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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

peelyfeet

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peelyfeet last won the day on October 27 2020

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  1. I don't think your defiantely wrong - the conclusion I'm drawing is - they don't know whats going to happen because the succes is based on how many vaccines they can get in us, the take up of the vaccines in younger age groups, and exactly how well they work in middle aged, which I think is why they've given themselves 5 weeks - they're claiming that it takes that long to see a difference, which is bollocks, it takes that long to see the deaths, but they'll get the gist of whats happening after 2-3 weeks. If they can get the vaccine numbers up by an extra million a week, it will make a massive difference long term.
  2. have a read of what sage think, if you can be arsed, its not a light read! https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963381/S1102_Children_s_Task_and_Finish_Group_update_to_17th_December_2020_paper_on_children__schools_and_transmission.pdf
  3. The hospitalisations in under 50s isn't much different than 50-69 - (it's a lot lower than the over 70s,) but the deaths are much lower - the hsopitals will be busy but much less deaths.
  4. It's not happening - they know loads more people may die because they haven't been vaccinated in time, but it seems they would rather chance that than delay opening up a bit. The modelling reports I'm looking at do not look good at all - which is probably why they're doing the 5 week review between each unlocking. I just don't unerstand the strategy, schools are a high risk, Sage say it going to increase the R rate by bettwen 10% and 50% - so why not vaccinate the teachers and parents if you wan them open early? I don't get it - they could do the teachers in a weekend.
  5. Sage have just said that with starting to open up in 2 weeks, they think there's going to be another 30k covid deaths between now and June and, if they get the timings wrong another 120k on top after that. I've read some of the modelling, it's all over the place - they haven't got a scooby, mainly because they dont know exactly how efficacious the vaccine is going to be in younger ages yet and they dont know how many vaccines they can deliver, FFS. Hopefully we'll have a hot as fuck spring and everyone gets the wndows open and spends time outdoors.
  6. Hope its some sort of phase - Bojo is on in 15 mins so I'm sure we'll find out asap
  7. haha - if you do the maths, It appears daft mate - if you want everyone back in school fair enough, it has lots of dvantages, but why not vaccinate all the teachers and parents to make it really low risk beforehand - by end of easter, which means 2 weeks more of online school for most, they could do an extra 15 million - that would be all the teachers and schol workers plus the vast majority of parents. It's taken us a year to get 14 million with antibodies from natutral infection, all the lockdowns and restrictions, all the shit - we could literally do the same by having 2 more weeks online learning and having a tragetted vaccine progmamme - makes no sense to me at all. Some poor fuckers parents are probably going to die for the sake of two weeks in school, and when I say poor, they probably will be, some single parent asthmatic from Breightmet.
  8. Realistically, it's likely that about 14 million of the uk population have had it, and 17.5 million have had one shot, so back of a fag packet, probably 4 million of them have had both the virus and the vaccine, so about 27.5 million are safe for now, which leaves 40 mill who aren't, we could get that down to 30 mill immedialtley safe if we waited until after Easter, with another 5 mill who will have been vaccinated and would be safe a few weeks later, when the antibodies kick in - seems like a no brainer to me, I dont understand why you'd risk the health of 10 million people, many who are going to be the age of secondary school parents. why wouldn't you let the 27.5 million safe have more freedoms first - get the parents vaccinated, oldest first, then send the kids back in - seems bonkers to me, for the sake of a few weeks, after all we've gone through.
  9. Hospitalisation rate is still high in under 60s though, they just don't die anywhere near as much as the oldies when they get in there - in Israel they've got more under 60s in hospital with covid than over 60s for the first time in a year. using 5-17 year olds as the base group - increased chance of hospitalisation, according to CDC, in the non vaccinated are; 30 - 39yr old X10 40 - 49 yr old X15 50 - 64 yr old X25 65 - 74 yr old X35 75 - 84 yr old X55 I just think it's an illogical risk - we are vaccinating at a massivley higher number than the daily infection number, - it's roughly a 380K benefit every day - there's got to be a break even point somewhere, but why not do a phase in for a few weeks to be safer instead of lumping them all in, in one go - I don't think anyone would be too bothered with that, if it means some kids have an extra few week at home, for the sake of caution, it can't be that bad surely?? - if they get it wrong, it takes much longer to get the numbers down than vice versa.
  10. It's just a risk I don't think they should be taking for the sake of 2 weeks more online schooling - I don't think the benefit out weighs the risk - 10 million more people safe for the sake of 2 weeks of online school. Start to open up - yes by all means, but open up the activities least likely to have large scale infection first and go from there - doing stuff outside is multiple times safer than indoors - let us go to the pub outside, let the kids play with their mates outside before you put 9 million kids indoors for 5 hours a day 7 days a week, then send them home to mainly unvaccinated parents. Just seems an illogical risk to me, and nobody else has done it so we dont know what the results will be. If there is no phasing, I'll be suprised if we don't see a large rise in the non vaccinated and under 60s in hospital in April, and I'll be surprised if the govmt don't think this too -so they must be willing to let it happen. They haven't had a good track record over the last year, I think they're making the same mistake that they've made again, and I think they'll get loads of flack for it. It seems the policy all along has been to crack on with as many deaths and illness as we can handle, instead of getting the infection rate realy low and letting us have longer periods out of lockdown, and preventing deaths and illness. hope they do some sort of phasing, will have to see
  11. It should be phased in, the youngest first in areas of low infection, for a few days at a time - they are least likely to become ill, and their parents are on average younger too - see how the infection rates go, then take it from there. Imagine if you're an old parent, without a vaccine in a poor area, with high infection, like Middlesbrough - 250 per 100k versus a young parent in a well off area with a low infection rate, like cheltenham - 28 per 100k.
  12. If they don't do a phased return, I think it's fucking stupid. Israel have a phased return - infants and last 2 years of secondary in for 1 day so far, only in areas with low cases - all the rest not back in for another month - they have vaccinated 50% of the population with at least one shot, nearly all eligable adults over 30yrs old - 30% have had 2 shots - on 8th March we will have done 25% with about 2% having 2 shots. An extra 4 weeks of closed schools, is an extra 10 million vaccinated, many in the age group that are parents of secondary and college kids. Almost all of those 10 million would have massivley reduced risk of getting ill, or if they do, getting ill seriously, less chance of passing it on, etc, a few weeks after the vaccine. They're bascially saying it's a herd immunity experiment for school kids and their parents, everyone back in, off you go, let's see how the numbers rise, and if it's manageable, FFS. Cases in September, before the kids went back last time had been below 1,000 a day for 10 weeks, - we are still at 11,000 today, and the current strain is more virulent than back then. It took us less than 3 weeks to go from 10k to 20k when the schools were open last time, with the case rises initially in the young and middle aged - it will happen again. Have they learnt nothing! short term pain = long term gain. Hospitalisations as a % of the infected in the 30 - 60 yr old age is high - they don't die anywhere near as much as the oldies, but they still end up in hospital in large numbers. 2 fucking weeks - extend the summer term by 2 weeks FFS many kids don't give a shit about the online learning, it's the socialising, playing outside, having a game of footy that they're missing and which will restore mental health and wellbeing and is masivley less infection risk - let them do that instead - having indoor classes 2 weeks before easter aint going to give them much more benefit than waiting until after.
  13. We've got to admit, it's been shite and needs improvement. Even when my lad signed, it was a let down, there was no photo op, no player or manager or ex player, just a load of parents in a room filling in forms. Nothing special, no celebration. Of the lads who currently play in my lads year, 1 supports bwfc, most of them have been there since 6yrs old. They get free tickets to every home match. Theres 1 or 2 who go regularly, some never go, others maybe 3 or 4 times a season. The kids don't know who the players or the manager are, or anything of the history. I'm talking 13 and 14 year olds whove been playing in the academy for 8 years. When I told my son that Jimmy Phillips had left, he said "who's he?"
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