jmjhb Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 (edited) On 21/04/2021 at 13:01, jmjhb said: Hmm, not sure I agree with this - despite winning last night our chances of top 3 have gone down 5%: 46.1% chance of Top 3 0.8% 1st 7.0% 2nd 38.2% 3rd 77 points gives a 41.6% chance of promotion 78 points gives a 62.8% chance 89.1% chance of Top 3 4.2% 1st 28.9% 2nd 56.0% 3rd This is really where it gets fucking odd: 77 points gives a 65.7% chance of promotion but 78 points gives a 48.8% chance of promotion 79 obviously is 100% Edited April 25, 2021 by jmjhb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 25, 2021 Site Supporter Share Posted April 25, 2021 That's definitely bonkers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainmed Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Yes. Great reaction to the defeat @ Grimsby. With just one more point there is a 60% chance of promotion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 I’ve not given up on champs yet, unlikely but not unthinkable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregbwfc Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, jmjhb said: 89.1% chance of Top 3 4.2% 1st 28.9% 2nd 56.0% 3rd This is really where it gets fucking odd: 77 points gives a 65.7% chance of promotion but 78 points gives a 48.8% chance of promotion 79 obviously is 100% It looks crazy. But is it because both Morecambe and Tranmere can't finish on 77 but can get to 78. Weird though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 25, 2021 Site Supporter Share Posted April 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, gregbwfc said: It looks crazy. But is it because both Morecambe and Tranmere can't finish on 77 but can get to 78. Weird though. Sort of makes sense, but as neither play us again, their games have no bearing on our points potential, therefore 77 would have a lower percentage than 78 wouldn't it? 78 means two draws for us, therfore no goal difference change. 77 means a reduction in goal difference. For those two clubs 78 means a goal difference improvement of at least two, which pushes Morecambe above us, and maybe Tranmere too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregbwfc Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Think you've summed it up perfectly 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razaldo9 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Definitely strange, but it's so close I don't think we even need the percentages now. Down to 2 games. I'm not sure either Morecambe or Tranmere win 2 so we may only need a point come the end. Hope we get 3 next week to make sure though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onefinfrandsen Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: I’ve not given up on champs yet, unlikely but not unthinkable. Real chance of runners up, especially Cambridge have Grimsby last game who may need to win themselves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 2nd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 25, 2021 Site Supporter Share Posted April 25, 2021 Just for fun, Cheltenham to get a draw and a loss next two. Cambridge draw and we win at the weekend. Three way split amongst 3 promoted sides last game for the title. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted April 25, 2021 Site Supporter Share Posted April 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said: Just for fun, Cheltenham to get a draw and a loss next two. Cambridge draw and we win at the weekend. Three way split amongst 3 promoted sides last game for the title. And an incident at our game delays us for 10 minutes so we’re aware both Cheltenham and Cambridge have lost and all we need to do is defend our 5 goal lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 25, 2021 Site Supporter Share Posted April 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, MickyD said: And an incident at our game delays us for 10 minutes so we’re aware both Cheltenham and Cambridge have lost and all we need to do is defend our 5 goal lead. Much to the chagrin of WS63. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burndens Bogs Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 1 hour ago, jmjhb said: 89.1% chance of Top 3 4.2% 1st 28.9% 2nd 56.0% 3rd This is really where it gets fucking odd: 77 points gives a 65.7% chance of promotion but 78 points gives a 48.8% chance of promotion 79 obviously is 100% Can't get my head round why we only have a 4.2% chance of winning the league? We're only 2 points behind the leaders ffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 25, 2021 Site Supporter Share Posted April 25, 2021 Just now, Burndens Bogs said: Can't get my head round why we only have a 4.2% chance of winning the league? We're only 2 points behind the leaders ffs. Think it's because they've a game in hand. Given the other stats are a bit weird, that one may be bollocks too though. Just need Carlisle to make it interesting on Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweep Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Burndens Bogs said: Can't get my head round why we only have a 4.2% chance of winning the league? We're only 2 points behind the leaders ffs. I assume it's down to them also having a game in hand, and a huge goal difference on us Edited April 25, 2021 by Sweep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainmed Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 1 hour ago, jmjhb said: 89.1% chance of Top 3 4.2% 1st 28.9% 2nd 56.0% 3rd This is really where it gets fucking odd: 77 points gives a 65.7% chance of promotion but 78 points gives a 48.8% chance of promotion 79 obviously is 100% This is surely incorrect. If we get to 77 points, we go up if neither Morecambe or Tranmere win their last two games. Similarly, if we get to 78 points, we go up if neither Morecambe or Tranmere win their last two games. Therefore, the probability of going up with 78 points is surely the same as with 77 points (and is equal to the probability of neither Morecambe or Tranmere winning their last two games). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUREADY2ROLL Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 2 hours ago, MickyD said: And an incident at our game delays us for 10 minutes so we’re aware both Cheltenham and Cambridge have lost and all we need to do is defend our 5 goal lead. And one of the posters is moaning that we have missed an easy chance to make it 6-0 and wants IE sacked. Hughmongus then comes on and says IE should have won the league by 25 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MalcolmW Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 2 hours ago, captainmed said: This is surely incorrect. If we get to 77 points, we go up if neither Morecambe or Tranmere win their last two games. Similarly, if we get to 78 points, we go up if neither Morecambe or Tranmere win their last two games. Therefore, the probability of going up with 78 points is surely the same as with 77 points (and is equal to the probability of neither Morecambe or Tranmere winning their last two games). Not quite the same. If we have 78 and Cambridge lose their last 2 games we are ahead of them, but if we have 77 we are behind them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainmed Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, MalcolmW said: Not quite the same. If we have 78 and Cambridge lose their last 2 games we are ahead of them, but if we have 77 we are behind them. Yes I didn’t even consider Cambridge. So therefore the point that the analysis is incorrect still stands. I think that this, along with my point, shows that the probability of going up with 78 points, is definitely HIGHER than the probability of going up with 77. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZiggyStardust Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 just looked at the site. Not sure if its the same site that jmjhb looked at, but: 76: 27.3 % chance of promotion. 77: 63.3% 78: 66.1% 79,80 & 82: 100% http://www.probs4.club/p4cTeam/Bolton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MalcolmW Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 35 minutes ago, captainmed said: Yes I didn’t even consider Cambridge. So therefore the point that the analysis is incorrect still stands. I think that this, along with my point, shows that the probability of going up with 78 points, is definitely HIGHER than the probability of going up with 77. Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted April 25, 2021 Moderators Share Posted April 25, 2021 Fuck me Talk about nerds with stats and spreadsheets We are 100% going up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted April 25, 2021 Moderators Share Posted April 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr Grey said: Its nerdy end of the season time 🤓 I'm all for stats and stuff but to be arguing the toss over a 63.3% chance of going up or a 65.7% chance is in "never kissed a girl free of charge" territory Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmjhb Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 54 minutes ago, ZiggyStardust said: just looked at the site. Not sure if its the same site that jmjhb looked at, but: 76: 27.3 % chance of promotion. 77: 63.3% 78: 66.1% 79,80 & 82: 100% http://www.probs4.club/p4cTeam/Bolton It is, but I was reading off a different chart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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