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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

birch-chorley

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Everything posted by birch-chorley

  1. Be there or there about Carlisle come May Very useful
  2. If it comes down to that, you’d like to think the Pfizer one at 90% is given to the most vulnerable / biggest risk then
  3. They have quoted 90%+ haven’t they? Appreciate that the Flu vaccine is different, but isn’t that down to having multiple different strains that require different vaccinations? Covid doesn’t require multiple different vaccines as things stand
  4. Once 15m have been vaccinated and 99% of the risk has gone, it won’t matter if a new variant comes out that spreads 10x as fast. 15m vaccinated is the end of the road for restrictions. Can’t see is going from Tier 4 to nothing. Likely we will move down the Tiers as the risk to the NHS decreases
  5. Port Vale away 13th March? Still chuckle about you holding out hope of making it to Oxford away back in May, right at the peak of national lockdown 1
  6. If the vaccine doesn’t stop the new strain and it’s back to square 1 then I doubt we will carry on as we have for another year no chance Hopefully it still works, no reason to think otherwise thus far? edit, just discussed at the press conference, no reason to think it won’t work
  7. Fuck knows, the 1m vaccinations a week don’t seem to have started very well, that’s disappointing considering we get through about 1m a week for a normal winter flu programme (granted this needs 2 but you’d like to think we could ramp up) I’d be happy with the 5m most vulnerable done by the end of January so we can move into Tier 2 / 1 in Feb with all restrictions gone by the end of Spring
  8. Of course not, but as every million vaccines are rolled out the risk decreases, the risk should rapidly reduce early on as they are given to the most likely to require hospitalisation We should move down the tiers with it Some seem to think we should lock down in Tier 3 or 4 until all 15m have been vaccinated, which would be completely ridiculous
  9. Think it was Van Tam that said the most vulnerable 15m people represent 99% of the risk to the NHS, vulnerable people beyond that represent little risk to the NHS If you look at hospitalisation data, the over 80’s account for around half of the admissions. So you get those done and the risk to the NHS has halved, that’s less than 5m people needing vaccinating to achieve 50% reduction in risk The Tiers are worked out partly based on number of total cases but also by cases in the over 65’s and most importantly hospital capacity. Once the over 80’s have had a vaccine cases in the over 65’s will reduce and the risk to hospitals reaching capacity will halve. That should see the country work back down the Tiers. Clearly we will be in either Tier 1 or 2 until 15m have had it and 99% of the risk has gone but those first 5m vaccinations are the most important
  10. I think locking people down might be going a bit far Asking people to observe restrictions is fair enough If you can ask non vulnerable people to stay at home for Xmas based on their postcode then you can ask vulnerable people in other areas to stay at home based on risk
  11. Correct Seems crazy to me that a vulnerable person in one part of the country is ‘allowed’ to mix with more people on Xmas day than a non vulnerable person in another part of the country The ask from the government should be for all vulnerable people to stay at home for Xmas no matter what part of the country they come from. Rather than this nonsense of ‘don’t hug your granny on Xmas day’
  12. Aye, but the over 80’s account for half of all the risk to the NHS, get those 3.4m done and half the risk to the NHS disappears, with it the chances of the NHS collapsing Once those 3.4m have had their second dose we should be able to operate with the country in Tier 1 or 2. Then we have another 12m people to get through in order to reduce the risk to the NHS by 99%. At which point it should be business as usual whilst the rest of the country gets sorted
  13. just had a look, found this article which makes for interesting reading... https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833 Interesting detail on the complexity of the low temperature requirement, the freezer boxes that the vaccines are shipped from can last at least 10 days (30 days if you top up the dry ice every 5 days), you then get 3.5 days on them once you have put them in a normal freezer. Based on that, worst case you’ve got 2 weeks without needing a specialist freezer! With regards numbers, we should have had 10m vaccines (5m doses) in December, that was reduced to 4m (2m doses). Still feels like we are way behind with only 500k injections done after 2 weeks
  14. If we haven’t got 5m people vaccinated by end of January then it’s way off what we’re they saying a few weeks back Get 5m vulnerable vaccinated, get us all into Tier 1 or 2 whilst the other 10m vulnerable are being sorted Surely those first 5m can be done by Mid February latest?
  15. That’s bollocks though isn’t it It would be true if we weren’t rolling out a vaccine, but we have 1 already getting circulated with more to follow very soon So in reality the end game for all this bollocks shouldn’t be more than 8-12 weeks away (15m get vaccinated, 99% of the risk goes away) If you locked down in January to a certain extent (similar to November) then by the time the end of January is here at least 5m should have been vaccinated, meaning half of the risk to the NHS has gone You could open us all up in Tier 1 or 2 from then and the NHS wouldn’t collapse, job done
  16. On that We we’re having to short orders yesterday Stock available, customers who want it Cant get the vehicles / drivers as so many are caught up in that bollocks
  17. If only they had prioritised the whole thing based on economic contribution rather than protecting the vulnerable The NHS would have collapsed but we would have the money to rebuild it. Instead we’ve saved the NHS and will now fuck it over for decades with a smaller budget
  18. Another year, behave If the vulnerable aren’t vaccinated by the end of February then something has gone very very wrong By which time, it all needs fucking off anyway, NHS collapse or not.
  19. What do all the roid lads do down at your muscle gym?
  20. Still sounds like a fair question to ask though, vaccinating inside care homes was certainly discussed a few weeks back as an efficient approach They knew all this complexity when they said they hoped to make 5m injections in December, 2 weeks in they have done 10% of that number Feels like we are way behind
  21. Is that such a stupid idea, hundreds of highly vulnerable all under 1 roof Part of the reason why the vaccine programmes work so well in schools is that you have them all in 1 place. When it finally comes round to doing kids I’d very much expect them to do it in schools rather than GP’s given the learnings from the childhood immunisation programme
  22. Van Tam should fuck off then I’m not sure anyone of sane mind said it will be as easy as taking Yoghurt out the fridge However with £400bn spent and the economy burning down I’d say it’s a bigger priority than anything else. They should be clear on where we are vs target (target of 5m injections in December), not giving shitty answers to the U.K. public
  23. I found the 21 trucks piece on line, it didn’t say how many that equates to, just that it’s a lot higher than 500k If the bottle neck is genuinely getting it in the U.K. then make it clear Daily briefings should include all vaccination data, number of doses received, number administered out, expectation over the coming weeks
  24. If GP’s surgeries can roll out 15m winter flu vaccines every year on top of millions more MMR, travel vaccines etc then they should be able to deal with this as well, or at least part of it Add in Hospitals doing their bit with some other resources such as a drive through centre or something along those lines and we should be able to do at least 1m a week The fact that we’ve had millions land in the country yet have only got 500k out would indicate that the bottle neck is at our end
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