

The last three months should have helped us prepare to manage this through much better than if we had let it run from the start 

I still think people in the at risk groups should be shielded, they are more likely to burden the NHS, but the rest of us should crack on 

Testing and tracing will be key, if certain regions see a big flare up then you re start some of it in those areas. As things stand some areas have seen local businesses decimated and they have hardly had any cases, can’t carry on like that 

[Tombwfc]

24 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Your assuming that the economy won’t tank anymore now no matter what we do going forward, I don’t agree, I think the economic impact will keep getting worse the longer some of these measures are in place. Comes a point where the economy needs to take priority over protecting the NHS, I think we are there 

The last three months should have helped us prepare to manage this through much better than if we had let it run from the start 

I still think people in the at risk groups should be shielded, they are more likely to burden the NHS, but the rest of us should crack on 

Testing and tracing will be key, if certain regions see a big flare up then you re start some of it in those areas. As things stand some areas have seen local businesses decimated and they have hardly had any cases, can’t carry on like that 

 

There absolutely needs to be a balance, but other countries aren't just throwing their hands up and saying whatever will be will be.

Testing and tracing only work if the number of cases are low, and other measures are still in place. Remove social distancing (as you suggested) and you might as well not bother. By the time any of the 8,000 people getting infected every day develop symptoms (around five days for the symptoms, probably 48 hours for the test) they'll have been in close contact with loads of other people at work/the pub/shops. And we'd have no idea who most of those are.

The steps we're taking are broadly the right ones, on paper. It's the timing and trust in the message and what's actually being delivered that are concerning.

South Korea had 80 positive cases the other day and started shutting schools. We're re-opening ours at 2,000. It does feel quite a lot like we've mismanaged the first bit and are now rushing to catch up to everyone else.

Edited May 30, 2020 by Tombwfc