The Run In

[jmjhb]

I posted this a couple of years back when we were in League 2, I think an Exeter fan does it, quite interesting 

http://www.probs4.club/team/Bolton

10% chance of autos currently 

Also suggests 89 points will be enough for automatic promotion

Edited February 15, 2023 by jmjhb

[Tonge moor green jacket]

3 minutes ago, jmjhb said:

I posted this a couple of years back when we were in League 2

http://www.probs4.club/team/Bolton

10% chance of autos currently 

Also suggests 89 points will be enough for automatic promotion

Christ that's some going. Left it though as the eyelids started closing after a few charts.

 

[bwfc2003]

For us to go above SW - we need to beat them away and then pick up 3 more wins than them

For us to go above Plymouth we need 4 more wins than them

[RUREADY2ROLL]

10 minutes ago, bwfc2003 said:

For us to go above SW - we need to beat them away and then pick up 3 more wins than them

For us to go above Plymouth we need 4 more wins than them

And for those reasons I am out and won’t be investing. Could happen but very unlikely as Plymouth have an easy ish run in.

don’t fear the rest in the playoffs lottery

 

[RoadRunnerFan]

538 has us to finish 3rd on today's update from 5th yesterday. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/

Edited February 15, 2023 by RoadRunnerFan

[Burndens Bogs]

2 hours ago, Mantra said:

5 games ago (after derby loss) our record was

12 W

8 D

7 L

 

44 points from 27 games

1.62 ppg

 

now it’s 

17 W

8 D

7 L

 

59 points from 32 games
1.84 ppg

looks much healthier

After 32 games last season, we had 48 points.

JSL

[Lostock Whites]

There's a lot of football to be played, looking up if a couple of results go our way and continue our form we are looking at automatics potentially.

If we look down, some teams have 2/3 games in hand on us, and if all them teams win those games, we are just about 6th and could even drop out of play offs if our form dwindles.

As fans it is too easy to look ahead and to dream, it is exciting, but like the old cliche 'every game as it comes'.

Next 6 fixtures:

Wycombe (A)

Port Vale (H)

Pompey (A)

Morecambe (A)

Ipswich (H)

Sheff Weds (A)

Then after Sheff weds there's a 3 week period that we don't play any league games, whilst our rivals play 2/3 matches.

It will be much clearer after that. But let's try and get as many points as possible.

[RUREADY2ROLL]

30 minutes ago, Lostock Whites said:

There's a lot of football to be played, looking up if a couple of results go our way and continue our form we are looking at automatics potentially.

If we look down, some teams have 2/3 games in hand on us, and if all them teams win those games, we are just about 6th and could even drop out of play offs if our form dwindles.

As fans it is too easy to look ahead and to dream, it is exciting, but like the old cliche 'every game as it comes'.

Next 6 fixtures:

Wycombe (A)

Port Vale (H)

Pompey (A)

Morecambe (A)

Ipswich (H)

Sheff Weds (A)

Then after Sheff weds there's a 3 week period that we don't play any league games, whilst our rivals play 2/3 matches.

It will be much clearer after that. But let's try and get as many points as possible.

After that the last 8 league games are very much winnable so get through these well and who knows

[Traf]

We might as well just win them all and remove any doubt.

[green genie]

10 minutes ago, Traf said:

We might as well just win them all and remove any doubt.

101 points. No doubts ? Even allowing for you beating Weds top 2’s max is over 110 and current ppg is 99-100

[woolli]

26 minutes ago, green genie said:

101 points. No doubts ? Even allowing for you beating Weds top 2’s max is over 110 and current ppg is 99-100

Stop trying to spoil things for us!

[JOGLER]

The average points for 2nd place in league one is 87.

The maximum ever is 94.

Averaging 2 points per game for the rest of our season will give us 87 points.

Averaging 2 points per game is widely recognised as being the requirement to get promoted... So, if we have promotion ambitions, we only need to match the norm, which I think we're more than capable of.

Being slightly better and therefore earning even more points would be useful and, in my opinion, possible.

 

[globaldiver]

2 minutes ago, JOGLER said:

The average points for 2nd place in league one is 87.

The maximum ever is 94.

Averaging 2 points per game for the rest of our season will give us 87 points.

Averaging 2 points per game is widely recognised as being the requirement to get promoted... So, if we have promotion ambitions, we only need to match the norm, which I think we're more than capable of.

Being slightly better and therefore earning even more points would be useful and, in my opinion, possible.

 

10 wins and we’ll (probably) be straight up.

[DirtySanchez]

24 minutes ago, JOGLER said:

The average points for 2nd place in league one is 87.

The maximum ever is 94.

Averaging 2 points per game for the rest of our season will give us 87 points.

Averaging 2 points per game is widely recognised as being the requirement to get promoted... So, if we have promotion ambitions, we only need to match the norm, which I think we're more than capable of.

Being slightly better and therefore earning even more points would be useful and, in my opinion, possible.

 

But if Sheff Wed and Plymouth match the norm then it counts for nothing, in terms of automatically promoted

Don't see a reason why they couldn't achieve that and we would 

 

 

 

[Mantra]

Worst case scenario when all the teams catch up to our games played.

1. Sheffield win their 2 games in hand     = 71 points

2. Plymouth win their 1 game in hand      = 70 points

3. Barnsley win their 3 games in hand.    = 62 points

4. Ipswich win their 1 game in hand         = 60 points

5. Derby win their 2 games in hand         = 60 points

6. Bolton                                                     = 59 points

7. Wycombe win their 2 games in hand   = 56 points

8. P'bro win their 3 games in hand           = 53 points

We drop to 6th, 11 points off autos. 3 points clear of 7th.

I think on current form, playoffs are virtually secured barring a huge meltdown. So it's less the teams from 3rd-8th I'll be watching, as we'll be facing one of them in the playoffs regardless. But more so Plymouth and Sheffield.

There's no way that the worst case scenario plays out, someone will drop points either above, or below us, or both.

But it's quite likely that Sheffield and Plymouth both win their games in hand. Still a bit gap to close, 11 points in 15 games. Means we need to get the equivalent of 4 more wins than Plymouth or Sheffield to leapfrog them.

 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

I explained this yesterday. They can't all win their games in hand- some of them play each other before they catch up.

If my research is correct, then 5th is the lowest, and that allows for them to maximise their points (as near as possible).

 

Just keep winning, and we'll go up.

[paulhanley]

It's unlikely but not impossible that Plymouth or Sheff Weds will have a poor run of form. Sadly we're not the only ones chasing - albeit we are the team in the chasing pack with the best form. We've a slim chance. It's going to be a fun couple of months ahead regardless!

[White on Tyne]

I think just make sure we are on good form going into play offs and we’ll smash anyone. Let the algorithms take care of themselves. 

[Mantra]

I'm not sure I can handle the playoffs although it would be an incredible feeling to do it the hard way.

31 points from 15 to reach 90 points might see us achieve automatic promotion... that's 10 wins and a draw from 15, losing 4.

 

Away form is key: Wycombe, Portsmouth, Morecambe, Wednesday, Exeter, Oxford, Burton, Bristol Rovers

All very difficult for their own reasons, a mix of long travels, shithouse cunt teams, and a promotion contender. Only really Oxford and Bristol I feel positive we'd win, as they won't be playing for anything and aren't the worst journeys/bogey teams/styles of play.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Mantra

[barrycowdrill]

I know similar has been posted at the top but this gives a simpler view. Games remaining for the top 5 against the top 5. Derby 3 and all away. Plymouth in the best position.. 

[JOGLER]

1 hour ago, DirtySanchez said:

But if Sheff Wed and Plymouth match the norm then it counts for nothing, in terms of automatically promoted

Don't see a reason why they couldn't achieve that and we would 

 

 

 

Because we're better 😁😁😁

[DirtySanchez]

27 minutes ago, barrycowdrill said:

I know similar has been posted at the top but this gives a simpler view. Games remaining for the top 5 against the top 5. Derby 3 and all away. Plymouth in the best position.. 

Barnsley still have 

Derby (h)

Portsmouth (h)

Plymouth (h)

Wycombe (a)

Sheff Wed (h)

Ipswich (h) 

Peterborough (h)

Few draws in those could do us a big favour 

[barrycowdrill]

5 minutes ago, DirtySanchez said:

Barnsley still have 

Derby (h)

Portsmouth (h)

Plymouth (h)

Wycombe (a)

Sheff Wed (h)

Ipswich (h) 

Peterborough (h)

Few draws in those could do us a big favour 

Jesus. They’re out of it for me. Too many tough games and too inconsistent. They’re in a fight with another couple for 6th 

[Eddie]

I really don’t understand why Ipswich are 8/15 to get promoted and we’re 7/2. I know in reality it means nothing (they were 1/8 at one point) but I just can’t understand what they see as being so different between the 2.

[jmjhb]

2 minutes ago, Eddie said:

I really don’t understand why Ipswich are 8/15 to get promoted and we’re 7/2. I know in reality it means nothing (they were 1/8 at one point) but I just can’t understand what they see as being so different between the 2.

They spent loads and they're underperformed according to that xG nonsense, basically