birch-chorley

The players aren’t even kneeling for the BLM political group apparently, they are doing it for anti racism. The fans aren’t booing anti racism, they are booing the political BLM group Time to strip the BLM element out of it, let kick it out take its place, keep the knee if needs be and folk want to continue it. The BLM brand is toxic for many, anti racism isn't an issue

Economists have a no deal BREXIT taking about 3% off our GDP, similar to the Covid projection (net of the likely bounce in 2021), calling it a disaster or not is semantics I suppose but it isn’t good for the country that’s for sure However, if we can gain incremental trade deals with other countries to off set the decline with the EU then it’s a different story, likely to take years kind! Cutting the wheat from the chaff your looking at either China or the US, anything else is just meaningless in comparison to our relationship with Europe. Striking a deal with China is difficult at the best of times, throw in Hong Kong and it’s even further away. The US trade deal will be the key that makes or breaks BREXIT. But then again, it’s likely you will see an EU:US deal now Biden is in so even if we do get a trade deal with the Yanks, will it end up being truly incremental?

Aye Generally BlackAfrican perform much better than Black Caribbean (and white, for education anyway) colour of skin can’t be the fundamental issue The fact that the best performing groups are Chinese and Indian supports that further

I keep hearing that Central London is a ghost town I imagine central London NHS capacity is benefitting from that to be fair

I’d swap that for 10 years unfettered financial services rights

I think everyone is clear that the deal on the table with the EU will definitely shrink our GDP as a result of less trade with the EU Any sign of the upside that was promised yet with the rest of the world? How long will we have to wait for that? Covid has smashed GDP hard enough, we can’t be waiting years for the upside required just to off set the EU decline

Aye Yet our economy is on track to decline at between x3 or even x4 what theirs will Even Italy’s economy will perform significantly better than ours Spain is about the same as us that way, only Argentina out of the G20 a will come out worse than us (economically)

Seem to be upper mid table in the G20 according to this... https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107572/covid-19-value-g20-stimulus-packages-share-gdp/ Not sure why UK isn’t shown, think we are on track to spunk £400bn though, which is just shy of 20% of GDP, that would put us considerably higher than the US. However their 13% might just be year to date, our £400bn is a full year projection, safe to assume no massive variance in support though

I shared the total Covid deaths before per capita If the U.K. had the same death rate per million of population then we would have 5k less dead people than we have Based on current trajectory, again your probably looking at us both ending up about flat with each other

Don’t see why fishing waters 100m out at sea should be looked at any differently than financial services, car manufacturing etc We want a comprehensive deal that allows us to trade freely with them and visa versa

Firstly, be careful you may get told off for using total deaths rather than excess, what are the US excess deaths? I’ve got them at 300k vs the U.K. at 75k so 4:1 vs 5:1 population ration. By that measure the U.K. has performed 20% worse than the US per capita for excess deaths. Based on the current trajectory it’s likely to finish about the same I’d imagine, yet the US economy has performed 3 or even 4 times better than the UK’s (GDP) I’d snap your hand off for that

It’s our water, they want to fish in it It’s their banking system, the city of London wants to fish in that

Aye, just reading similar, Macron ready to Veto the deal, which wouldn’t be good news But then I remembered that France don’t have sovereignty and Brussels controls everything so Macron can’t do anything about it But then I also remembered the sovereignty argument was a load of old bollocks, France have a veto and can stop anything they don’t like, just like we had a veto and could have done the same at any point All very confusing this sovereignty stuff

To be fair, it was someone else that said ‘they didn’t realise what a mess America were in’ I was just pointing out that based on the top line numbers they have performed slightly better than us for deaths (total or excess) but significantly better than us economically - They are unquestionable facts as we sit here today If anyone would prefer our total numbers over theirs then they need to give their heads a wobble

Probably strategy, so leadership

Ok then, so we have done a lot better than the US Crackers

I think your clutching at straws, we’ve had a shocker with this from start to finish I’d understand if I was using some strange method to measure cases or excess deaths, I’m simply looking at the tables that get published on a regular basis by many media outlets / institutions. If the data wasn’t relevant then nobody would look at sharing it. Each day when they release total number of cases / deaths you don’t see anyone asking for the numbers to be pro rata based on population density Besides, countries like America, whilst vast, still have huge numbers who live on top of each other in densely populated Towns and Cities. It really isn’t a vastly different comparison to the U.K. My point is, I’d take their top line numbers any day over ours, those figures would have meant less deaths and a much better economic picture for the U.K.

Ok USA has had 300k excess deaths vs our 75k, which is a 4:1 ratio, population ratio is 5:1, so using excess deaths per capita the US has performed even better than the U.K. than if you look simply at Covid deaths per capita. In fact even with another spike now they are unlikely to overtake us in excess deaths per capita Meanwhile their economy has performed significantly better than ours, by 3 or even 4 fold, predominantly because of less restrictions on business / the economy

Ok, put it this way, if we had the same death rate per capita as the USA then we would have 5k less deaths so far If our GDP only was only to shrink by 3% (US projection) this year rather than 11% (our projection) our GDP would be £150bn better off this fiscal. For context that’s the total cost of running the NHS for a year, that sort of GDP drives around £50bn of additional tax revenue (the cost of running all of our high schools each year) Anyone who thinks America has done worse than we have needs their heads testing Plenty countries that are more densely populated countries than the U.K. have done much better for deaths per million (Korea etc). Plenty countries with a similar sized service sector as the U.K. have protected their economy much better than we have (France, Italy, Germany, USA)

I think it’s fair enough to look at total deaths per capita & total GDP. Anything else is over complicating it We will end up with a similar number of deaths (per million) and an economy that’s been hit three times as hard as them I’d take their numbers over ours

Potentially, let’s see where it finishes up (deaths per million), you’d imagine at the current rate they will finish with a marginally higher number than us by the time a vaccine is rolled out However their economy has performed significantly better than ours through this The OECD has us 19 out of the G20, only Argentina will perform worse economically

You can count Russia as Europe to be fair, sure FIFA will given they are in UEFA You can make a solid case for South America again, especially with the 100 year anniversary

Think America have still had less deaths per million than we have Meanwhile their economy has only shrank by a third of what ours has with a similar sized service economy On the face of it I’d snap your hands off for that

To be fair the Russia bid had a massive advantage that it’s the biggest country in the World, with Football pedigree and a World Cup had never been played out that way (Eastern Europe / Central Asia). It was proven to be a good decision as well having put on what many said was a great WC (especially the ones that went over) The Qatar one I can’t get my head around though, mainly because of the size of the place. If it was a joint Middle East bid across 3 or 4 countries then fair enough, stinks really The future is the multi country events, can’t wait for US / Canada / Mexico in 2026. Not sure where the 2030 process is up to, think we are looking at a British bid with Wales & Scotland. Spain & Portugal also interested from UEFA. I think it will go back to South America though with a joint bid from Argentina / Uruguay / Paraguay, its the 100 years anniversary which goes in that bids favour (going back to Uruguay where the first one was). Sure Colombia & Peru are also interested. Any of those would make for great world cups to be fair

If it is based on lost gate receipts then we might not get our ‘fare share’. The club has had season ticket money off many, not sure how many have claimed back mind but still. The gap between what we would have expected and what we have realised won’t be much more than £1m surely? As an example, let’s assume our average gate would have been 12k, average ticket price £10 (think it’s even less), that’s £1.2m a season. Let’s assume 5k season ticket holders haven’t asked for a refund, at £10 a ticket that’s £500k realised. Gap would be £700k based on those numbers, to come out of the £50m grant. Doesn’t include other match day income of course Edit... A bit on the news, league 1 & 2 getting £30m up front with another £20 possible. Rochdale chairman on, talking about a ‘minimum of £375k’