Are we going up?

[Rudy]

1 minute ago, Zico said:

They seem keen to settle on the promotion/top 3 bets 

 

Not on us winning the league though. 

[Casino]

for the first time, based on the current table, i think its fair to say we should go up

[Guest]

34 minutes ago, Rudy said:

@boltondiver @Zico what are your cash outs now?

I cashed out after Easter.

 

[Traf]

Just now, Mr Grey said:

NEVER CASH OUT

Correct.

[Rudy]

19 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

I cashed out after Easter.

 

For how much and what was the potential to win?

[Dr. Feelgood]

I suppose it only confirms that I'm a football fan, but I can't help looking at that table & thinking "fck. If we'd just won against Newport".

 

[Ani]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Feelgood said:

I suppose it only confirms that I'm a football fan, but I can't help looking at that table & thinking "fck. If we'd just won against Newport".

 

How about the red card v Morecambe ? 
2 for us, 1 off them. 

[Dr. Feelgood]

2 minutes ago, Ani said:

How about the red card v Morecambe ? 
2 for us, 1 off them. 

Yep.

.... & the Tramps from Wirral taking 6pts off us.

The trouble, of course, is that once you start with this revisionism every point is up for grabs. But it's irresistible. 

[Leyther_Matt]

I stopped doing the what if’s when we pulled three points from nowhere against Barrow. 

Bet365 offering me £577 cash out from what would be a £1400 total if we won the league. I’m sticking with it. 

[Traf]

20 minutes ago, Leyther_Matt said:

I stopped doing the what if’s when we pulled three points from nowhere against Barrow. 

Bet365 offering me £577 cash out from what would be a £1400 total if we won the league. I’m sticking with it. 

I never advise cashout, but that's actually generous odds.

[Ani]

47 minutes ago, Traf said:

I never advise cashout, but that's actually generous odds.

Presume it must be an each way bet ? With that return 

If not cash it out, take £300 and put the rest on us to win league at 9/2

Edited April 14, 2021 by Ani
Odds corrected

[jmjhb]

On 11/04/2021 at 10:34, jmjhb said:

56.6% chance of Top 3

5.7% 1st

20.2% 2nd

30.7% 3rd

76 points gives a 44.4% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 69.2% chance

78.2% chance of Top 3

11.7% 1st

30.3% 2nd

36.3% 3rd

76 points gives a 44.6% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 71.6% chance

7 more points needed, lads

Edited April 14, 2021 by jmjhb

[jeep]

52 minutes ago, Traf said:

I never advise cashout, but that's actually generous odds.

Can you explain why you should never cash out?

[Tonge moor green jacket]

1 minute ago, jeep said:

Can you explain why you should never cash out?

He does a mathematical bit, that shows the offer isn't particularly good value.

I'm sure he'll explain it more fully, but if Crawley do us a favour on Friday, which I have a sneaky feeling they will, then the offer will no doubt rise.

[Casino]

35 minutes ago, jmjhb said:

 

7 more points needed, lads

depends when any points come imo

particulary re the morecambe game

[Ani]

27 minutes ago, jeep said:

Can you explain why you should never cash out?

Because you are reducing your odds and gambling done properly like Traf and Garp is about value.

So you bet £100 on Bolton to win the league at 10/1 to return £1100 because you think the chances of it happening are less than 10/1 (remember this is proper betting not fans)

Bolton do well and their odds are now evens. They may offer £450 as cash out, if you take it you have accepted 7/2 as your odds instead of 10/1.

If you put the £450 on at evens you only win £900. Cash out are always in the bookies favour by 10-15% which is a massive margin for no risk. You have to take the emotion out that it is a win and often a good chunk of money, the value call is always (nearly) to let it run.

[MickyD]

1 hour ago, Leyther_Matt said:

I stopped doing the what if’s when we pulled three points from nowhere against Barrow. 

Bet365 offering me £577 cash out from what would be a £1400 total if we won the league. I’m sticking with it. 

577 on Bolton winning league is 9/2 would give £2596.50.

cash out and put it all back on

[Ani]

3 minutes ago, MickyD said:

577 on Bolton winning league is 9/2 would give £2596.50.

cash out and put it all back on

I think part of the bet must be each way, so the place element will be paying out at about 80% of full value, the win element will be about 7/2 at a guess

[Leyther_Matt]

59 minutes ago, Ani said:

Presume it must be an each way bet ? With that return 

If not cash it out, take £300 and put the rest on us to win league at 9/2

 

5 minutes ago, MickyD said:

577 on Bolton winning league is 9/2 would give £2596.50.

cash out and put it all back on

There are about 18 different bets, but the majority are each way outrights, so I’d rather take the chance. £650ish for top three or £1400 for winning the league. Plus there’s the very much non-mathematical superstition of not wanting to jinx us 😂

[Burndens Bogs]

1 hour ago, jmjhb said:

78.2% chance of Top 3

11.7% 1st

30.3% 2nd

36.3% 3rd

76 points gives a 44.6% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 71.6% chance

7 more points needed, lads

Fuck it, win our last 5 games and we go up as champions.

[captainmed]

4 hours ago, jmjhb said:

78.2% chance of Top 3

11.7% 1st

30.3% 2nd

36.3% 3rd

76 points gives a 44.6% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 71.6% chance

7 more points needed, lads

76 points - 55% chance of promotion. 

77 points - 75% chance.

Win @ Grimsby and we are almost there. 

 

[Guest]

Personally think we will get promotion against Exeter 

[Traf]

8 hours ago, Ani said:

Because you are reducing your odds and gambling done properly like Traf and Garp is about value.

So you bet £100 on Bolton to win the league at 10/1 to return £1100 because you think the chances of it happening are less than 10/1 (remember this is proper betting not fans)

Bolton do well and their odds are now evens. They may offer £450 as cash out, if you take it you have accepted 7/2 as your odds instead of 10/1.

If you put the £450 on at evens you only win £900. Cash out are always in the bookies favour by 10-15% which is a massive margin for no risk. You have to take the emotion out that it is a win and often a good chunk of money, the value call is always (nearly) to let it run.

Pretty much this.
Bookies always make a profit, despite what they say. There's always a margin involved.

For example the odds of heads v tails is 50/50 ie even money.
A bookie would offer you 9/10, so in the long run you'd lose.

This also explains why multiples / accas are the bookies pension. 
If you get 90% of true value off each bet, by the time you get to 7 selections in an acca, the bet is down to less than 48% of true worth.

 

But I digress : cash out was invented by and is offered by the bookies.
Ask yourself why? Altruism or profit?

[Zico]

I'm not even sure why it's up for debate 

Of course cash out favours the bookie 

They are giving you a chance to take less money on something that hasn't happened yet and might not 

On the flip side they could lose a lot themselves, like that guy who cashed out on the horses for 275k, stood to win 500k, and it fell at the first fence 

Since when has a bookie been in it for good will and benevolence?!

[Traf]

43 minutes ago, Zico said:

I'm not even sure why it's up for debate 

Because people keep asking why some of us insist on not cashing out.