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Yeah it’s time for me to bow out. Don’t want to piss off folk just wanting a bit of banter. And I’m an argumentative sod. I know. Genuinely hope everyone comes through this on the other side unscathed. Good luck.

That was the post on here where I first saw it. I then talked about it in terms of comparisons of daily death rates with Belgium with respect to a lag. So you are wrong. As per.

I didn’t originally post it. Blame whoever it was that did. I saw it and thought it pertinent to a discussion that was not sensationalised in any way. I realise you don’t do nuance but come on....

@peelyfeet Why don’t the nation figures add up to the UK one? Is NI always excluded in death count as well as testing?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52197594 Seems women have a much better chance with this than men.

I think the point I was making about lag - was in the post you're talking about. Perhaps clumsily expressed. But it was not trying to suggest we're doing anything malevolent and I think its clearly not saying that.

The death rate argument is not relevant. If we armed a few thousand people tomorrow and let them loose and they gunned down a few hundred thousand folk between them its true that many of those people might have died at some point in the next year anyway. But a) we've no way of knowing who and b) it is still just as horrendous. If you're lucky and have a mild winter and a less virulent flu strain that year you may even maintain a stablish death rate....it doesn't mean a) its a good thing or b) we should play it down.

The data shows that each day there is an under-reporting. Its not up for dispute. The reason for it is a lag - so the true deaths per day lag behind. Nobody is suggesting its a sinister thing - my point was merely that you need to understand whether that applies in say Belgium or anywhere else, and what the lag is before you make comparisons. The data catches itself up, but if ypu're looking for example at a country with a 5 day lag, vs our 3 day vs say 2 day you'll see different daily reporting. Nobody is saying the totals are wrong just that we have a lag in the data - that was all.

The death toll is 850 something today it seems. I think the angst and fear is warranted to be honest. We're seeing the same pattern as Italy. Its horrific.

Yes fair point - we're X numbers of days behind is a good way to look at it. It isn't about causing alarm I guess its about understanding what it is we're actually seeing in the numbers. So the peak will happen before we have it confirmed in data etc.... But the figures aren't misleading. It's clear what he's saying is true and I think its question of presentation. However you view today's figure it is horrendous.

Is that relevant to the twitter feed's analysis regarding the daily reporting of COVID-19 deaths?

I was going off this twitter feed that had been posted earlier in the thread.... https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960?s=20

Depends on reporting - no idea how Belgium are reporting theirs, but earlier UK data suggested we're seeing an up to 80% lag in reporting - in that most single days reporting are 80% lower than reality. Hence we may be at the same level. Plus we're not looking at non-hospital deaths. It is why the comparison of daily deaths directly is discouraged because everyone is reporting in a different way.

I'd heard over 800...850...hope its wrong. Just a text someone sent. Might be a lie. No idea how they'd know.

Nobody can know when flights can resume. So any date is simply a company trying to grow their sales. Its impossible to say because its not just the UK to decide.