birch-chorley

Spending hundreds of billions of pounds making millions of people unemployed? It doesn’t sound like the Economy came first to me

@ZicoKelly I think the Australia followed a similar path to many of the Asian countries, stopping incoming flights early doors so the problem was only a small on to begin with (think the likes of Taiwan did this even better) Of course, with hindsight that would have been great However, when Trump tried blocking flights from China he got dogs abuse for it, including from the WHO if I recall. Likewise when he stopped flights coming in from the EU in early March

Appreciate that’s a forecast for 2021 but still, 36th out of the top 37 countries, hardly indicates a policy of putting the economy first these last 9 months In terms of where we are now, we have the worst GDP performance out of the top 7 economies. Again, that doesn’t imply a policy of economy first for me We went late so had to lockdown longer, that did more damage to our economy vs the others who went in earlier and came out quicker. If it was all about the economy then we would have gone in later and come out earlier surely Weve managed to perform poorly for both economic and health data despite spending more money than anyone else (all relative to size), that’s due to poor management of the situation from our government (vs our competitive set) Another piece here that makes for a decent read... https://www.ft.com/content/1f52fd2b-7daf-418e-be8b-acc38f819b8d The UK has spent more money fighting coronavirus than almost all comparable countries but still languishes towards the bottom of league tables of economic performance in 2020 and deaths caused by the virus, according to Financial Times research.

The OECD 4 weeks back... The UK is set to suffer more economic pain from the coronavirus crisis than any other leading economy apart from Argentina, the OECD said on Tuesday, highlighting the spread of the virus and deep downturn across Britain. https://www.ft.com/content/f2655b26-c493-463e-9df6-1210cebc28b9 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/01/government-covid-oecd-uk-growth-forecast

The fact that our Economy has performed worse than all but Argentina suggests that we haven’t put the economy before health I guess we did in those first couple of weeks when herd immunity was the strategy, others went into lockdown earlier (Italy, Spain, France etc) but since then I think it’s been massively in favour of health

I would say our biggest issue wasn't rushing, quite the opposite, we did things too late. We were one of the last countries to come out of lockdown 1, hardly rushing for me However, I get the point your trying to make. I would caveat it though and say that I think things change once a vaccine is in circulation Once you have a vaccine the end of the road should be the same, get 15m vaccinated and it’s job done. No reason why ‘rushing things through’ I.e moving down the tiers should delay the roll out of the vaccination programme We should be at a point very soon (when this next vaccine has been approved) that we know roughly when the vulnerable will be immune (by a couple of weeks either way)

I think your right with March for the most vulnerable 15m getting sorted However I don’t think we should all follow really tight restrictions (Tier 4) from now until 99% of the risk has gone We should be moving down the Tiers as the vaccine is rolled out and the risk decreases

No I read the article back when our government was cock waving that we were first to approve the vaccine and would get 1m a week out It’s the BBC so I’d like to think the reporting is fairly robust in terms of how the vaccine is transported It’s not unreasonable to think that this is just another in a long line of fuck ups (see PPE, track and trace etc etc)

It was Van Tam that said getting 15m vaccinated removes 99% of the risk, he seemed quite confident with that Youd like to think with 99% of the risk gone that we would all be in Tier 1 at least, if not back to ‘normal’ all be it with some bits remaining like masks etc until it’s gone Question is, how long to vaccinate 15m and remove 99% of the risk? Next question, how quickly can we get to 5m and remove 50% of the risk (give or take)

I guess they have done quite well then and haven’t had to let tens of thousands of folk go? First I’ve heard of them I just wanted to know how balanced their opinion would be (health vs economy) when giving their opinion on what our priority should be...

I got it from here... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54889084 Shippers last 10 days keeping the vaccines at the required temp (at least, more if you replace the ice). Then you have at least 3 days in a normal freezer At least 2 weeks factory to arm without needing a special freezer

Who are the Welcome Trust? This CEO, how many people has he had to make redundant this year?

Fuck knows why they are bothering with low temp freezers They are sent from the factory in shippers covered in dry ice that lasts at least 10 days (30 days if the dry ice is replaced). They then last another 3 days in a normal freezer They came out weeks ago talking about doing 1m injections a week, they have dove 700k so far, complete bollocks by the government yet again

Fuck off being a smart arse 👍🏻 We were waiving our cocks in the air 4 weeks back that we were the first to approve a vaccine. Mid Feb is another 7 weeks off, by which point the government have had 3 months to vaccinate folk. They only need to do 5m and half the risk has gone, surely as the risk deteriorates we will move down the Tiers Normal might well be the summer but people wont stand for being in Tier 4 until summer

Of course you can’t, but the bottle neck isn’t getting it in the country, as Casino has said it’s complexity after that. GP’s surgeries worrying they might not get through a whole 900 injections, fucking about with consent forms ffs I wonder how many of the millions of people who have lost their jobs signed a consent form for that? Its bollocks

If we can get 15m vaccinated then 99% of the risk goes That would take 12 weeks in a normal year, if we can increase the number of injections per week 2 fold then it should be done by March If we aren’t all in Tier 1 or 2 by mid February I will be very disappointed

Appreciate that you have inside info But I still can’t help being thoroughly pissed off with it all, a few weeks a go we were swinging our dicks in peoples faces that we were first to approve the vaccine. The plan then was 1m a week with 5m injections this year, so far we aren’t even at 1m So something has gone drastically wrong since then for them to be so far off what they said, it’s a fucking shit show yet again! We are talking about fucking up millions of lives with further lock downs, making even more people unemployed, it’s bollocks. I’d rather the NHS collapse in all honesty, fuck it, times up for me

We vaccinate 15m people in a 12 week period every Winter against Flu Granted that’s only 1 jab, but still over 1m injections per week in a normal year with no pandemic / health disaster in mid flow If we can’t ramp that up to 2m or even 3m injections a week with unlimited resources to go out then the NHS should be shut down

Pointless ordering 15m of them for £300m if we can’t get 5m out in 6-8 weeks, with supposedly infinite resources to go at Think we posted a link on here from the BBC that said they are shipped in dry ice that keeps them at the right temperature for at least 10 days (longer if you top up the dry ice). You then get another 3 days in a normal freezer. So 2 weeks minimum without requiring anything beyond a standard freezer We are on about making even more people unemployed in January because of all this bollocks. Every 80+ year old should be taken to the vaccines if thats what’s needed, in a bloody stretched limo if it comes to it

A full roll out is irrelevant Van Tam said the most vulnerable 15m account for 99% of the risk to the NHS. The most vulnerable 5m (over 80’s), account for half of the risk! Get them done and the risk of the NHS collapsing also halves The 15m VT will be on about will likely be the same 15m that get the Winter Flu vaccine each year over a 12 week period. Granted this needs two jabs but if we can’t increase the rate of distribution by x2 or even x3 fold given the importance of it, then it’s a complete shit show

More importantly, where are they up to with the vaccine? Only need to get 5m done and 50% of the risk goes So 50k cases a day has the same impact on the NHS as 25k cases a day had a few weeks back Along with all the so far unused nightingales, extra ventilators etc - We shouldn’t be facing an NHS collapse in January / February

I’d let others look at legal text, this summary in the FT makes out that FS are ‘uncertain’, fuck knows why something as important as FS are left to be uncertain! The current system is completely frictionless, it’s uncertain if the new system will be frictionless or not. This should have been our most important thing, the sector generates more than any other... https://www.ft.com/content/8e6db389-9e09-4c00-9b49-687a2dafd2ca 4. Financial services The City of London will exit the EU’s single market for financial services at the end of the Brexit transition period on December 31. Both sides have said that the new market access arrangements for UK and EU financial services companies should be based on unilateral decisions by Britain and the bloc, rather than be provided for in the trade agreement. These so-called equivalence decisions involve each side evaluating whether the other’s financial services regulations are as tough as its own. Banks and traders have acknowledged that the proposed system is more piecemeal than existing arrangements, and less stable. The EU did not announce any fresh equivalence decisions on UK access to the bloc’s markets alongside the trade agreement on Thursday, resulting in uncertainty in key areas including share trading and derivatives. The two sides plan to put in place a regulatory dialogue on financial services based on a separate memorandum of understanding.

Free Trade on goods (deficit in the EU’s favour) No free trade on services (deficit in our favour) Given services is such a big part of our economy that’s a massive let down, it will mean a smaller economy as jobs will need to be ‘based’ within the EU to avoid tariffs (particularly damaging for financial services) What’s the upside, a potential free trade with the US? This UK:EU deal makes a UK:US deal less likely as we could essentially become a back door into the US for EU goods, that won’t be acceptable to the yanks by any stretch of the imagination As of January 1st we will have a worse set of trade deals than we have now, for GDP growth anyway, how long should we expect to be waiting until our trade deals are making a positive contribution? (which is what it was meant to be all about) Also makes me laugh that we have ridded ourselves of the ECJ (which had both British and European judges in it don’t forget) to a new court (yet to be named) that will have both British & European judges presiding over issues involving U.K.:EU trade The Emperors New Clothes springs to mind

Great news on the face of it, a deal is infinitely better than no deal, or though no clarity on services which is the majority of our economy let’s see the detail

I was only joking pal Although I’m hopeful that we can finally secure the services of Pepe this window, that ones been so close to getting over the line for a few years now